{"source":"gemini","id":"3909","ticker":"GPT6","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","title":"GPT-6 released by...?","description":"GPT-6 released by...?","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/5mzP1A6iVWhs6jxydP3fne/91b15a829265a9621e7d20068ae3284d/Contract_Image__1_.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-03T17:11:35.674000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T17:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2479.0,"volume_24hr":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.770599365234375,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["AI Models"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.86,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-06T14:24:33.931205Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-06T14:24:33.931205Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/GPT6/gpt-6-released-by","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"gemini","id":"3909-31054","event_id":"3909","slug":"GEMI-GPT6-DEC31","question":"December 31, 2026","group_item_title":"December 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]().","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.86,0.14],"probability":0.86,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T17:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T21:03:20.433247Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/GPT6/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by...?","chart_24h":[0.86,0.86]},{"source":"gemini","id":"3909-31048","event_id":"3909","slug":"GEMI-GPT6-JUN30","question":"June 30, 2026","group_item_title":"June 30, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]().","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.9],"probability":0.12,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T18:17:50.841567Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T14:10:07.533196Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/GPT6/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by...?","chart_24h":[0.12,0.12]},{"source":"gemini","id":"3909-31051","event_id":"3909","slug":"GEMI-GPT6-MAR31","question":"March 31, 2026","group_item_title":"March 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]().","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T17:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-01T04:50:34.634000Z","volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/GPT6/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"gemini","id":"3909-31050","event_id":"3909","slug":"GEMI-GPT6-SEP30","question":"September 30, 2026","group_item_title":"September 30, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]().","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[],"probability":null,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/GPT6/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/gemini/3909","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:18:39.591144Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Gemini): \"GPT-6 released by...?\" — top market at 86% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}