{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01","ticker":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01","slug":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01","title":"Who will be the next CDU/CSU parliamentary leader?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T17:48:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2644.49,"volume_24hr":2644.49,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.505857467651367,"normalized_volume":13.877331733703613,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":2623.32,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Thorsten Frei","top_outcome_probability":0.88,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.88,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1000.17,"updated_at":"2026-07-22T15:00:23.273289Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T15:00:23.273289Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T17:48:27.144508Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcducsulead/who-will-be-the-next-cducsu-parliamentary-leader/kxcducsulead-27jan01","chart_24h":[0.0,249.49,251.49,252.49,329.49,369.49,2507.49,2549.49,2644.49],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-TFRE","event_id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01","slug":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-TFRE","question":"Will Thorsten Frei be the next Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Thorsten Frei","description":"If Thorsten Frei formally holds the position of Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.88,0.12],"probability":0.88,"spread":0.030000000000000027,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T17:48:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","volume":1000.17,"volume_24hr":1000.17,"prob_24h_change":0.88,"volume_24h_change":1000.17,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.77066421508789,"normalized_volume":12.422420501708984,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-07-22T16:31:45.884107Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T16:31:45.884107Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T17:48:27.264875Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcducsulead/who-will-be-the-next-cducsu-parliamentary-leader/kxcducsulead-27jan01","event_title":"Who will be the next CDU/CSU parliamentary leader?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.88]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-CLIN","event_id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01","slug":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-CLIN","question":"Will Carsten Linnemann be the next Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Carsten Linnemann","description":"If Carsten Linnemann formally holds the position of Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.05,0.95],"probability":0.05,"spread":0.010000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T17:48:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","volume":245.0,"volume_24hr":245.0,"prob_24h_change":0.05,"volume_24h_change":245.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.553571701049805,"normalized_volume":7.887734889984131,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-07-22T15:02:34.629333Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T15:00:23.379724Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T17:48:27.264875Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcducsulead/who-will-be-the-next-cducsu-parliamentary-leader/kxcducsulead-27jan01","event_title":"Who will be the next CDU/CSU parliamentary leader?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.05,0.05]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-ADOB","event_id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01","slug":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-ADOB","question":"Will Alexander Dobrindt be the next Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Alexander Dobrindt","description":"If Alexander Dobrindt formally holds the position of Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.97],"probability":0.03,"spread":0.009999999999999998,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T17:48:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","volume":244.17,"volume_24hr":244.17,"prob_24h_change":0.03,"volume_24h_change":244.17,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.538163185119629,"normalized_volume":7.878053188323975,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-07-22T15:29:15.649451Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T15:29:15.649451Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T17:48:27.264875Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcducsulead/who-will-be-the-next-cducsu-parliamentary-leader/kxcducsulead-27jan01","event_title":"Who will be the next CDU/CSU parliamentary leader?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-AHOF","event_id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01","slug":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-AHOF","question":"Will Alexander Hoffmann be the next Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Alexander Hoffmann","description":"If Alexander Hoffmann formally holds the position of Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":0.009999999999999998,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T17:48:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","volume":658.0,"volume_24hr":658.0,"prob_24h_change":0.02,"volume_24h_change":658.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.449644088745117,"normalized_volume":10.96406364440918,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-07-22T16:31:45.884107Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T16:31:45.884107Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T17:48:27.264875Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcducsulead/who-will-be-the-next-cducsu-parliamentary-leader/kxcducsulead-27jan01","event_title":"Who will be the next CDU/CSU parliamentary leader?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.17,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-GKRI","event_id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01","slug":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-GKRI","question":"Will Günter Krings be the next Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Günter Krings","description":"If Günter Krings formally holds the position of Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":0.009999999999999998,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T17:48:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","volume":251.0,"volume_24hr":251.0,"prob_24h_change":0.02,"volume_24h_change":251.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.66370964050293,"normalized_volume":7.956936836242676,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-07-22T15:02:34.629333Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T15:00:23.379724Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T17:48:27.264875Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcducsulead/who-will-be-the-next-cducsu-parliamentary-leader/kxcducsulead-27jan01","event_title":"Who will be the next CDU/CSU parliamentary leader?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-NWAR","event_id":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01","slug":"KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01-NWAR","question":"Will Nina Warken be the next Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Nina Warken","description":"If Nina Warken formally holds the position of Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":0.009999999999999998,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T17:48:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","volume":246.15,"volume_24hr":246.15,"prob_24h_change":0.02,"volume_24h_change":246.15,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.574850082397461,"normalized_volume":7.90110445022583,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-07-22T15:02:34.629333Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T15:00:23.379724Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T17:48:27.264875Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcducsulead/who-will-be-the-next-cducsu-parliamentary-leader/kxcducsulead-27jan01","event_title":"Who will be the next CDU/CSU parliamentary leader?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.02,0.02,0.02]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXCDUCSULEAD-27JAN01","as_of":"2026-07-22T16:38:04.670866Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Who will be the next CDU/CSU parliamentary leader?\" — top market at 88% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}