{"source":"gemini","id":"15588","ticker":"HORMUZNORMAL","slug":"when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal","title":"When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?","description":"If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before contract date, then the market resolves to Yes. 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Outcome verified from IMF PortWatch.\n\nRead the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.89,0.19],"probability":0.89,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-08T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-19T23:50:29.822052Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T21:21:55.270221Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/HORMUZNORMAL/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal","event_title":"When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?","chart_24h":[0.89,0.89]},{"source":"gemini","id":"15588-108563","event_id":"15588","slug":"GEMI-HORMUZNORMAL-JULY01","question":"Before July 01, 2026","group_item_title":"Before July 01, 2026","description":"If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IMF PortWatch.\n\nRead the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.31,0.7],"probability":0.31,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-08T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-19T12:54:33.745249Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-19T12:54:33.745249Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/HORMUZNORMAL/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal","event_title":"When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"gemini","id":"15588-108560","event_id":"15588","slug":"GEMI-HORMUZNORMAL-MAY01","question":"Before May 01, 2026","group_item_title":"Before May 01, 2026","description":"If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IMF PortWatch.\n\nRead the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-08T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-05-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-05-01T14:13:16.462000Z","volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/HORMUZNORMAL/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal","event_title":"When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"gemini","id":"15588-108561","event_id":"15588","slug":"GEMI-HORMUZNORMAL-JUNE01","question":"Before June 01, 2026","group_item_title":"Before June 01, 2026","description":"If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IMF PortWatch.\n\nRead the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.04,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-08T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-06-02T13:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-02T17:01:15.575000Z","volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-03T17:08:19.394750Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-02T17:13:01.076750Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/HORMUZNORMAL/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal","event_title":"When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"gemini","id":"15588-108562","event_id":"15588","slug":"GEMI-HORMUZNORMAL-MAY15","question":"Before May 15, 2026","group_item_title":"Before May 15, 2026","description":"If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IMF PortWatch.\n\nRead the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.03,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-08T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-05-15T03:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-05-15T15:16:17.445000Z","volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-16T15:19:33.178921Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-15T15:19:04.519595Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/HORMUZNORMAL/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal","event_title":"When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"gemini","id":"15588-108564","event_id":"15588","slug":"GEMI-HORMUZNORMAL-APRIL15","question":"Before April 15, 2026","group_item_title":"Before April 15, 2026","description":"If the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by IMF PortWatch is above 60 on Apr 15, 2026, then this market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IMF PortWatch. This event is directional.\n\nRead the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-08T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-04-15T03:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-15T12:43:48.433000Z","volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/HORMUZNORMAL/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal","event_title":"When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/gemini/15588","as_of":"2026-06-20T12:59:44.708639Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Gemini): \"When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?\" — top market at 89% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}