{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01","ticker":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01","title":"Makerfield by-election winner?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":104109.88,"volume_24hr":4943.67,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.969009399414062,"normalized_volume":34.656585693359375,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":82544.58,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Labour","top_outcome_probability":0.67,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1266.84,"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:24:14.909932Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:24:14.909932Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T19:00:45.452152Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldby/makerfield-by-election-winner/kxmakerfieldby-27jan01","chart_24h":[8627.56,8676.51,8908.51,7845.35,7688.98,8112.48,8633.48,8638.44,8641.42,7577.09,7526.96,8705.04,7855.04,7634.13,7096.740000000001,8121.12,7557.860000000001,7540.06,4162.47,4943.67],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-LAB","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-LAB","question":"Will Labour win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?","group_item_title":"Labour","description":"If the Labour party wins the 2026 Makerfield by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.67,0.32999999999999996],"probability":0.67,"spread":0.009999999999999898,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","volume":20009.39,"volume_24hr":100.5,"prob_24h_change":0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":-1266.84,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.654829978942871,"normalized_volume":31.827138900756836,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T14:31:59.818024Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T13:51:18.051147Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T19:00:45.977749Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldby/makerfield-by-election-winner/kxmakerfieldby-27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election winner?","chart_24h":[0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-REF","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-REF","question":"Will Reform UK win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?","group_item_title":"Reform UK","description":"If the Reform UK party wins the 2026 Makerfield by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":0.03999999999999998,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","volume":9610.17,"volume_24hr":802.93,"prob_24h_change":-0.07,"volume_24h_change":759.53,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.048315048217773,"normalized_volume":27.288454055786133,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T16:03:30.994189Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T16:03:30.994189Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T19:00:45.977749Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldby/makerfield-by-election-winner/kxmakerfieldby-27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election winner?","chart_24h":[0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-RES","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-RES","question":"Will Restore Britain win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?","group_item_title":"Restore Britain","description":"If the Restore Britain party wins the 2026 Makerfield by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.05,0.95],"probability":0.05,"spread":0.010000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-16T11:30:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","volume":61572.24,"volume_24hr":4040.24,"prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999995,"volume_24h_change":-3191.05,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.731321334838867,"normalized_volume":39.46098327636719,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:25:30.977741Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:24:14.989872Z","added_at":"2026-05-16T11:13:09.804494Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldby/makerfield-by-election-winner/kxmakerfieldby-27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election winner?","chart_24h":[0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-CON","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-CON","question":"Will Conservative win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?","group_item_title":"Conservative","description":"If the Conservative party wins the 2026 Makerfield by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","volume":1644.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.79442596435547,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-25T16:39:40.840512Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-24T15:49:59.226938Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T19:00:45.977749Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldby/makerfield-by-election-winner/kxmakerfieldby-27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election winner?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-GRE","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-GRE","question":"Will Green Party win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?","group_item_title":"Green Party","description":"If the Green Party party wins the 2026 Makerfield by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","volume":1676.58,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.88880157470703,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-25T18:38:02.827903Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-19T12:54:03.660915Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T19:00:45.977749Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldby/makerfield-by-election-winner/kxmakerfieldby-27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election winner?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-LIB","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-LIB","question":"Will Liberal Democrat win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?","group_item_title":"Liberal Democrat","description":"If the Liberal Democrat party wins the 2026 Makerfield by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","volume":9597.5,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.280603408813477,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-25T20:49:45.756378Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-25T01:08:50.645484Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T19:00:45.977749Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldby/makerfield-by-election-winner/kxmakerfieldby-27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election winner?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01","as_of":"2026-05-26T16:08:54.204287Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Makerfield by-election winner?\" — top market at 5% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}