{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT","ticker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT","title":"California Governor Primary margin of victory","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-04T23:45:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":27145.24,"volume_24hr":4220.1,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.009071350097656,"normalized_volume":26.09557342529297,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":7509.01,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Steve Hilton, 3+ pts","top_outcome_probability":0.03,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-22T16:55:20.743888Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-22T16:55:20.743888Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/california-governor-primary-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-cagovpshilt","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT-P5","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT-P5","question":"Will the margin of victory for Steve Hilton in the governor primary election in California be at least 5 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Steve Hilton, 5+ pts","description":"If Steve Hilton wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Steve Hilton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Steve Hilton if Steve Hilton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Steve Hilton loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Steve Hilton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Steve Hilton will be summed.\n\nIf Steve Hilton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Steve Hilton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Steve Hilton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Steve Hilton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.022,0.978],"probability":0.022,"spread":0.019,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-04T23:45:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":13922.79,"volume_24hr":4220.1,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.659997940063477,"normalized_volume":26.632524490356445,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-22T20:48:05.001628Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-22T16:55:20.882030Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/california-governor-primary-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-cagovpshilt","event_title":"California Governor Primary margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.022,0.022]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT-P3","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT-P3","question":"Will the margin of victory for Steve Hilton in the governor primary election in California be at least 3 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Steve Hilton, 3+ pts","description":"If Steve Hilton wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Steve Hilton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Steve Hilton if Steve Hilton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Steve Hilton loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Steve Hilton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Steve Hilton will be summed.\n\nIf Steve Hilton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Steve Hilton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Steve Hilton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Steve Hilton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.97],"probability":0.03,"spread":0.017,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-04T23:45:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":6534.23,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.577306747436523,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-22T16:55:20.882030Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-22T16:55:20.882030Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/california-governor-primary-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-cagovpshilt","event_title":"California Governor Primary margin of victory","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT-P1","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT-P1","question":"Will the margin of victory for Steve Hilton in the governor primary election in California be at least 1 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Steve Hilton, 1+ pts","description":"If Steve Hilton wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Steve Hilton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Steve Hilton if Steve Hilton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Steve Hilton loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Steve Hilton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Steve Hilton will be summed.\n\nIf Steve Hilton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Steve Hilton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Steve Hilton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Steve Hilton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.019,0.981],"probability":0.019,"spread":0.012,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-04T23:45:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":6688.22,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.697175979614258,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-22T16:55:20.882030Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-22T16:55:20.882030Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/california-governor-primary-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-cagovpshilt","event_title":"California Governor Primary margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.019,0.019,0.019]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPSHILT","as_of":"2026-06-22T22:11:58.336056Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"California Governor Primary margin of victory\" — top market at 2% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}