{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26","as_of":"2026-10-10T03:33:06.013085Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"120th Congress: Who will run for House Republican leader?\" — 5 markets; highest \"Mike Johnson\" at 65% as of 2026-10-10 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26","source_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousegopleadrun/120th-congress-who-will-run-for-house-republican-leader/kxhousegopleadrun-26"},"source":"kalshi","id":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26","ticker":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26","slug":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26","title":"120th Congress: Who will run for House Republican leader?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-09T02:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4960.0,"volume_24hr":4960.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.569976806640625,"normalized_volume":19.493417739868164,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":4860.0,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Mike Johnson","top_outcome_probability":0.65,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.65,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1560.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-10T01:55:45.999616Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-10T01:55:45.999616Z","added_at":"2026-10-09T02:02:16.286254Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousegopleadrun/120th-congress-who-will-run-for-house-republican-leader/kxhousegopleadrun-26","chart_24h":[4860.0,4960.0],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":5,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26-27JAN01-MJOH","event_id":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26","slug":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26-27JAN01-MJOH","question":"Will Mike Johnson announce a run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026?","group_item_title":"Mike Johnson","description":"If Mike Johnson has announced that they will run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.\n\nHouse Republican leader means the top post the House Republican Conference elects for the 120th Congress after the 2026 midterm elections: its nominee for Speaker of the House if Republicans win the House majority, or Minority Leader if they do not. An announcement made before the House majority is known, including a conditional one, counts only if it is for the post that becomes the top post. Running only for a lower post, such as Majority Leader or whip, does not count. Standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance, including unopposed, counts as announcing a run. An announcement made before Issuance does NOT resolve Yes. For a person who announced before Issuance, repeating that announcement does not count; only standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance resolves Yes. A person who announces and later withdraws still resolves YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.65,0.35],"probability":0.65,"spread":0.09000000000000008,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-09T02:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":1560.0,"volume_24hr":1560.0,"prob_24h_change":0.65,"volume_24h_change":1560.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.633708953857422,"normalized_volume":16.83131980895996,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-10T02:55:53.853492Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-10T02:55:53.853492Z","added_at":"2026-10-09T02:02:16.691593Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousegopleadrun/120th-congress-who-will-run-for-house-republican-leader/kxhousegopleadrun-26","event_title":"120th Congress: Who will run for House Republican leader?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.65,0.65]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26-27JAN01-JJOR","event_id":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26","slug":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26-27JAN01-JJOR","question":"Will Jim Jordan announce a run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026?","group_item_title":"Jim Jordan","description":"If Jim Jordan has announced that they will run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.\n\nHouse Republican leader means the top post the House Republican Conference elects for the 120th Congress after the 2026 midterm elections: its nominee for Speaker of the House if Republicans win the House majority, or Minority Leader if they do not. An announcement made before the House majority is known, including a conditional one, counts only if it is for the post that becomes the top post. Running only for a lower post, such as Majority Leader or whip, does not count. Standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance, including unopposed, counts as announcing a run. An announcement made before Issuance does NOT resolve Yes. For a person who announced before Issuance, repeating that announcement does not count; only standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance resolves Yes. A person who announces and later withdraws still resolves YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.42,0.5800000000000001],"probability":0.42,"spread":0.08000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-09T02:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":2000.0,"volume_24hr":2000.0,"prob_24h_change":0.42,"volume_24h_change":2000.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.050880432128906,"normalized_volume":17.987335205078125,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-10T03:10:26.334752Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-10T03:10:26.334752Z","added_at":"2026-10-09T02:02:16.691593Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousegopleadrun/120th-congress-who-will-run-for-house-republican-leader/kxhousegopleadrun-26","event_title":"120th Congress: Who will run for House Republican leader?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.42]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26-27JAN01-SSCA","event_id":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26","slug":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26-27JAN01-SSCA","question":"Will Steve Scalise announce a run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026?","group_item_title":"Steve Scalise","description":"If Steve Scalise has announced that they will run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.\n\nHouse Republican leader means the top post the House Republican Conference elects for the 120th Congress after the 2026 midterm elections: its nominee for Speaker of the House if Republicans win the House majority, or Minority Leader if they do not. An announcement made before the House majority is known, including a conditional one, counts only if it is for the post that becomes the top post. Running only for a lower post, such as Majority Leader or whip, does not count. Standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance, including unopposed, counts as announcing a run. An announcement made before Issuance does NOT resolve Yes. For a person who announced before Issuance, repeating that announcement does not count; only standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance resolves Yes. A person who announces and later withdraws still resolves YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.25,0.75],"probability":0.25,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-09T02:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":1400.0,"volume_24hr":1400.0,"prob_24h_change":0.25,"volume_24h_change":1400.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.031261444091797,"normalized_volume":16.33989143371582,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-10T02:55:53.853492Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-10T02:55:53.853492Z","added_at":"2026-10-09T02:02:16.691593Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousegopleadrun/120th-congress-who-will-run-for-house-republican-leader/kxhousegopleadrun-26","event_title":"120th Congress: Who will run for House Republican leader?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.25,0.25,0.25]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26-27JAN01-APFL","event_id":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26","slug":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26-27JAN01-APFL","question":"Will August Pfluger announce a run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026?","group_item_title":"August Pfluger","description":"If August Pfluger has announced that they will run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.\n\nHouse Republican leader means the top post the House Republican Conference elects for the 120th Congress after the 2026 midterm elections: its nominee for Speaker of the House if Republicans win the House majority, or Minority Leader if they do not. An announcement made before the House majority is known, including a conditional one, counts only if it is for the post that becomes the top post. Running only for a lower post, such as Majority Leader or whip, does not count. Standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance, including unopposed, counts as announcing a run. An announcement made before Issuance does NOT resolve Yes. For a person who announced before Issuance, repeating that announcement does not count; only standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance resolves Yes. A person who announces and later withdraws still resolves YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.010000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-09T02:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-09T06:37:54.292946Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-09T06:37:54.292946Z","added_at":"2026-10-09T02:02:16.691593Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousegopleadrun/120th-congress-who-will-run-for-house-republican-leader/kxhousegopleadrun-26","event_title":"120th Congress: Who will run for House Republican leader?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26-27JAN01-TEMM","event_id":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26","slug":"KXHOUSEGOPLEADRUN-26-27JAN01-TEMM","question":"Will Tom Emmer announce a run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026?","group_item_title":"Tom Emmer","description":"If Tom Emmer has announced that they will run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.\n\nHouse Republican leader means the top post the House Republican Conference elects for the 120th Congress after the 2026 midterm elections: its nominee for Speaker of the House if Republicans win the House majority, or Minority Leader if they do not. An announcement made before the House majority is known, including a conditional one, counts only if it is for the post that becomes the top post. Running only for a lower post, such as Majority Leader or whip, does not count. Standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance, including unopposed, counts as announcing a run. An announcement made before Issuance does NOT resolve Yes. For a person who announced before Issuance, repeating that announcement does not count; only standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance resolves Yes. A person who announces and later withdraws still resolves YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.009999999999999995,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-09T02:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-10T00:43:41.727822Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-10T00:43:41.727822Z","added_at":"2026-10-09T02:02:16.691593Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousegopleadrun/120th-congress-who-will-run-for-house-republican-leader/kxhousegopleadrun-26","event_title":"120th Congress: Who will run for House Republican leader?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}]}