{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXAIGROWTHBET-34JAN26","ticker":"KXAIGROWTHBET-34JAN26","slug":"KXAIGROWTHBET-34JAN26","title":"MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-28T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2034-04-26T12:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":37.16,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.5915706157684326,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":26.16,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Below 15%","top_outcome_probability":0.8,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-05T21:16:28.046301Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-05T21:16:28.046301Z","added_at":"2026-08-28T22:05:48.049893Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaigrowthbet/macaskillmoll-ai-growth-challenge-who-will-win/kxaigrowthbet-34jan26","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXAIGROWTHBET-34JAN26-B15","event_id":"KXAIGROWTHBET-34JAN26","slug":"KXAIGROWTHBET-34JAN26-B15","question":"Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?","group_item_title":"Below 15%","description":"If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is below \n\n15%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis market is based on the public challenge agreed upon in August 2026 between the following sides:\n\nMacAskill side (fast growth): William MacAskill, Samuel Albanie and Tom Cohen\nMoll side (no fast growth): Benjamin Moll and Andrew Ho\n\nGROWTH CONDITION\n\nThe MacAskill side wins if, for any quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2033, U.S. real GDP per capita is at least 15% above the previous peak.\n\nFor each eligible quarter \\(Q\\):\n\nThe applicable quarterly value is U.S. real GDP per capita for \\(Q\\).\nThe previous peak is the highest quarterly U.S. real GDP per capita value reported for any quarter through and including \\(Q-4\\).\nPeak-relative growth is calculated as:\n\n(Quarterly value ÷ previous peak − 1) × 100\n\nThe condition is met when the resulting value is at least 15%. Equivalently, real GDP per capita for the applicable quarter must be at least 1.15 times the previous peak.\n\nThis peak-relative comparison prevents growth caused solely by a rebound from a recession from qualifying.\n\nDATA SOURCE\n\nResolution will use the official U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis measure “Real gross domestic product per capita,” published in NIPA Table 7.1 as series A939RX. The series is quarterly, seasonally adjusted and expressed in inflation-adjusted chained dollars.\n\nThe series is also displayed by FRED.\n\nThe quarterly value and the values used to establish the previous peak will be taken from the same BEA publication or data vintage. Calculations will use the published levels without separately rounding the resulting percentage.\n\nCLOSE CALLS\n\nIf a BEA release shows peak-relative growth from 14.5% through 15.5%, inclusive, that quarter will instead be evaluated using BEA’s third estimate for the quarter.\n\nUsing the third estimate:\n\nA value of at least 15% satisfies the growth condition.\nA value below 15% does not satisfy the growth condition.\n\nOnce a quarter is subject to this close-call procedure, its third estimate controls the determination for that quarter.\n\nDETERMINATION\n\nThe market resolves to MacAskill side as soon as an eligible quarter satisfies the growth condition.\n\nIf no eligible quarter has satisfied the condition when BEA first publishes its estimate for Q4 2033:\n\nThe market resolves to MacAskill side if the Q4 2033 result is above 15.5%.\nThe market resolves to Moll side if the result is below 14.5%.\nIf the result is from 14.5% through 15.5%, determination will be deferred until BEA publishes its third estimate for Q4 2033.\n\nOnce the market has been determined, subsequent revisions will not change the result.\n\nThe calculation does not require determining whether AI caused the reported growth. “Per capita” refers only to the human population. Resolution is based on the criteria above and does not depend on whether the participants concede, make the agreed payments or subsequently amend their private arrangement.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.8,0.19999999999999996],"probability":0.8,"spread":0.10000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-28T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2034-04-26T12:30:00Z","closed_time":"2034-01-26T13:29:00Z","volume":6.16,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":1.2062981128692627,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T14:09:18.893111Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T14:09:18.893111Z","added_at":"2026-08-28T22:05:48.199312Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaigrowthbet/macaskillmoll-ai-growth-challenge-who-will-win/kxaigrowthbet-34jan26","event_title":"MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXAIGROWTHBET-34JAN26-T15","event_id":"KXAIGROWTHBET-34JAN26","slug":"KXAIGROWTHBET-34JAN26-T15","question":"Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?","group_item_title":"At least 15%","description":"If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least \n\n15%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis market is based on the public challenge agreed upon in August 2026 between the following sides:\n\nMacAskill side (fast growth): William MacAskill, Samuel Albanie and Tom Cohen\nMoll side (no fast growth): Benjamin Moll and Andrew Ho\n\nGROWTH CONDITION\n\nThe MacAskill side wins if, for any quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2033, U.S. real GDP per capita is at least 15% above the previous peak.\n\nFor each eligible quarter \\(Q\\):\n\nThe applicable quarterly value is U.S. real GDP per capita for \\(Q\\).\nThe previous peak is the highest quarterly U.S. real GDP per capita value reported for any quarter through and including \\(Q-4\\).\nPeak-relative growth is calculated as:\n\n(Quarterly value ÷ previous peak − 1) × 100\n\nThe condition is met when the resulting value is at least 15%. Equivalently, real GDP per capita for the applicable quarter must be at least 1.15 times the previous peak.\n\nThis peak-relative comparison prevents growth caused solely by a rebound from a recession from qualifying.\n\nDATA SOURCE\n\nResolution will use the official U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis measure “Real gross domestic product per capita,” published in NIPA Table 7.1 as series A939RX. The series is quarterly, seasonally adjusted and expressed in inflation-adjusted chained dollars.\n\nThe series is also displayed by FRED.\n\nThe quarterly value and the values used to establish the previous peak will be taken from the same BEA publication or data vintage. Calculations will use the published levels without separately rounding the resulting percentage.\n\nCLOSE CALLS\n\nIf a BEA release shows peak-relative growth from 14.5% through 15.5%, inclusive, that quarter will instead be evaluated using BEA’s third estimate for the quarter.\n\nUsing the third estimate:\n\nA value of at least 15% satisfies the growth condition.\nA value below 15% does not satisfy the growth condition.\n\nOnce a quarter is subject to this close-call procedure, its third estimate controls the determination for that quarter.\n\nDETERMINATION\n\nThe market resolves to MacAskill side as soon as an eligible quarter satisfies the growth condition.\n\nIf no eligible quarter has satisfied the condition when BEA first publishes its estimate for Q4 2033:\n\nThe market resolves to MacAskill side if the Q4 2033 result is above 15.5%.\nThe market resolves to Moll side if the result is below 14.5%.\nIf the result is from 14.5% through 15.5%, determination will be deferred until BEA publishes its third estimate for Q4 2033.\n\nOnce the market has been determined, subsequent revisions will not change the result.\n\nThe calculation does not require determining whether AI caused the reported growth. “Per capita” refers only to the human population. Resolution is based on the criteria above and does not depend on whether the participants concede, make the agreed payments or subsequently amend their private arrangement.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.3,0.7],"probability":0.3,"spread":0.08999999999999997,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-28T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2034-04-26T12:30:00Z","closed_time":"2034-01-26T13:29:00Z","volume":31.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.7391278743743896,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-19T18:54:14.989020Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-19T18:54:14.989020Z","added_at":"2026-08-28T22:05:48.199312Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaigrowthbet/macaskillmoll-ai-growth-challenge-who-will-win/kxaigrowthbet-34jan26","event_title":"MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXAIGROWTHBET-34JAN26","as_of":"2026-09-20T22:00:29.828583Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?\" — top market at 80% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}