{"source":"gemini","id":"144744","ticker":"ALITORETIRE","slug":"when-will-justice-alito-retire-from-the-supreme-court","title":"When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?","description":"When will Samuel Alito retire as a Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court?","image":"https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/images/Supreme_court_303a1c43-e71e-4556-b191-e2ce426a566f.avif","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-16T20:40:43.312000Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T04:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1425.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.77714920043945,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Courts"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Mar 1, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.99,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-05T19:59:10.460994Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T19:59:10.460994Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T20:54:44.788267Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/ALITORETIRE/when-will-justice-alito-retire-from-the-supreme-court","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"gemini","id":"144744-366289","event_id":"144744","slug":"GEMI-ALITORETIRE-MAR127","question":"Before Mar 1, 2027","group_item_title":"Before Mar 1, 2027","description":"This market will resolve to YES if Samuel Alito retires as a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court before Mar 1, 2027. The outcome will be verified using statements from Samuel Alito or the Supreme Court, and reporting from Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation. If Samuel Alito leaves the role due to death while holding the position, contracts on this event may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless he formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If Samuel Alito vacates the role and later re-occupies it, this market may settle based on the initial vacation of the role. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fdfcbcea26386499c8181c18ff010cbcc?alt=media&token=89aa4090-3ce9-416e-a552-f8a535b684d5&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.99,0.99],"probability":0.99,"spread":0.98,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-16T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-03-01T05:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-08T01:58:24.965555Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-16T23:18:19.623481Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T20:54:45.236366Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/ALITORETIRE/when-will-justice-alito-retire-from-the-supreme-court","event_title":"When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?","chart_24h":[0.99,0.99]},{"source":"gemini","id":"144744-366291","event_id":"144744","slug":"GEMI-ALITORETIRE-NOV126","question":"Before Nov 1, 2026","group_item_title":"Before Nov 1, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to YES if Samuel Alito retires as a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court before Nov 1, 2026. The outcome will be verified using statements from Samuel Alito or the Supreme Court, and reporting from Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation. If Samuel Alito leaves the role due to death while holding the position, contracts on this event may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless he formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If Samuel Alito vacates the role and later re-occupies it, this market may settle based on the initial vacation of the role. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fdfcbcea26386499c8181c18ff010cbcc?alt=media&token=89aa4090-3ce9-416e-a552-f8a535b684d5&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.99,0.99],"probability":0.99,"spread":0.98,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-16T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T04:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-08T01:58:24.965555Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-16T23:18:19.623481Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T20:54:45.236366Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/ALITORETIRE/when-will-justice-alito-retire-from-the-supreme-court","event_title":"When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?","chart_24h":[0.99,0.99]},{"source":"gemini","id":"144744-366292","event_id":"144744","slug":"GEMI-ALITORETIRE-JUL127","question":"Before Jul 1, 2027","group_item_title":"Before Jul 1, 2027","description":"This market will resolve to YES if Samuel Alito retires as a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court before Jul 1, 2027. The outcome will be verified using statements from Samuel Alito or the Supreme Court, and reporting from Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation. If Samuel Alito leaves the role due to death while holding the position, contracts on this event may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless he formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If Samuel Alito vacates the role and later re-occupies it, this market may settle based on the initial vacation of the role. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fdfcbcea26386499c8181c18ff010cbcc?alt=media&token=89aa4090-3ce9-416e-a552-f8a535b684d5&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.23,0.82],"probability":0.23,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-16T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T04:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.13999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-08T03:21:00.598239Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-08T03:20:51.919434Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T20:54:45.236366Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/ALITORETIRE/when-will-justice-alito-retire-from-the-supreme-court","event_title":"When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?","chart_24h":[0.37,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.22,0.23,0.22]},{"source":"gemini","id":"144744-366288","event_id":"144744","slug":"GEMI-ALITORETIRE-JAN127","question":"Before Jan 1, 2027","group_item_title":"Before Jan 1, 2027","description":"This market will resolve to YES if Samuel Alito retires as a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court before Jan 1, 2027. The outcome will be verified using statements from Samuel Alito or the Supreme Court, and reporting from Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation. If Samuel Alito leaves the role due to death while holding the position, contracts on this event may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless he formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If Samuel Alito vacates the role and later re-occupies it, this market may settle based on the initial vacation of the role. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fdfcbcea26386499c8181c18ff010cbcc?alt=media&token=89aa4090-3ce9-416e-a552-f8a535b684d5&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.09,0.95],"probability":0.09,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-16T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.05000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-07T20:28:59.941858Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-07T20:28:48.707385Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T20:54:45.236366Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/ALITORETIRE/when-will-justice-alito-retire-from-the-supreme-court","event_title":"When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?","chart_24h":[0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09]},{"source":"gemini","id":"144744-366290","event_id":"144744","slug":"GEMI-ALITORETIRE-SEP126","question":"Before Sep 1, 2026","group_item_title":"Before Sep 1, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to YES if Samuel Alito retires as a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court before Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be verified using statements from Samuel Alito or the Supreme Court, and reporting from Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation. If Samuel Alito leaves the role due to death while holding the position, contracts on this event may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless he formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If Samuel Alito vacates the role and later re-occupies it, this market may settle based on the initial vacation of the role. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fdfcbcea26386499c8181c18ff010cbcc?alt=media&token=89aa4090-3ce9-416e-a552-f8a535b684d5&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-16T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T04:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-07T21:50:59.102128Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-04T20:07:40.821746Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T20:54:45.236366Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/ALITORETIRE/when-will-justice-alito-retire-from-the-supreme-court","event_title":"When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?","chart_24h":[0.02,0.02]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/gemini/144744","as_of":"2026-08-08T03:40:17.715514Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Gemini): \"When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?\" — top market at 99% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}