{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXGPT-ASTRA","ticker":"KXGPT-ASTRA","slug":"KXGPT-ASTRA","title":"When will OpenAI release Astra?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-04T20:16:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2002.04,"volume_24hr":2002.04,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.700580596923828,"normalized_volume":15.603423118591309,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":1472.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Oct 16, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.83,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.83,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":14.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-05T03:26:39.367457Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T03:26:39.367457Z","added_at":"2026-08-04T20:24:28.906473Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/when-will-openai-release-astra/kxgpt-astra","chart_24h":[0.0,700.0,1458.0,1558.0,1558.0,2002.04],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXGPT-ASTRA-26OCT16","event_id":"KXGPT-ASTRA","slug":"KXGPT-ASTRA-26OCT16","question":"Will OpenAI release Astra before Oct 16, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before Oct 16, 2026","description":"If OpenAI releases Astra before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\nOn August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed \"Astra,\" an internal model described by OpenAI as its next major frontier system, citing results including the resolution of ten previously open mathematics problems - https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/ \n\nQualifying Release: The Payout Criterion is satisfied if OpenAI releases a model that either (a) is publicly named \"Astra\" (including numbered, lettered, or suffixed variants such as \"Astra 1,\" \"Astra 6,\" or \"GPT-6 Astra\"), or (b) is confirmed by OpenAI, or by a consensus of credible reporting, to share the same underlying model — including the same base architecture, weights, or training run — as the model referenced in OpenAI's August 1, 2026 disclosure, regardless of the commercial name, safety configuration, or access tier under which it is ultimately released. A separately-branded release that is derived from or built on the same underlying model as the disclosed Astra model satisfies this clause even if OpenAI markets it as a distinct product (e.g., a safety-restricted variant or a differently-priced tier), provided the shared underlying model is confirmed by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.83,0.17000000000000004],"probability":0.83,"spread":0.07999999999999996,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-04T20:16:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-23T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-10-16T03:59:00Z","volume":14.0,"volume_24hr":14.0,"prob_24h_change":0.83,"volume_24h_change":14.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":2.7479629516601562,"normalized_volume":2.282931089401245,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T03:30:28.755081Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T03:26:39.732874Z","added_at":"2026-08-04T20:24:29.229815Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/when-will-openai-release-astra/kxgpt-astra","event_title":"When will OpenAI release Astra?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.83,0.83]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXGPT-ASTRA-26OCT01","event_id":"KXGPT-ASTRA","slug":"KXGPT-ASTRA-26OCT01","question":"Will OpenAI release Astra before Oct 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before Oct 1, 2026","description":"If OpenAI releases Astra before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\nOn August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed \"Astra,\" an internal model described by OpenAI as its next major frontier system, citing results including the resolution of ten previously open mathematics problems - https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/ \n\nQualifying Release: The Payout Criterion is satisfied if OpenAI releases a model that either (a) is publicly named \"Astra\" (including numbered, lettered, or suffixed variants such as \"Astra 1,\" \"Astra 6,\" or \"GPT-6 Astra\"), or (b) is confirmed by OpenAI, or by a consensus of credible reporting, to share the same underlying model — including the same base architecture, weights, or training run — as the model referenced in OpenAI's August 1, 2026 disclosure, regardless of the commercial name, safety configuration, or access tier under which it is ultimately released. A separately-branded release that is derived from or built on the same underlying model as the disclosed Astra model satisfies this clause even if OpenAI markets it as a distinct product (e.g., a safety-restricted variant or a differently-priced tier), provided the shared underlying model is confirmed by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.81,0.18999999999999995],"probability":0.81,"spread":0.07999999999999996,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-04T20:16:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","volume":600.0,"volume_24hr":600.0,"prob_24h_change":0.81,"volume_24h_change":600.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.341459274291992,"normalized_volume":12.745257377624512,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T04:14:43.588345Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T04:14:43.588345Z","added_at":"2026-08-04T20:24:29.229815Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/when-will-openai-release-astra/kxgpt-astra","event_title":"When will OpenAI release Astra?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.81]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXGPT-ASTRA-26SEP18","event_id":"KXGPT-ASTRA","slug":"KXGPT-ASTRA-26SEP18","question":"Will OpenAI release Astra before Sep 18, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before Sep 18, 2026","description":"If OpenAI releases Astra before Sep 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\nOn August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed \"Astra,\" an internal model described by OpenAI as its next major frontier system, citing results including the resolution of ten previously open mathematics problems - https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/ \n\nQualifying Release: The Payout Criterion is satisfied if OpenAI releases a model that either (a) is publicly named \"Astra\" (including numbered, lettered, or suffixed variants such as \"Astra 1,\" \"Astra 6,\" or \"GPT-6 Astra\"), or (b) is confirmed by OpenAI, or by a consensus of credible reporting, to share the same underlying model — including the same base architecture, weights, or training run — as the model referenced in OpenAI's August 1, 2026 disclosure, regardless of the commercial name, safety configuration, or access tier under which it is ultimately released. A separately-branded release that is derived from or built on the same underlying model as the disclosed Astra model satisfies this clause even if OpenAI markets it as a distinct product (e.g., a safety-restricted variant or a differently-priced tier), provided the shared underlying model is confirmed by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.56,0.43999999999999995],"probability":0.56,"spread":0.05999999999999994,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-04T20:16:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-25T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-18T03:59:00Z","volume":1388.04,"volume_24hr":1388.04,"prob_24h_change":0.56,"volume_24h_change":1388.04,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.621795654296875,"normalized_volume":16.301240921020508,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T03:30:28.755081Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T03:26:39.732874Z","added_at":"2026-08-04T20:24:29.229815Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/when-will-openai-release-astra/kxgpt-astra","event_title":"When will OpenAI release Astra?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.56]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXGPT-ASTRA-26AUG21","event_id":"KXGPT-ASTRA","slug":"KXGPT-ASTRA-26AUG21","question":"Will OpenAI release Astra before Aug 21, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before Aug 21, 2026","description":"If OpenAI releases Astra before Aug 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\nOn August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed \"Astra,\" an internal model described by OpenAI as its next major frontier system, citing results including the resolution of ten previously open mathematics problems - https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/ \n\nQualifying Release: The Payout Criterion is satisfied if OpenAI releases a model that either (a) is publicly named \"Astra\" (including numbered, lettered, or suffixed variants such as \"Astra 1,\" \"Astra 6,\" or \"GPT-6 Astra\"), or (b) is confirmed by OpenAI, or by a consensus of credible reporting, to share the same underlying model — including the same base architecture, weights, or training run — as the model referenced in OpenAI's August 1, 2026 disclosure, regardless of the commercial name, safety configuration, or access tier under which it is ultimately released. 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