{"source":"gemini","id":"15","ticker":"CTRLUSSEN","slug":"which-party-will-win-the-us-senate","title":"Which party will win the U.S. Senate?","description":"Which party will win the U.S. Senate in 2026?","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/1X12y7OhZNqwdNenVwemrA/81a6784737b185a4bd7be2276a69d5cf/Contract_Image.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-23T16:08:43.939000Z","end_date":"2027-02-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":50630.0,"volume_24hr":29.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.384960174560547,"normalized_volume":64.8650894165039,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Congressional"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Republican Party","top_outcome_probability":0.62,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T00:49:49.658689Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T00:49:49.658689Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/CTRLUSSEN/which-party-will-win-the-us-senate","chart_24h":[60.0,29.0],"markets":[{"source":"gemini","id":"15-67","event_id":"15","slug":"GEMI-CTRLUSSEN-GOP","question":"Republican Party","group_item_title":"Republican Party","description":"This contract resolves based on whether the Republican Party controls the U.S. Senate following the 2026 United States midterm elections held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Control is defined as holding the most seats in the Senate based on final, official results. A majority consists of at least 51 seats.\n\nIf two parties hold the same number of seats, control is determined by which party enters government, including consideration of the Vice President’s tie-breaking role. Independents who formally caucus with a party are treated as members of that party.\n\nIf control cannot be determined by seat totals, control is determined by Senate leadership, as reflected by the party affiliation of the President Pro Tempore. The contract resolves to Yes if the Republican Party controls the Senate and to No otherwise.\n\nRead the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/4N0uAFXTLBUpbp1Z7iPjJi/f185eb7d03ccd2e33a41426f215b8b53/Election_Outcomes_-_Terms_and_Conditions.pdf)","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/4jB6qLZD8G2q1zBTFspELZ/b1cc56ba77c2fa83b929f0363beb80ec/Republican.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.62,0.48],"probability":0.62,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-23T00:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-02-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T05:15:06.902282Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T04:34:20.699644Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/CTRLUSSEN/which-party-will-win-the-us-senate","event_title":"Which party will win the U.S. Senate?","chart_24h":[0.61,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62]},{"source":"gemini","id":"15-66","event_id":"15","slug":"GEMI-CTRLUSSEN-DEM","question":"Democratic Party","group_item_title":"Democratic Party","description":"This contract resolves based on whether the Democratic Party controls the U.S. Senate following the 2026 United States midterm elections held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Control is defined as holding the most seats in the Senate based on final, official results. A majority consists of at least 51 seats.\n\nIf two parties hold the same number of seats, control is determined by which party enters government, including consideration of the Vice President’s tie-breaking role. Independents who formally caucus with a party are treated as members of that party.\n\nIf control cannot be determined by seat totals, control is determined by Senate leadership, as reflected by the party affiliation of the President Pro Tempore. The contract resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party controls the Senate and to No otherwise.\n\nRead the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/4N0uAFXTLBUpbp1Z7iPjJi/f185eb7d03ccd2e33a41426f215b8b53/Election_Outcomes_-_Terms_and_Conditions.pdf)","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/6scOV1kBmAiir6ziDF0dhJ/8330fbf5b44d4f7941b6792ceb200b6a/Democrat.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.43,0.58],"probability":0.43,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-23T00:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-02-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T18:17:38.746242Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T18:17:38.746242Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/CTRLUSSEN/which-party-will-win-the-us-senate","event_title":"Which party will win the U.S. Senate?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/gemini/15","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:04:06.475515Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Gemini): \"Which party will win the U.S. Senate?\" — top market at 62% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}