{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","ticker":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","slug":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","title":"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-14T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3942.57,"volume_24hr":2320.34,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.097408294677734,"normalized_volume":15.598233222961426,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":1649.34,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":"MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Labour, ≥5%","top_outcome_probability":0.89,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.89,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":17.11,"updated_at":"2026-07-19T05:05:22.948505Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T05:05:22.948505Z","added_at":"2026-07-14T16:11:47.475436Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanchestermov/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory/kxmanchestermov-manchestermayor26jul30","chart_24h":[604.23,1217.23,1237.23,1629.23,2240.23,2242.23,2303.23,2320.34],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P52","event_id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","slug":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P52","question":"Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be above 5%?","group_item_title":"Labour, ≥5%","description":"If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 5% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows:\nIf a candidate receives more than half of all valid first-choice votes, margins are calculated using first-choice vote shares.\nOtherwise, each remaining candidate’s vote share is calculated from their first-choice votes plus valid transferred second-choice votes.\nAn eliminated candidate’s vote share is calculated using only their first-choice votes. Their margin is their vote share minus the winner’s final vote share.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Labour runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.89,0.10999999999999999],"probability":0.89,"spread":0.08999999999999997,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-14T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","volume":17.11,"volume_24hr":17.11,"prob_24h_change":0.89,"volume_24h_change":17.11,"normalized_vol_24hr":2.524855375289917,"normalized_volume":2.400646924972534,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-19T05:07:22.793020Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T05:05:23.087345Z","added_at":"2026-07-14T16:11:47.651089Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanchestermov/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory/kxmanchestermov-manchestermayor26jul30","event_title":"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.89]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P55","event_id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","slug":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P55","question":"Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be above 10%?","group_item_title":"Labour, ≥10%","description":"If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 10% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows:\nIf a candidate receives more than half of all valid first-choice votes, margins are calculated using first-choice vote shares.\nOtherwise, each remaining candidate’s vote share is calculated from their first-choice votes plus valid transferred second-choice votes.\nAn eliminated candidate’s vote share is calculated using only their first-choice votes. Their margin is their vote share minus the winner’s final vote share.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Labour runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.89,0.10999999999999999],"probability":0.89,"spread":0.06000000000000005,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-14T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","volume":1001.0,"volume_24hr":707.0,"prob_24h_change":0.10999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":646.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.960787773132324,"normalized_volume":13.662086486816406,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","added_at":"2026-07-14T16:11:47.651089Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanchestermov/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory/kxmanchestermov-manchestermayor26jul30","event_title":"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.78,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.83,0.83,0.83,0.89,0.89]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P57","event_id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","slug":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P57","question":"Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be above 15%?","group_item_title":"Labour, ≥15%","description":"If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows:\nIf a candidate receives more than half of all valid first-choice votes, margins are calculated using first-choice vote shares.\nOtherwise, each remaining candidate’s vote share is calculated from their first-choice votes plus valid transferred second-choice votes.\nAn eliminated candidate’s vote share is calculated using only their first-choice votes. Their margin is their vote share minus the winner’s final vote share.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Labour runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.73,0.27],"probability":0.73,"spread":0.17000000000000004,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-14T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","volume":662.46,"volume_24hr":278.23,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":278.23,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.546210289001465,"normalized_volume":12.08037281036377,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-19T05:05:23.087345Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T05:05:23.087345Z","added_at":"2026-07-14T16:11:47.651089Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanchestermov/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory/kxmanchestermov-manchestermayor26jul30","event_title":"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.73,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.73]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P60","event_id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","slug":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P60","question":"Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be above 20%?","group_item_title":"Labour, ≥20%","description":"If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows:\nIf a candidate receives more than half of all valid first-choice votes, margins are calculated using first-choice vote shares.\nOtherwise, each remaining candidate’s vote share is calculated from their first-choice votes plus valid transferred second-choice votes.\nAn eliminated candidate’s vote share is calculated using only their first-choice votes. Their margin is their vote share minus the winner’s final vote share.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Labour runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.61,0.39],"probability":0.61,"spread":0.17000000000000004,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-14T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","volume":447.0,"volume_24hr":50.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":50.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.652524471282959,"normalized_volume":10.664337158203125,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-19T05:05:23.087345Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T05:05:23.087345Z","added_at":"2026-07-14T16:11:47.651089Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanchestermov/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory/kxmanchestermov-manchestermayor26jul30","event_title":"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P62","event_id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","slug":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P62","question":"Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be above 25%?","group_item_title":"Labour, ≥25%","description":"If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 25% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows:\nIf a candidate receives more than half of all valid first-choice votes, margins are calculated using first-choice vote shares.\nOtherwise, each remaining candidate’s vote share is calculated from their first-choice votes plus valid transferred second-choice votes.\nAn eliminated candidate’s vote share is calculated using only their first-choice votes. Their margin is their vote share minus the winner’s final vote share.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Labour runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.49,0.51],"probability":0.49,"spread":0.07000000000000006,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-14T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","volume":351.0,"volume_24hr":140.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":140.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.370431900024414,"normalized_volume":9.838418006896973,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","added_at":"2026-07-14T16:11:47.651089Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanchestermov/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory/kxmanchestermov-manchestermayor26jul30","event_title":"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P65","event_id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","slug":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P65","question":"Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be above 30%?","group_item_title":"Labour, ≥30%","description":"If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 30% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows:\nIf a candidate receives more than half of all valid first-choice votes, margins are calculated using first-choice vote shares.\nOtherwise, each remaining candidate’s vote share is calculated from their first-choice votes plus valid transferred second-choice votes.\nAn eliminated candidate’s vote share is calculated using only their first-choice votes. Their margin is their vote share minus the winner’s final vote share.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Labour runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.36,0.64],"probability":0.36,"spread":0.09999999999999998,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-14T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","volume":130.0,"volume_24hr":65.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":65.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.282708168029785,"normalized_volume":6.801055908203125,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","added_at":"2026-07-14T16:11:47.651089Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanchestermov/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory/kxmanchestermov-manchestermayor26jul30","event_title":"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P75","event_id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","slug":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P75","question":"Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be at least 50%?","group_item_title":"Labour, ≥50%","description":"If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 50% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows:\nIf a candidate receives more than half of all valid first-choice votes, margins are calculated using first-choice vote shares.\nOtherwise, each remaining candidate’s vote share is calculated from their first-choice votes plus valid transferred second-choice votes.\nAn eliminated candidate’s vote share is calculated using only their first-choice votes. Their margin is their vote share minus the winner’s final vote share.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Labour runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.16,0.84],"probability":0.16,"spread":0.16,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-15T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","volume":1169.0,"volume_24hr":1063.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.01999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":1063.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.619739532470703,"normalized_volume":14.281922340393066,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","added_at":"2026-07-15T15:53:09.364448Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanchestermov/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory/kxmanchestermov-manchestermayor26jul30","event_title":"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P67","event_id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","slug":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P67","question":"Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be at least 35%?","group_item_title":"Labour, ≥35%","description":"If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 35% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows:\nIf a candidate receives more than half of all valid first-choice votes, margins are calculated using first-choice vote shares.\nOtherwise, each remaining candidate’s vote share is calculated from their first-choice votes plus valid transferred second-choice votes.\nAn eliminated candidate’s vote share is calculated using only their first-choice votes. Their margin is their vote share minus the winner’s final vote share.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Labour runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.28,0.72],"probability":0.28,"spread":0.09999999999999998,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-15T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","volume":55.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":4.636600017547607,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","added_at":"2026-07-15T15:53:09.364448Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanchestermov/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory/kxmanchestermov-manchestermayor26jul30","event_title":"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P70","event_id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","slug":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P70","question":"Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be at least 40%?","group_item_title":"Labour, ≥40%","description":"If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 40% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows:\nIf a candidate receives more than half of all valid first-choice votes, margins are calculated using first-choice vote shares.\nOtherwise, each remaining candidate’s vote share is calculated from their first-choice votes plus valid transferred second-choice votes.\nAn eliminated candidate’s vote share is calculated using only their first-choice votes. Their margin is their vote share minus the winner’s final vote share.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Labour runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.23,0.77],"probability":0.23,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-15T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","volume":55.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":4.636600017547607,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","added_at":"2026-07-15T15:53:09.364448Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanchestermov/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory/kxmanchestermov-manchestermayor26jul30","event_title":"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P72","event_id":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","slug":"KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30-LAB-P72","question":"Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be at least 45%?","group_item_title":"Labour, ≥45%","description":"If the margin of victory for the Labour Party in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election falls within 45% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows:\nIf a candidate receives more than half of all valid first-choice votes, margins are calculated using first-choice vote shares.\nOtherwise, each remaining candidate’s vote share is calculated from their first-choice votes plus valid transferred second-choice votes.\nAn eliminated candidate’s vote share is calculated using only their first-choice votes. Their margin is their vote share minus the winner’s final vote share.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Labour runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.2,0.8],"probability":0.2,"spread":0.09999999999999998,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-15T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-07-30T14:00:00Z","volume":55.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":4.636600017547607,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T04:36:14.448464Z","added_at":"2026-07-15T15:53:09.364448Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanchestermov/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory/kxmanchestermov-manchestermayor26jul30","event_title":"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXMANCHESTERMOV-MANCHESTERMAYOR26JUL30","as_of":"2026-07-19T07:01:30.671063Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?\" — top market at 16% probability across 10 outcomes","source_url":null}}