{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/gemini/4021","as_of":"2026-11-04T02:05:40.858914Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Gemini): \"Best AI at the end of 2026?\" — \"Gemini\" leads at 51% across 7 outcomes as of 2026-11-03 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/gemini/4021","source_url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BESTAI26/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026"},"source":"gemini","id":"4021","ticker":"BESTAI26","slug":"best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","description":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","image":"https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/images/Contract_Image__1__c09cff3c-54fb-42e7-9dcf-e0cc6d6b64d5.avif","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T11:46:32.803000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":311958.0,"volume_24hr":9.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.5759096145629883,"normalized_volume":85.6323471069336,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["AI Models"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Gemini","top_outcome_probability":0.51,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.040000000000000036,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-11-03T16:36:08.167716Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T16:36:08.167716Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BESTAI26/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[0.0,9.0],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets_total":7,"markets":[{"source":"gemini","id":"4021-32752","event_id":"4021","slug":"GEMI-BESTAI26-GEMINI","question":"Gemini","group_item_title":"Gemini","description":"If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.\n\nThis event is mutually exclusive.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]()","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.51,0.54],"probability":0.51,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.040000000000000036,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T23:40:57.764431Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T23:40:57.764431Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BESTAI26/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","event_title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.51]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4021-32751","event_id":"4021","slug":"GEMI-BESTAI26-CLAUDE","question":"Claude","group_item_title":"Claude","description":"If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.\n\nThis event is mutually exclusive.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]()","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.42,0.63],"probability":0.42,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T23:40:57.764431Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T23:40:57.764431Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BESTAI26/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","event_title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.42]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4021-32755","event_id":"4021","slug":"GEMI-BESTAI26-CHATGPT","question":"ChatGPT","group_item_title":"ChatGPT","description":"If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.\n\nThis event is mutually exclusive.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]()","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1,0.94],"probability":0.1,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.03,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T23:40:57.764431Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T23:40:57.764431Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BESTAI26/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","event_title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4021-32754","event_id":"4021","slug":"GEMI-BESTAI26-QWEN","question":"Qwen","group_item_title":"Qwen","description":"If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.\n\nThis event is mutually exclusive.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]()","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.99],"probability":0.03,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T17:39:56.370316Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T17:39:56.370316Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BESTAI26/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","event_title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4021-32757","event_id":"4021","slug":"GEMI-BESTAI26-LLAMA","question":"LLaMA","group_item_title":"LLaMA","description":"If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.\n\nThis event is mutually exclusive.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]()","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-27T11:26:17.407912Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-27T11:26:17.407912Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BESTAI26/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","event_title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"gemini","id":"4021-32753","event_id":"4021","slug":"GEMI-BESTAI26-GROK","question":"Grok","group_item_title":"Grok","description":"If x AI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.\n\nThis event is mutually exclusive.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]()","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.94],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.019999999999999997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T17:39:56.370316Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T17:39:56.370316Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BESTAI26/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","event_title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.01]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4021-32756","event_id":"4021","slug":"GEMI-BESTAI26-ERNIE","question":"Ernie","group_item_title":"Ernie","description":"If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.\n\nThis event is mutually exclusive.\n\nRead the full [terms & conditions]()","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T10:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-09-06T22:19:42.307177Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-06T22:19:42.307177Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BESTAI26/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","event_title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":null}]}