{"source":"gemini","id":"301111","ticker":"FED261211","slug":"fed-decision-in-december","title":"Fed decision in December?","description":"Fed decision in December?","image":"https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/images/fed_Contract_Image_0473d1d2-593c-4acf-b619-cc645a4347fb.avif","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T16:34:37.931000Z","end_date":"2026-12-11T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3.7,"volume_24hr":3.7,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":1.8068023920059204,"normalized_volume":1.4267891645431519,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["Economics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Hike 25bps","top_outcome_probability":0.71,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.28,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-03T12:56:22.713361Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-03T12:56:22.713361Z","added_at":"2026-10-02T17:06:30.570614Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FED261211/fed-decision-in-december","chart_24h":[0.0,3.7],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"gemini","id":"301111-735865","event_id":"301111","slug":"GEMI-FED261211-HIKE25","question":"Hike 25bps","group_item_title":"Hike 25bps","description":"If the Federal Reserve increases rates by 25bps on December 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If the scheduled December 8–9 FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled dates, then the strike for “Fed maintains rate” will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media\\&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95\\&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.71,0.3],"probability":0.71,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T16:40:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-11T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.28,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-03T10:01:56.982355Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-03T10:01:56.982355Z","added_at":"2026-10-02T17:06:30.725012Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FED261211/fed-decision-in-december","event_title":"Fed decision in December?","chart_24h":[0.99,0.98,0.73,0.71]},{"source":"gemini","id":"301111-735866","event_id":"301111","slug":"GEMI-FED261211-MAINTAIN","question":"Fed maintains rate","group_item_title":"Fed maintains rate","description":"If the Federal Reserve maintains rates on December 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If the scheduled December 8–9 FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled dates, then this market resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media\\&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95\\&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.27,0.75],"probability":0.27,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T16:40:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-11T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.61,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-03T12:56:23.021265Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-03T12:56:23.021265Z","added_at":"2026-10-02T17:06:30.725012Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FED261211/fed-decision-in-december","event_title":"Fed decision in December?","chart_24h":[0.88,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27]},{"source":"gemini","id":"301111-735863","event_id":"301111","slug":"GEMI-FED261211-CUTGT25","question":"Cut >25bps","group_item_title":"Cut >25bps","description":"If the Federal Reserve decreases rates by more than 25bps on December 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If the scheduled December 8–9 FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled dates, then the strike for “Fed maintains rate” will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media\\&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95\\&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.98],"probability":0.03,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T16:40:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-11T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T19:17:09.792475Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T19:17:09.792475Z","added_at":"2026-10-02T17:06:30.725012Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FED261211/fed-decision-in-december","event_title":"Fed decision in December?","chart_24h":[0.03,0.03]},{"source":"gemini","id":"301111-735864","event_id":"301111","slug":"GEMI-FED261211-CUT25","question":"Cut 25bps","group_item_title":"Cut 25bps","description":"If the Federal Reserve decreases rates by 25bps on December 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If the scheduled December 8–9 FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled dates, then the strike for “Fed maintains rate” will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media\\&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95\\&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.98],"probability":0.03,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T16:40:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-11T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T20:44:10.344132Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T20:44:10.344132Z","added_at":"2026-10-02T17:06:30.725012Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FED261211/fed-decision-in-december","event_title":"Fed decision in December?","chart_24h":[0.04,0.04,0.03]},{"source":"gemini","id":"301111-735867","event_id":"301111","slug":"GEMI-FED261211-HIKEGT25","question":"Hike >25bps","group_item_title":"Hike >25bps","description":"If the Federal Reserve increases rates by more than 25bps on December 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If the scheduled December 8–9 FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled dates, then the strike for “Fed maintains rate” will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media\\&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95\\&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.98],"probability":0.03,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T16:40:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-11T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-03T10:01:56.982355Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-03T10:01:56.982355Z","added_at":"2026-10-02T17:06:30.725012Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FED261211/fed-decision-in-december","event_title":"Fed decision in December?","chart_24h":[0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/gemini/301111","as_of":"2026-10-03T13:04:23.794830Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Gemini): \"Fed decision in December?\" — top market at 71% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}