{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXEUMFFDEAL-27JUL01","ticker":"KXEUMFFDEAL-27JUL01","slug":"KXEUMFFDEAL-27JUL01","title":"When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-05T02:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1973.52,"volume_24hr":1973.52,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.820480346679688,"normalized_volume":15.6725435256958,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":1973.52,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 1, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.34,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.34,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1973.52,"updated_at":"2026-09-05T15:26:10.824336Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-05T15:26:10.824336Z","added_at":"2026-09-05T02:41:24.297982Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeumffdeal/when-will-the-eu-reach-a-long-term-budget-deal/kxeumffdeal-27jul01","chart_24h":[0.0,1973.52],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXEUMFFDEAL-27JUL01-27JAN01","event_id":"KXEUMFFDEAL-27JUL01","slug":"KXEUMFFDEAL-27JUL01-27JAN01","question":"EU long-term budget deal before 2027?","group_item_title":"Before Jan 1, 2027","description":"If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe European Council must officially declare that all 27 EU member states have reached political agreement on the overall 2028-2034 MFF terms. A commitment or timetable to reach agreement later, a negotiating box, a partial or sectoral mandate, or a package leaving MFF-level terms unresolved does not qualify. European Parliament consent, formal legislative adoption, and entry into force are not required.\n\nAn agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:\n\nFormal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority\nOfficial statements by authorized ministers\nOfficial press releases\nFormal declarations during government proceedings\nOfficial statements to international bodies\n\nPhased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where all 27 EU member states are signatories also qualify.\n\nThe following do NOT qualify:\n\nPreliminary discussions\nConditional agreements contingent on circumstances\nOpposition party statements\nLeaked documents\nThink-tank recommendations\nGeneral aspirations without specific commitment\nDraft legislation without approval\nRegional actions (unless specified)\nRetraction of previously announced commitments","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.34,0.6599999999999999],"probability":0.34,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-05T02:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":1973.52,"volume_24hr":1973.52,"prob_24h_change":0.34,"volume_24h_change":1973.52,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.50446891784668,"normalized_volume":17.92434310913086,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-05T16:23:17.530477Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-05T16:23:17.530477Z","added_at":"2026-09-05T02:41:24.412173Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeumffdeal/when-will-the-eu-reach-a-long-term-budget-deal/kxeumffdeal-27jul01","event_title":"When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.34,0.34,0.34]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXEUMFFDEAL-27JUL01-27JUL01","event_id":"KXEUMFFDEAL-27JUL01","slug":"KXEUMFFDEAL-27JUL01-27JUL01","question":"EU long-term budget deal before July 2027?","group_item_title":"Before Jul 1, 2027","description":"If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe European Council must officially declare that all 27 EU member states have reached political agreement on the overall 2028-2034 MFF terms. A commitment or timetable to reach agreement later, a negotiating box, a partial or sectoral mandate, or a package leaving MFF-level terms unresolved does not qualify. European Parliament consent, formal legislative adoption, and entry into force are not required.\n\nAn agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:\n\nFormal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority\nOfficial statements by authorized ministers\nOfficial press releases\nFormal declarations during government proceedings\nOfficial statements to international bodies\n\nPhased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where all 27 EU member states are signatories also qualify.\n\nThe following do NOT qualify:\n\nPreliminary discussions\nConditional agreements contingent on circumstances\nOpposition party statements\nLeaked documents\nThink-tank recommendations\nGeneral aspirations without specific commitment\nDraft legislation without approval\nRegional actions (unless specified)\nRetraction of previously announced commitments","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.08999999999999997,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-05T02:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-05T15:26:10.882718Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-05T15:26:10.882718Z","added_at":"2026-09-05T02:41:24.412173Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeumffdeal/when-will-the-eu-reach-a-long-term-budget-deal/kxeumffdeal-27jul01","event_title":"When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXEUMFFDEAL-27JUL01","as_of":"2026-09-05T18:26:19.434189Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?\" — top market at 34% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}