{"source":"gemini","id":"4066","ticker":"UKGEN2029","slug":"which-party-will-win-the-next-uk-general-election","title":"Which party will win the next UK general election?","description":"Which party will win the next UK general election? If a party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, the corresponding contract resolves to Yes. If two parties tie in seat count, the party with the higher vote share resolves to Yes. Results verified by credible reporting including The New York Times and the UK House of Commons. This event is mutually exclusive.","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/2wFVqakjsTdeO9hfsyGjja/b635ab8c1f66f01d95b3d3622c205fa8/UK.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T17:51:20.966000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":772.0,"volume_24hr":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.428844451904297,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["International"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Reform Party","top_outcome_probability":0.43,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-05-22T18:59:23.802516Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-22T18:59:23.802516Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/UKGEN2029/which-party-will-win-the-next-uk-general-election","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"gemini","id":"4066-33350","event_id":"4066","slug":"GEMI-UKGEN2029-REFORM","question":"Reform Party","group_item_title":"Reform Party","description":"If the Reform party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons.\nIf two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/7HQSybLX9RQyoVcI5FGsJr/8e141726b72b4fb7b26b808748d58a2f/Reform_Party.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.43,0.64],"probability":0.43,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T18:00:00Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:42:33.987188Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T21:21:55.270221Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/UKGEN2029/which-party-will-win-the-next-uk-general-election","event_title":"Which party will win the next UK general election?","chart_24h":[0.43,0.43]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4066-33351","event_id":"4066","slug":"GEMI-UKGEN2029-LABOUR","question":"Labour Party","group_item_title":"Labour Party","description":"If the Labour party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons.\nIf two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/7sJB2A5ZrnIHhlNLJ9gv4O/968dff3c27e1fc4457575ae143eb6afd/Labour_Party.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.27,0.79],"probability":0.27,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T18:00:00Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:42:33.987188Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T21:21:55.270221Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/UKGEN2029/which-party-will-win-the-next-uk-general-election","event_title":"Which party will win the next UK general election?","chart_24h":[0.27,0.27]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4066-33353","event_id":"4066","slug":"GEMI-UKGEN2029-CONSERVATIVE","question":"Conservative Party","group_item_title":"Conservative Party","description":"If the Conservative party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons.\nIf two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/1GRTINnOYWPoXLLBJMPWY5/3c10d71ac69fb6718e8b52ae93eec597/Conservative_party.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.88],"probability":0.19,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T18:00:00Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:01:55.509489Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T19:19:18.620821Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/UKGEN2029/which-party-will-win-the-next-uk-general-election","event_title":"Which party will win the next UK general election?","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4066-33349","event_id":"4066","slug":"GEMI-UKGEN2029-RESTORE","question":"Restore Britain Party","group_item_title":"Restore Britain Party","description":"If the Restore Britan party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons.\nIf two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/672ipuUUDp35s1k3vbPbS4/780e305e6be304dff209ad2a72a77054/Restore_Britian_Party.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.16,0.92],"probability":0.16,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T18:00:00Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T20:22:09.104081Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-22T07:44:39.535730Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/UKGEN2029/which-party-will-win-the-next-uk-general-election","event_title":"Which party will win the next UK general election?","chart_24h":[0.16,0.16]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4066-33352","event_id":"4066","slug":"GEMI-UKGEN2029-GREEN","question":"Green Party","group_item_title":"Green Party","description":"If the Green party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons.\nIf two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/7bWYxweH9xJXtiA8mnbT1G/d1405eef41f4f29cffec5123122b8e47/Green_party.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.98],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T18:00:00Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T14:23:10.925979Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T21:42:25.649550Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/UKGEN2029/which-party-will-win-the-next-uk-general-election","event_title":"Which party will win the next UK general election?","chart_24h":[0.08,0.08]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4066-133143","event_id":"4066","slug":"GEMI-UKGEN2029-LIBERALDEMOCRAT","question":"Liberal Democratic Party","group_item_title":"Liberal Democratic Party","description":"If the Liberal Democratic party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons.\nIf two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/6RuA3bVLvPUevaXA3bZ0Fe/b3ebf8d0f043f7319a72311b9d3838ae/Liberal_Democrats.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[],"probability":null,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-21T19:45:00Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:26.968364Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/UKGEN2029/which-party-will-win-the-next-uk-general-election","event_title":"Which party will win the next UK general election?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/gemini/4066","as_of":"2026-06-10T16:30:56.842692Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Gemini): \"Which party will win the next UK general election?\" — top market at 43% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}