{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL","as_of":"2026-10-22T15:13:00.185232Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Alaska Senate margin of victory\" — 5 markets; highest \"Dan Sullivan, 8+ pts\" at 12% as of 2026-10-21 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL","source_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-aksendsul"},"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL","ticker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL","title":"Alaska Senate margin of victory","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-21T19:15:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":162.0,"volume_24hr":162.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.993805885314941,"normalized_volume":6.95373010635376,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":54.0,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Dan Sullivan, 8+ pts","top_outcome_probability":0.12,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.12,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":162.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-21T23:55:11.616453Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-21T23:55:11.616453Z","added_at":"2026-10-21T19:19:05.890739Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-aksendsul","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,162.0],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":5,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL-P8","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL-P8","question":"Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 8 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Dan Sullivan, 8+ pts","description":"If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nImportant information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation.\n\n\"Dan Sullivan\" refers to Daniel S. Sullivan, the incumbent Senator.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Sullivan minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Dan Sullivan if Dan Sullivan wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Dan Sullivan loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Dan Sullivan runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Dan Sullivan will be summed.\n\nIf Dan Sullivan wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Dan Sullivan loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Dan Sullivan ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Dan Sullivan is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.88],"probability":0.12,"spread":0.79,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-21T19:15:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T14:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":162.0,"volume_24hr":162.0,"prob_24h_change":0.12,"volume_24h_change":162.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.145617485046387,"normalized_volume":8.077085494995117,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-22T09:04:22.975890Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T09:04:22.975890Z","added_at":"2026-10-21T19:19:06.167682Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-aksendsul","event_title":"Alaska Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL-P10","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL-P10","question":"Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 10 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Dan Sullivan, 10+ pts","description":"If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nImportant information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation.\n\n\"Dan Sullivan\" refers to Daniel S. Sullivan, the incumbent Senator.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Sullivan minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Dan Sullivan if Dan Sullivan wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Dan Sullivan loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Dan Sullivan runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Dan Sullivan will be summed.\n\nIf Dan Sullivan wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Dan Sullivan loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Dan Sullivan ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Dan Sullivan is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.989,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-21T19:15:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T14:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-22T05:27:47.854231Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T05:27:47.854231Z","added_at":"2026-10-21T19:19:06.167682Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-aksendsul","event_title":"Alaska Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL-P2","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL-P2","question":"Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 2 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Dan Sullivan, 2+ pts","description":"If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nImportant information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation.\n\n\"Dan Sullivan\" refers to Daniel S. Sullivan, the incumbent Senator.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Sullivan minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Dan Sullivan if Dan Sullivan wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Dan Sullivan loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Dan Sullivan runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Dan Sullivan will be summed.\n\nIf Dan Sullivan wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Dan Sullivan loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Dan Sullivan ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Dan Sullivan is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.99,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-21T19:15:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T14:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-22T05:27:47.854231Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T05:27:47.854231Z","added_at":"2026-10-21T19:19:06.167682Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-aksendsul","event_title":"Alaska Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL-P4","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL-P4","question":"Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 4 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Dan Sullivan, 4+ pts","description":"If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nImportant information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation.\n\n\"Dan Sullivan\" refers to Daniel S. Sullivan, the incumbent Senator.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Sullivan minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Dan Sullivan if Dan Sullivan wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Dan Sullivan loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Dan Sullivan runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Dan Sullivan will be summed.\n\nIf Dan Sullivan wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Dan Sullivan loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Dan Sullivan ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Dan Sullivan is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.99,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-21T19:15:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T14:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-22T05:27:47.854231Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T05:27:47.854231Z","added_at":"2026-10-21T19:19:06.167682Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-aksendsul","event_title":"Alaska Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL-P6","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL-P6","question":"Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 6 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Dan Sullivan, 6+ pts","description":"If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nImportant information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation.\n\n\"Dan Sullivan\" refers to Daniel S. Sullivan, the incumbent Senator.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Sullivan minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Dan Sullivan if Dan Sullivan wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Dan Sullivan loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Dan Sullivan runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Dan Sullivan will be summed.\n\nIf Dan Sullivan wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Dan Sullivan loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Dan Sullivan ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Dan Sullivan is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.99,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-21T19:15:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T14:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-22T05:27:47.854231Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T05:27:47.854231Z","added_at":"2026-10-21T19:19:06.167682Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-aksendsul","event_title":"Alaska Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}]}