{"source":"gemini","id":"4398","ticker":"OPTIMUSRELEASE","slug":"tesla-optimus-released-this-year","title":"Tesla Optimus released this year?","description":"Tesla Optimus released this year?","image":"https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/images/Tesla_Optimus_98fb6049-e48f-471f-862f-62cdee5179fc.avif","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-05T16:37:55.836000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":500.0,"volume_24hr":3.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":1.6007860898971558,"normalized_volume":24.1758975982666,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Business"],"tags":["Business"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Yes","top_outcome_probability":0.7,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.6,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:37:05.326004Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:37:05.326004Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/OPTIMUSRELEASE/tesla-optimus-released-this-year","chart_24h":[0.0,1.0,3.0],"markets":[{"source":"gemini","id":"4398-35966","event_id":"4398","slug":"GEMI-OPTIMUSRELEASE-YES","question":"Yes","group_item_title":"Yes","description":"If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/blog).\n\nRead the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fb23f2b4792a847e3bfec991659d45b22?alt=media&token=ecada097-8f14-4780-87c1-2cdbc54d648f&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.7,0.99],"probability":0.7,"spread":0.69,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-06T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.6,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T14:02:57.388537Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T03:47:20.800979Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/OPTIMUSRELEASE/tesla-optimus-released-this-year","event_title":"Tesla Optimus released this year?","chart_24h":[0.1,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/gemini/4398","as_of":"2026-07-25T17:56:10.852919Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Gemini): \"Tesla Optimus released this year?\" — top market at 70% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}