{"source":"gemini","id":"3912","ticker":"GROK5","slug":"grok-5-released-by","title":"Grok 5 released by...?","description":"Grok 5 released by...?","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/5mzP1A6iVWhs6jxydP3fne/91b15a829265a9621e7d20068ae3284d/Contract_Image__1_.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-03T17:11:35.796000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":634.0,"volume_24hr":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.571714401245117,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["AI Models"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.15,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-06T14:24:33.931205Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-06T14:24:33.931205Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/GROK5/grok-5-released-by","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"gemini","id":"3912-31053","event_id":"3912","slug":"GEMI-GROK5-JUN30","question":"June 30, 2026","group_item_title":"June 30, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGrok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]().","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.15,0.91],"probability":0.15,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-13T10:24:53.306238Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-21T01:41:22.755022Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/GROK5/grok-5-released-by","event_title":"Grok 5 released by...?","chart_24h":[0.15,0.15]},{"source":"gemini","id":"3912-31055","event_id":"3912","slug":"GEMI-GROK5-MAR31","question":"March 31, 2026","group_item_title":"March 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGrok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]().","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-01T04:46:24.782000Z","volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/GROK5/grok-5-released-by","event_title":"Grok 5 released by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/gemini/3912","as_of":"2026-06-14T04:06:06.123588Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Gemini): \"Grok 5 released by...?\" — top market at 15% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}