{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXJUDGMENT-CARROLL28","ticker":"KXJUDGMENT-CARROLL28","slug":"KXJUDGMENT-CARROLL28","title":"Will SCOTUS overturn Trump's $83.3 million Carroll judgment?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-01T21:30:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":250.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.312346458435059,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":224.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2028","top_outcome_probability":0.13,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-158.19,"updated_at":"2026-09-03T23:03:03.758410Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T23:03:03.758410Z","added_at":"2026-09-01T21:41:30.258834Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjudgment/will-scotus-overturn-trumps-833-million-carroll-judgment/kxjudgment-carroll28","chart_24h":[158.19,100.0,0.0],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXJUDGMENT-CARROLL28","event_id":"KXJUDGMENT-CARROLL28","slug":"KXJUDGMENT-CARROLL28","question":"Will SCOTUS overturn Trump's $83.3 million Carroll judgment?","group_item_title":"Before 2028","description":"If the U.S. Supreme Court overturns in full the February 8, 2024 judgment awarding E. Jean Carroll $83.3 million in compensatory and punitive damages in Donald J. Trump v. E. Jean Carroll, No. 26-141, or United States v. E. Jean Carroll, et al., No. 26-142, including any consolidation of those petitions before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nA ruling qualifies only if it leaves none of the February 8, 2024 judgment enforceable against Donald J. Trump.\n\nThe ruling must:\nBe issued by the U.S. Supreme Court in Donald J. Trump v. E. Jean Carroll, No. 26-141, or United States v. E. Jean Carroll, et al., No. 26-142, including any consolidation of those petitions\nAddress the matter described by the specified judgment\nBe issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision\n\nThe following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:\nA grant or denial of certiorari, stay, briefing order, scheduling order, or other order that does not itself overturn the full judgment\nA ruling on presidential immunity, Westfall Act substitution, or another procedural issue that does not require the full judgment to be vacated or set aside\nA partial reversal, damages reduction, modification, GVR, or remand that does not itself require the full judgment to be vacated or set aside\nA ruling in Carroll II, No. 25-573, or another separate Carroll proceeding\nOral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order\nTentative rulings that are not made final\nDraft opinions that leak but are not officially issued\nSettlements or voluntary dismissals\nAdministrative or scheduling orders\n\nFor clarity:\nA ruling in either No. 26-141 or No. 26-142 counts if it matches the specified judgment\nPer curiam opinions and summary orders count if they match the specified judgment\nIf multiple justices issue separate opinions, the majority or plurality opinion controls","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-01T21:30:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":250.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-158.19,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.504191398620605,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T23:03:03.917035Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T23:03:03.917035Z","added_at":"2026-09-01T21:41:30.344505Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjudgment/will-scotus-overturn-trumps-833-million-carroll-judgment/kxjudgment-carroll28","event_title":"Will SCOTUS overturn Trump's $83.3 million Carroll judgment?","chart_24h":[0.13,0.13,0.13]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXJUDGMENT-CARROLL28","as_of":"2026-09-04T16:55:14.090658Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will SCOTUS overturn Trump's $83.3 million Carroll judgment?\" — top market at 13% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}