{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","ticker":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","slug":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","title":"Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-27T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13583.0,"volume_24hr":21.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.301617383956909,"normalized_volume":20.23737335205078,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":7233.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 1, 2028","top_outcome_probability":0.72,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":21.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-23T18:35:05.642434Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-23T18:35:05.642434Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbougainvilleind/will-papua-new-guinea-ratify-bougainville-independence/kxbougainvilleind","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND-28JAN01","event_id":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","slug":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND-28JAN01","question":"Will Papua New Guinea the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028?","group_item_title":"Before Jan 1, 2028","description":"If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.72,0.28],"probability":0.72,"spread":0.030000000000000027,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-27T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":7820.0,"volume_24hr":21.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":21.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.858079195022583,"normalized_volume":20.91433334350586,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Papua New Guinea"],"updated_at":"2026-07-24T09:05:09.724326Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T09:05:09.724326Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbougainvilleind/will-papua-new-guinea-ratify-bougainville-independence/kxbougainvilleind","event_title":"Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?","chart_24h":[0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND-27JAN01","event_id":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","slug":"KXBOUGAINVILLEIND-27JAN01","question":"Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Before Jan 1, 2027","description":"If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.24,0.76],"probability":0.24,"spread":0.07000000000000003,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-27T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":5763.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.514598846435547,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Papua New Guinea"],"updated_at":"2026-07-24T03:06:56.789857Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T03:06:56.789857Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbougainvilleind/will-papua-new-guinea-ratify-bougainville-independence/kxbougainvilleind","event_title":"Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?","chart_24h":[0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXBOUGAINVILLEIND","as_of":"2026-07-24T09:40:09.400100Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?\" — top market at 72% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}