{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXJUDGMENT-METANM32","as_of":"2026-11-10T20:09:55.209936Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will Meta's $25 billion New Mexico penalty be cut on appeal?\" — 71% as of 2026-11-04 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXJUDGMENT-METANM32","source_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjudgment/will-metas-25-billion-new-mexico-penalty-be-cut-on-appeal/kxjudgment-metanm32"},"source":"kalshi","id":"KXJUDGMENT-METANM32","ticker":"KXJUDGMENT-METANM32","slug":"KXJUDGMENT-METANM32","title":"Will Meta's $25 billion New Mexico penalty be cut on appeal?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-27T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2032-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":77.54,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.024806499481201,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":77.54,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2032","top_outcome_probability":0.71,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-11-04T07:52:23.111529Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T07:52:23.111529Z","added_at":"2026-10-27T21:07:26.179224Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjudgment/will-metas-25-billion-new-mexico-penalty-be-cut-on-appeal/kxjudgment-metanm32","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXJUDGMENT-METANM32","event_id":"KXJUDGMENT-METANM32","slug":"KXJUDGMENT-METANM32","question":"Will Meta's $25 billion New Mexico penalty be cut on appeal?","group_item_title":"Before 2032","description":"If the New Mexico Court of Appeals, the New Mexico Supreme Court or the U.S. Supreme Court reduces, vacates or reverses, in whole or in part, the roughly $25 billion civil penalty imposed on Meta in the district court's October 21, 2026 order, including as later amended or reentered by the district court in State of New Mexico v. Facebook, Inc., No. D-101-CV-202100132 (N.M. First Jud. Dist. Ct.), or any appeal thereof before Jan 1, 2032, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis market resolves on a written ruling of the New Mexico Court of Appeals, the New Mexico Supreme Court or the U.S. Supreme Court. The penalty under review is the civil penalty in force when that court rules, whether the roughly $25 billion ordered on Oct 21, 2026 or an amount the district court later changes.\n\nA ruling that vacates or reverses the penalty, or any part of it, resolves the market to Yes, including a remand in which the district court may impose the penalty again. A ruling that reduces the penalty by any amount resolves the market to Yes.\n\nThe ruling must:\nBe issued by the New Mexico Court of Appeals, the New Mexico Supreme Court or the U.S. Supreme Court in State of New Mexico v. Facebook, Inc., No. D-101-CV-202100132 (N.M. First Jud. Dist. Ct.), or any appeal thereof\nAddress the matter described by the specified judgment\nBe issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision\n\nThe following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:\nAffirmance of the penalty in full\nA ruling that vacates or reverses the penalty only on grounds raised by the State, or only to reinstate or increase it\nA vacatur, reversal or dismissal entered because the parties settled or the appeal became moot, without a ruling on the merits of the penalty\nA change to the penalty made by the district court, including on a post-trial motion\nA ruling that affects only an injunction, interest, costs, attorney fees or the amount of a bond\nA stay order or an order granting, denying or dismissing a petition for review, certiorari or rehearing that does not itself reduce, vacate or reverse the penalty\nOral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order\nTentative rulings that are not made final\nDraft opinions that leak but are not officially issued\nSettlements or voluntary dismissals\nAdministrative or scheduling orders\nOrders to show cause\nMinute orders that do not address the substantive issue in the specified judgment\n\nFor clarity:\nIf the case is dismissed for lack of jurisdiction, that counts as a ruling only if the judgment refers to jurisdiction\nSua sponte rulings count if they match the specified judgment\nPer curiam opinions and summary orders count as rulings\nIf multiple judges issue separate opinions, the majority/plurality opinion controls\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination to No once any of the following occurs:\nThe penalty has become final, with no appeal or petition for review pending and the time to seek one, including a petition to the U.S. Supreme Court, expired\nEvery pending appeal and petition for review has been dismissed, withdrawn or denied, with no further review available\nThe parties have settled and no appeal or petition for review remains pending\n\nIf no qualifying ruling is issued after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2032, this market resolves to No.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.71,0.29000000000000004],"probability":0.71,"spread":0.06000000000000005,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-27T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2032-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2032-01-01T04:59:00Z","result":null,"volume":77.54,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.342175483703613,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-10T19:55:32.950873Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-10T19:55:32.950873Z","added_at":"2026-10-27T21:07:26.315716Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjudgment/will-metas-25-billion-new-mexico-penalty-be-cut-on-appeal/kxjudgment-metanm32","event_title":"Will Meta's $25 billion New Mexico penalty be cut on appeal?","chart_24h":[0.71,0.71,0.71]}]}