{"source":"gemini","id":"4061","ticker":"BRPRES2026","slug":"brazil-presidential-election-winner-2026","title":"Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?","description":"Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/5jpPdRY5JhikNxHj3gN713/a8996081ddce0feeb2e26fb86708bc79/Brazil.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:57:50.352000Z","end_date":"2026-10-11T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8368.0,"volume_24hr":1058.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.956138610839844,"normalized_volume":48.168739318847656,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["International"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","top_outcome_probability":0.45,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-05-30T02:29:45.161390Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-30T02:29:45.161390Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BRPRES2026/brazil-presidential-election-winner-2026","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"gemini","id":"4061-33283","event_id":"4061","slug":"GEMI-BRPRES2026-LULA","question":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","group_item_title":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","description":"This market will resolve on whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/EwG06BmRIsVEaHnSgCnhY/b5654b0f99ba35149db4d21033f31273/Luiz_Ina%C3%8C_cio_Lula_da_Silva.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.45,0.64],"probability":0.45,"spread":0.09,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-11T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-29T22:39:47.829622Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-28T23:19:22.390572Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BRPRES2026/brazil-presidential-election-winner-2026","event_title":"Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"gemini","id":"4061-33286","event_id":"4061","slug":"GEMI-BRPRES2026-FBOLSO","question":"Flávio Bolsonaro","group_item_title":"Flávio Bolsonaro","description":"This market will resolve on whether Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Flávio Bolsonaro as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/3RJILPopXUgnEhHb36RkW8/d4a48f3a97861bc229081f73e5177fb4/Fla%C3%8C_vio_Bolsonaro.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.34,0.76],"probability":0.34,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-11T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-30T19:07:30.759537Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-30T19:07:24.449143Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BRPRES2026/brazil-presidential-election-winner-2026","event_title":"Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?","chart_24h":[0.34,0.33,0.34]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4061-33284","event_id":"4061","slug":"GEMI-BRPRES2026-RENAN","question":"Renan Santos","group_item_title":"Renan Santos","description":"This market will resolve on whether Renan Santos wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Renan Santos as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/4Uw7PT7CCY6afBIqfTbgqK/5d11662c41225b5022a03d18e40b2535/Renan_Santos.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.21,0.87],"probability":0.21,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-11T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.01999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-30T20:50:24.935107Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-30T17:04:07.838542Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BRPRES2026/brazil-presidential-election-winner-2026","event_title":"Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4061-33287","event_id":"4061","slug":"GEMI-BRPRES2026-HADDAD","question":"Fernando Haddad","group_item_title":"Fernando Haddad","description":"This market will resolve on whether Fernando Haddad wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Fernando Haddad as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/1G2oumEtoR4ZRhdcdW3qlj/14dfc19134fe5affcfdcd9b8d703706f/Fernando_Haddad.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.09,0.99],"probability":0.09,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-11T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-30T20:09:11.408339Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-30T14:19:33.884886Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BRPRES2026/brazil-presidential-election-winner-2026","event_title":"Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?","chart_24h":[0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4061-33285","event_id":"4061","slug":"GEMI-BRPRES2026-RATINHO","question":"Ratinho Júnior","group_item_title":"Ratinho Júnior","description":"This market will resolve on whether Ratinho Júnior wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Ratinho Júnior as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/1Kzm6zBn1csHNxirIGuWjO/f32ff151d360a01dc917593c5430753b/Ratinho_Ju%C3%8C_nior.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-11T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-30T10:44:14.545460Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BRPRES2026/brazil-presidential-election-winner-2026","event_title":"Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?","chart_24h":[0.02,0.02]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4061-33288","event_id":"4061","slug":"GEMI-BRPRES2026-TARCISIO","question":"Tarcísio de Freitas","group_item_title":"Tarcísio de Freitas","description":"This market will resolve on whether Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Tarcísio de Freitas as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/567agbGPWZvzlJPZVHLkP7/22d86e2aa472b12da881b8527a0a4c3d/Tarci%C3%8C_sio_de_Freitas.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.99],"probability":0.02,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-11T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-30T12:06:40.269041Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-13T19:02:25.948599Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BRPRES2026/brazil-presidential-election-winner-2026","event_title":"Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?","chart_24h":[0.02,0.02]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/gemini/4061","as_of":"2026-05-30T21:29:00.121604Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Gemini): \"Brazil Presidential Election Winner 2026?\" — top market at 45% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}