{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26","ticker":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26","slug":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26","title":"Who will drop out of their primary?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-06T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-08-25T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19641.23,"volume_24hr":2596.34,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.262475967407227,"normalized_volume":26.445798873901367,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":14235.439999999999,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"James Fishback","top_outcome_probability":0.31,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03999999999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2595.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-11T05:22:50.967686Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-11T05:22:50.967686Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdropoutprimary/who-will-drop-out-of-their-primary/kxdropoutprimary-26","chart_24h":[0.0,300.0,1514.33,2296.34,2596.34],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-JFIS","event_id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26","slug":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-JFIS","question":"Will James Fishback drop out of the Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026?","group_item_title":"James Fishback","description":"If James Fishback drops out of the 2026 Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nJames Fishback announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nJames Fishback files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nJames Fishback publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nJames Fishback endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nJames Fishback is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless James Fishback explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.31,0.69],"probability":0.31,"spread":0.019999999999999962,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-06T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-08-25T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-18T03:59:00Z","volume":14745.23,"volume_24hr":2596.34,"prob_24h_change":0.03999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":2595.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.659870147705078,"normalized_volume":25.84088706970215,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-11T07:17:39.709228Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-11T07:17:39.709228Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdropoutprimary/who-will-drop-out-of-their-primary/kxdropoutprimary-26","event_title":"Who will drop out of their primary?","chart_24h":[0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.31]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-ESWA","event_id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26","slug":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-ESWA","question":"Will Eric Swalwell drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026?","group_item_title":"Eric Swalwell","description":"If Eric Swalwell drops out of the 2026 California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\n\"Dropped out\" means the candidate announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign, files official withdrawal paperwork, publicly states they are no longer seeking the office, or endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running. Suspending a campaign is treated as dropping out unless the candidate explicitly states they remain in the race. Death or incapacitation resolves to No, not Yes. Losing a primary or election, failing to qualify for debates or ballots, or being eliminated through the normal election process does not constitute dropping out. Once someone drops out, the market resolves Yes even if they later re-enter the race.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.999,0.0010000000000000009],"probability":0.999,"spread":0.0020000000000000018,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-06T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-06-09T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-13T01:03:31Z","volume":32824.3,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.32900047302246,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:28.665667Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:28.665667Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdropoutprimary/who-will-drop-out-of-their-primary/kxdropoutprimary-26","event_title":"Who will drop out of their primary?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-JMIL","event_id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26","slug":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-JMIL","question":"Will Janet Mills drop out of the Maine Senate primary before Jun 9, 2026?","group_item_title":"Janet Mills","description":"If Janet Mills drops out of the 2026 Maine Senate primary before Jun 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\n\"Dropped out\" means the candidate announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign, files official withdrawal paperwork, publicly states they are no longer seeking the office, or endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running. Suspending a campaign is treated as dropping out unless the candidate explicitly states they remain in the race. Death or incapacitation resolves to No, not Yes. Losing a primary or election, failing to qualify for debates or ballots, or being eliminated through the normal election process does not constitute dropping out. Once someone drops out, the market resolves Yes even if they later re-enter the race.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.99,0.010000000000000009],"probability":0.99,"spread":0.009000000000000008,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-06T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-06-16T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-30T14:15:47Z","volume":9881.75,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.73105812072754,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:28.665667Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:28.665667Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdropoutprimary/who-will-drop-out-of-their-primary/kxdropoutprimary-26","event_title":"Who will drop out of their primary?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-KPAX","event_id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26","slug":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-KPAX","question":"Will Ken Paxton drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026?","group_item_title":"Ken Paxton","description":"If Ken Paxton drops out of the 2026 Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\n\"Dropped out\" means the candidate announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign, files official withdrawal paperwork, publicly states they are no longer seeking the office, or endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running. Suspending a campaign is treated as dropping out unless the candidate explicitly states they remain in the race. Death or incapacitation resolves to No, not Yes. Losing a primary or election, failing to qualify for debates or ballots, or being eliminated through the normal election process does not constitute dropping out. Once someone drops out, the market resolves Yes even if they later re-enter the race.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.019,0.981],"probability":0.019,"spread":1.0,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-06T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-05-26T03:59:00Z","volume":1698.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":15.515548706054688,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T03:59:38.188327Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T02:13:23.770222Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdropoutprimary/who-will-drop-out-of-their-primary/kxdropoutprimary-26","event_title":"Who will drop out of their primary?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-CBIA","event_id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26","slug":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-CBIA","question":"Will Chad Bianco drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026?","group_item_title":"Chad Bianco","description":"If Chad Bianco drops out of the 2026 California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\n\"Dropped out\" means the candidate announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign, files official withdrawal paperwork, publicly states they are no longer seeking the office, or endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running. Suspending a campaign is treated as dropping out unless the candidate explicitly states they remain in the race. Death or incapacitation resolves to No, not Yes. Losing a primary or election, failing to qualify for debates or ballots, or being eliminated through the normal election process does not constitute dropping out. Once someone drops out, the market resolves Yes even if they later re-enter the race.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":1.0,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-06T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-06-09T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-02T03:59:00Z","volume":1154.54,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.94900131225586,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-03T04:07:16.635087Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T04:06:31.725860Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdropoutprimary/who-will-drop-out-of-their-primary/kxdropoutprimary-26","event_title":"Who will drop out of their primary?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-JCOR","event_id":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26","slug":"KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-JCOR","question":"Will John Cornyn drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026?","group_item_title":"John Cornyn","description":"If John Cornyn drops out of the 2026 Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\n\"Dropped out\" means the candidate announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign, files official withdrawal paperwork, publicly states they are no longer seeking the office, or endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running. Suspending a campaign is treated as dropping out unless the candidate explicitly states they remain in the race. Death or incapacitation resolves to No, not Yes. Losing a primary or election, failing to qualify for debates or ballots, or being eliminated through the normal election process does not constitute dropping out. Once someone drops out, the market resolves Yes even if they later re-enter the race.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":1.0,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-06T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-05-26T03:59:00Z","volume":2043.46,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.29738426208496,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T03:59:38.188327Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T02:13:23.770222Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdropoutprimary/who-will-drop-out-of-their-primary/kxdropoutprimary-26","event_title":"Who will drop out of their primary?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26","as_of":"2026-07-11T08:02:56.629290Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Who will drop out of their primary?\" — top market at 31% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}