{"source":"gemini","id":"4065","ticker":"FRA2027","slug":"french-presidential-election-winner-2027","title":"French Presidential Election Winner 2027?","description":"Who will win the next French presidential election?","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/4VjL9XomOU4rDdA36zzPnI/a4dfe5c3ef587ad4c89972928670dccb/France__1_.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:57:51.831000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13270.0,"volume_24hr":12150.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":64.1165771484375,"normalized_volume":49.820247650146484,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["International"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Jordan Bardella","top_outcome_probability":0.25,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T21:03:06.862609Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T21:03:06.862609Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FRA2027/french-presidential-election-winner-2027","chart_24h":[3024.0,9150.0,12150.0],"markets":[{"source":"gemini","id":"4065-33294","event_id":"4065","slug":"GEMI-FRA2027-JORDAN","question":"Jordan Bardella","group_item_title":"Jordan Bardella","description":"This market will resolve on whether Jordan Bardella wins the 2027 French presidential election scheduled to held around April 2027. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Jordan Bardella as the winner of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/6Rfxpt2D510TQTeokBogTj/829191bfa14c98f95598724ab3c56fe9/Jordan_Bardella.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.25,0.8],"probability":0.25,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T12:07:44.984935Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T19:39:40.025279Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FRA2027/french-presidential-election-winner-2027","event_title":"French Presidential Election Winner 2027?","chart_24h":[0.25,0.25]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4065-33297","event_id":"4065","slug":"GEMI-FRA2027-EDOUARD","question":"Édouard Philippe","group_item_title":"Édouard Philippe","description":"This market will resolve on whether Édouard Philippe wins the 2027 French presidential election scheduled to held around April 2027. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Édouard Philippe as the winner of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/4YJfrxB8xRLFXBBQjCEVtv/2cc01dcbddebaab6206e722beaf34b8b/E%C3%8C_douard_Philippe.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.21,0.85],"probability":0.21,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T12:48:46.570271Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T17:57:41.580623Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FRA2027/french-presidential-election-winner-2027","event_title":"French Presidential Election Winner 2027?","chart_24h":[0.21,0.21]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4065-33296","event_id":"4065","slug":"GEMI-FRA2027-JEANLUC","question":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","group_item_title":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","description":"This market will resolve on whether Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the 2027 French presidential election scheduled to held around April 2027. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Jean-Luc Mélenchon as the winner of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/2uzwFtLvyepxG741PjDPy5/45480e0ff1fa16b1411aaae9db824edf/Jean-Luc_Me%C3%8C_lenchon.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.93],"probability":0.12,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T10:45:27.730956Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T21:21:55.270221Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FRA2027/french-presidential-election-winner-2027","event_title":"French Presidential Election Winner 2027?","chart_24h":[0.12,0.12]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4065-33293","event_id":"4065","slug":"GEMI-FRA2027-MARINE","question":"Marine Le Pen","group_item_title":"Marine Le Pen","description":"This market will resolve on whether Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 French presidential election scheduled to held around April 2027. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Marine Le Pen as the winner of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/5NKDQUINodHCheLbK20cXX/e3f7aa881743b1170456dee0f0935a46/Marine_Le_Pen.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.96],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T11:26:39.971107Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T20:40:55.763328Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FRA2027/french-presidential-election-winner-2027","event_title":"French Presidential Election Winner 2027?","chart_24h":[0.08,0.08]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4065-33299","event_id":"4065","slug":"GEMI-FRA2027-GABRIEL","question":"Gabriel Attal","group_item_title":"Gabriel Attal","description":"This market will resolve on whether Gabriel Attal wins the 2027 French presidential election scheduled to held around April 2027. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Gabriel Attal as the winner of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/Rqcaw7vrN8UWDTvAwfSZ0/d8d5784b35432fe5d7c4fdd7e2e9f5e8/Gabriel_Attal.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.97],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T12:48:37.410432Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T12:48:37.410432Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FRA2027/french-presidential-election-winner-2027","event_title":"French Presidential Election Winner 2027?","chart_24h":[0.08,0.08,0.08]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4065-33302","event_id":"4065","slug":"GEMI-FRA2027-DOMINIQUE","question":"Dominique de Villepin","group_item_title":"Dominique de Villepin","description":"This market will resolve on whether Dominique de Villepin wins the 2027 French presidential election scheduled to held around April 2027. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Dominique de Villepin as the winner of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/3v5u00gnXCcEfSPFMpME6C/4a02dc270c3b287590f7252f8aad3ba9/Dominique_de_Villepin.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.07,0.98],"probability":0.07,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T18:17:50.841567Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T17:57:06.661219Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FRA2027/french-presidential-election-winner-2027","event_title":"French Presidential Election Winner 2027?","chart_24h":[0.07,0.07]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4065-33298","event_id":"4065","slug":"GEMI-FRA2027-BRUNO","question":"Bruno Retailleau","group_item_title":"Bruno Retailleau","description":"This market will resolve on whether Bruno Retailleau wins the 2027 French presidential election scheduled to held around April 2027. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Bruno Retailleau as the winner of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/6d3iiPmOHYjMh78wG0zdOg/fc7c74109b37a00c98c837849e58737d/Bruno_Retailleau.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.05,0.99],"probability":0.05,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T17:57:06.661219Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T17:57:06.661219Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FRA2027/french-presidential-election-winner-2027","event_title":"French Presidential Election Winner 2027?","chart_24h":[0.05,0.05,0.05]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4065-33301","event_id":"4065","slug":"GEMI-FRA2027-SARAH","question":"Sarah Knafo","group_item_title":"Sarah Knafo","description":"This market will resolve on whether Sarah Knafo wins the 2027 French presidential election scheduled to held around April 2027. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Sarah Knafo as the winner of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/1SLIplGHC85nZUWWTXTcoO/25d4efb3ce38500589242f7a36c483da/Sarah_Knafo.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.99],"probability":0.04,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T12:48:37.410432Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T12:48:37.410432Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FRA2027/french-presidential-election-winner-2027","event_title":"French Presidential Election Winner 2027?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/gemini/4065","as_of":"2026-06-10T09:20:09.637732Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Gemini): \"French Presidential Election Winner 2027?\" — top market at 25% probability across 8 outcomes","source_url":null}}