{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","ticker":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","slug":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","title":"Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-27T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15144.79,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.042177200317383,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":8753.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 1, 2028","top_outcome_probability":0.55,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-17T00:26:12.335651Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T00:26:12.335651Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbougainvilleind/will-papua-new-guinea-ratify-bougainville-independence/kxbougainvilleind","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND-28JAN01","event_id":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","slug":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND-28JAN01","question":"Will Papua New Guinea the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028?","group_item_title":"Before Jan 1, 2028","description":"If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.55,0.44999999999999996],"probability":0.55,"spread":0.5599999999999999,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-27T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":9376.24,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.040279388427734,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Papua New Guinea"],"updated_at":"2026-09-25T08:16:30.307591Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-25T08:16:30.307591Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbougainvilleind/will-papua-new-guinea-ratify-bougainville-independence/kxbougainvilleind","event_title":"Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?","chart_24h":[0.55,0.55]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND-27JAN01","event_id":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","slug":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND-27JAN01","question":"Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Before Jan 1, 2027","description":"If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.17,0.83],"probability":0.17,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-27T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":5768.55,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.3480281829834,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Papua New Guinea"],"updated_at":"2026-09-25T08:01:54.504108Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-25T08:01:54.504108Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbougainvilleind/will-papua-new-guinea-ratify-bougainville-independence/kxbougainvilleind","event_title":"Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?","chart_24h":[0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","as_of":"2026-09-25T09:27:16.684100Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?\" — top market at 55% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}