{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","ticker":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","title":"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1318.0,"volume_24hr":1318.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.48495864868164,"normalized_volume":13.402599334716797,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":1014.0,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":"MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Andy Burnham, 0-3%","top_outcome_probability":0.13,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.13,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":282.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-26T23:45:46.627577Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T23:45:46.627577Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:09:35.972606Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldmov/makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory/kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01","chart_24h":[0.0,14.0,275.0,277.0,277.0,1182.0,1318.0],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P1","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P1","question":"Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 0% and 3%?","group_item_title":"Andy Burnham, 0-3%","description":"If the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Burnham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Burnham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Burnham wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Burnham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Burnham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Burnham will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Burnham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Burnham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Burnham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Burnham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","volume":282.0,"volume_24hr":282.0,"prob_24h_change":0.13,"volume_24h_change":282.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.73190689086914,"normalized_volume":10.34123420715332,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T22:53:27.065674Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T22:52:16.717570Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:09:36.046503Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldmov/makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory/kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P4","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P4","question":"Will the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 3% and 6%?","group_item_title":"Robert Kenyon, 3-6%","description":"If the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Robert Kenyon minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Robert Kenyon if Robert Kenyon wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Robert Kenyon loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Robert Kenyon if Robert Kenyon wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Robert Kenyon loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Robert Kenyon wins, or the electoral votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Robert Kenyon does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Robert Kenyon runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Robert Kenyon will be summed.\n\nIf Robert Kenyon wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Robert Kenyon loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Robert Kenyon ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Robert Kenyon is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.009999999999999995,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","volume":144.0,"volume_24hr":144.0,"prob_24h_change":0.13,"volume_24h_change":144.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.340058326721191,"normalized_volume":8.036455154418945,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T00:38:47.475432Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T00:38:47.475432Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:09:36.046503Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldmov/makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory/kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P7","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P7","question":"Will the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 6% and 9%?","group_item_title":"Robert Kenyon, 6-9%","description":"If the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Robert Kenyon minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Robert Kenyon if Robert Kenyon wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Robert Kenyon loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Robert Kenyon if Robert Kenyon wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Robert Kenyon loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Robert Kenyon wins, or the electoral votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Robert Kenyon does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Robert Kenyon runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Robert Kenyon will be summed.\n\nIf Robert Kenyon wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Robert Kenyon loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Robert Kenyon ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Robert Kenyon is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.009999999999999995,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","volume":86.0,"volume_24hr":86.0,"prob_24h_change":0.13,"volume_24h_change":86.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.715832233428955,"normalized_volume":6.471356391906738,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T02:12:30.173447Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T02:12:30.173447Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:09:36.046503Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldmov/makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory/kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P4","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P4","question":"Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 3% and 6%?","group_item_title":"Andy Burnham, 3-6%","description":"If the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Burnham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Burnham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Burnham wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Burnham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Burnham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Burnham will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Burnham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Burnham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Burnham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Burnham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.88],"probability":0.12,"spread":0.009999999999999995,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","volume":87.0,"volume_24hr":87.0,"prob_24h_change":0.12,"volume_24h_change":87.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.750248908996582,"normalized_volume":6.504520416259766,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T02:25:53.178760Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T02:25:53.178760Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:09:36.046503Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldmov/makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory/kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P7","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P7","question":"Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 6% and 9%?","group_item_title":"Andy Burnham, 6-9%","description":"If the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Burnham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Burnham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Burnham wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Burnham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Burnham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Burnham will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Burnham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Burnham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Burnham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Burnham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.11,0.89],"probability":0.11,"spread":0.009999999999999995,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","volume":160.0,"volume_24hr":160.0,"prob_24h_change":0.11,"volume_24h_change":160.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.694562911987305,"normalized_volume":8.378055572509766,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T22:53:27.065674Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T22:52:16.717570Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:09:36.046503Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldmov/makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory/kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P10","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P10","question":"Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 9% and 12%?","group_item_title":"Andy Burnham, 9-12%","description":"If the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Burnham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Burnham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Burnham wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Burnham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Burnham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Burnham will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Burnham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Burnham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Burnham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Burnham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1,0.9],"probability":0.1,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","volume":128.0,"volume_24hr":128.0,"prob_24h_change":0.1,"volume_24h_change":128.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.952785491943359,"normalized_volume":7.663280963897705,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T01:46:04.163127Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T01:46:04.163127Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:09:36.046503Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldmov/makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory/kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P57","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P57","question":"Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be above 15%?","group_item_title":"Andy Burnham, ≥15%","description":"If the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Burnham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Burnham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Burnham wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Burnham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Burnham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Burnham will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Burnham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Burnham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Burnham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Burnham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1,0.9],"probability":0.1,"spread":0.009999999999999995,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","volume":92.0,"volume_24hr":92.0,"prob_24h_change":0.1,"volume_24h_change":92.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.917910575866699,"normalized_volume":6.666078567504883,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T01:04:59.896990Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T01:04:59.896990Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:09:36.046503Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldmov/makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory/kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P1","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P1","question":"Will the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 0% and 3%?","group_item_title":"Robert Kenyon, 0-3%","description":"If the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Robert Kenyon minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Robert Kenyon if Robert Kenyon wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Robert Kenyon loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Robert Kenyon if Robert Kenyon wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Robert Kenyon loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Robert Kenyon wins, or the electoral votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Robert Kenyon does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Robert Kenyon runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Robert Kenyon will be summed.\n\nIf Robert Kenyon wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Robert Kenyon loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Robert Kenyon ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Robert Kenyon is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1,0.9],"probability":0.1,"spread":0.009999999999999995,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","volume":160.0,"volume_24hr":160.0,"prob_24h_change":0.1,"volume_24h_change":160.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.694562911987305,"normalized_volume":8.378055572509766,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T02:25:53.178760Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T02:25:53.178760Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:09:36.046503Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldmov/makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory/kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P54","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P54","question":"Will the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be above 9%?","group_item_title":"Robert Kenyon, ≥9%","description":"If the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 9% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Robert Kenyon minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Robert Kenyon if Robert Kenyon wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Robert Kenyon loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Robert Kenyon if Robert Kenyon wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Robert Kenyon loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Robert Kenyon wins, or the electoral votes received by Robert Kenyon minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Robert Kenyon does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Robert Kenyon runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Robert Kenyon will be summed.\n\nIf Robert Kenyon wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Robert Kenyon loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Robert Kenyon ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Robert Kenyon is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.07,0.9299999999999999],"probability":0.07,"spread":0.009999999999999995,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","volume":96.0,"volume_24hr":96.0,"prob_24h_change":0.07,"volume_24h_change":96.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.047053813934326,"normalized_volume":6.790520668029785,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T22:53:27.065674Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T22:52:16.717570Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:09:36.046503Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldmov/makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory/kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P13","event_id":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","slug":"KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P13","question":"Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 12% and 15%?","group_item_title":"Andy Burnham, 12-15%","description":"If the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 12% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Burnham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Burnham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Burnham if Andy Burnham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Burnham loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Burnham wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Burnham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Burnham does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Burnham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Burnham will be summed.\n\nIf Andy Burnham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Burnham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Burnham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Burnham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.06,0.94],"probability":0.06,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-18T14:00:00Z","volume":83.0,"volume_24hr":83.0,"prob_24h_change":0.06,"volume_24h_change":83.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.610705852508545,"normalized_volume":6.370057106018066,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T22:53:27.065674Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T22:52:16.717570Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:09:36.046503Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmakerfieldmov/makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory/kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01","event_title":"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01","as_of":"2026-05-27T02:55:55.787287Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Makerfield by-election margin of victory?\" — top market at 13% probability across 10 outcomes","source_url":null}}