{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV","as_of":"2026-11-11T09:01:41.473861Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"When will chip export restrictions become U.S. law?\" — 3 markets; highest \"Before Jan 1, 2028\" at 68% as of 2026-11-11 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV","source_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchipexportlaw/when-will-chip-export-restrictions-become-us-law/kxchipexportlaw-26nov"},"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV","ticker":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV","slug":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV","title":"When will chip export restrictions become U.S. law?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-07T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3222.58,"volume_24hr":3052.29,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.000831604003906,"normalized_volume":17.221153259277344,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":3222.58,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 1, 2028","top_outcome_probability":0.68,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.1100000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-47.28999999999999,"updated_at":"2026-11-11T06:55:28.140025Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-11T06:55:28.140025Z","added_at":"2026-11-09T21:08:11.945618Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchipexportlaw/when-will-chip-export-restrictions-become-us-law/kxchipexportlaw-26nov","chart_24h":[369.28999999999996,387.57,217.28,295.28,335.28,340.28,3052.29],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":3,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV-28JAN01","event_id":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV","slug":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV-28JAN01","question":"Will chip export restrictions become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?","group_item_title":"Before Jan 1, 2028","description":"If federal legislation restricting exports of advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nA qualifying federal law must impose a binding restriction or requirement on exports of advanced AI chips or of semiconductor manufacturing equipment or components. Export bans, license requirements or licensing standards, location-verification or other end-use security mechanisms on exported chips, mandatory congressional review of chip export licenses, and directives requiring the Bureau of Industry and Security to impose such controls, including by writing existing controls into statute, qualify. The restriction may be part of a broader law, such as the National Defense Authorization Act, and a later effective date does not delay qualification.\n\nStudies, reports, briefings, funding, sense-of-Congress provisions, and controls only on other goods, on investment, or on remote or cloud access to chips do not qualify. General sanctions, embargoes, or entity listings that restrict all exports to a country or company, without a restriction specific to chips or chipmaking equipment, do not qualify.\n\nAn example of this is the Chip Security Act, which would require location verification on exported advanced AI chips.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.68,0.31999999999999995],"probability":0.68,"spread":0.039999999999999925,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-07T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","result":null,"volume":293.29,"volume_24hr":123.0,"prob_24h_change":0.1100000000000001,"volume_24h_change":-47.28999999999999,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.613956451416016,"normalized_volume":9.066115379333496,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-11T06:55:28.324788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-11T06:55:28.324788Z","added_at":"2026-11-09T21:08:12.182620Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchipexportlaw/when-will-chip-export-restrictions-become-us-law/kxchipexportlaw-26nov","event_title":"When will chip export restrictions become U.S. law?","chart_24h":[0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.68]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV-27JAN01","event_id":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV","slug":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV-27JAN01","question":"Will chip export restrictions become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Before Jan 1, 2027","description":"If federal legislation restricting exports of advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nA qualifying federal law must impose a binding restriction or requirement on exports of advanced AI chips or of semiconductor manufacturing equipment or components. Export bans, license requirements or licensing standards, location-verification or other end-use security mechanisms on exported chips, mandatory congressional review of chip export licenses, and directives requiring the Bureau of Industry and Security to impose such controls, including by writing existing controls into statute, qualify. The restriction may be part of a broader law, such as the National Defense Authorization Act, and a later effective date does not delay qualification.\n\nStudies, reports, briefings, funding, sense-of-Congress provisions, and controls only on other goods, on investment, or on remote or cloud access to chips do not qualify. General sanctions, embargoes, or entity listings that restrict all exports to a country or company, without a restriction specific to chips or chipmaking equipment, do not qualify.\n\nAn example of this is the Chip Security Act, which would require location verification on exported advanced AI chips.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.27,0.73],"probability":0.27,"spread":0.040000000000000036,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-07T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","result":null,"volume":2929.29,"volume_24hr":2929.29,"prob_24h_change":0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":2730.29,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.625146865844727,"normalized_volume":17.879003524780273,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-11T07:57:12.589368Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-11T07:57:12.589368Z","added_at":"2026-11-09T21:08:12.182620Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchipexportlaw/when-will-chip-export-restrictions-become-us-law/kxchipexportlaw-26nov","event_title":"When will chip export restrictions become U.S. law?","chart_24h":[0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV-27JUL01","event_id":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV","slug":"KXCHIPEXPORTLAW-26NOV-27JUL01","question":"Will chip export restrictions become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Before Jul 1, 2027","description":"If federal legislation restricting exports of advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nA qualifying federal law must impose a binding restriction or requirement on exports of advanced AI chips or of semiconductor manufacturing equipment or components. Export bans, license requirements or licensing standards, location-verification or other end-use security mechanisms on exported chips, mandatory congressional review of chip export licenses, and directives requiring the Bureau of Industry and Security to impose such controls, including by writing existing controls into statute, qualify. The restriction may be part of a broader law, such as the National Defense Authorization Act, and a later effective date does not delay qualification.\n\nStudies, reports, briefings, funding, sense-of-Congress provisions, and controls only on other goods, on investment, or on remote or cloud access to chips do not qualify. General sanctions, embargoes, or entity listings that restrict all exports to a country or company, without a restriction specific to chips or chipmaking equipment, do not qualify.\n\nAn example of this is the Chip Security Act, which would require location verification on exported advanced AI chips.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.03999999999999998,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-07T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-11T06:55:28.324788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-11T06:55:28.324788Z","added_at":"2026-11-09T21:08:12.182620Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchipexportlaw/when-will-chip-export-restrictions-become-us-law/kxchipexportlaw-26nov","event_title":"When will chip export restrictions become U.S. law?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}]}