{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS","ticker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS","title":"Kentucky's 4th District Primary  margin of victory","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":115136.93,"volume_24hr":8106.5199999999995,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.83678436279297,"normalized_volume":35.26321029663086,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":77332.94,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Thomas Massie, 8+ pts","top_outcome_probability":0.009,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.008,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1557.51,"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:37:35.980264Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:37:35.980264Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:09:16.754421Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kentuckys-4th-district-primary-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ky04ptmass","chart_24h":[14.950000000000001,14.98,44.98,42.58,30.03,342.16,7973.5199999999995,8106.5199999999995],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS-P8","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS-P8","question":"Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the Kentucky's 4th District House Primary  election be at least 8 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Thomas Massie, 8+ pts","description":"If Thomas Massie wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives Primary  election in Kentucky's 4th District by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Thomas Massie minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Thomas Massie if Thomas Massie wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Thomas Massie loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Thomas Massie runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Thomas Massie will be summed.\n\nIf Thomas Massie wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Thomas Massie loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Thomas Massie ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Thomas Massie is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.009,0.991],"probability":0.009,"spread":0.007,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":8113.67,"volume_24hr":1557.51,"prob_24h_change":0.008,"volume_24h_change":1557.51,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.381650924682617,"normalized_volume":26.29048728942871,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T14:44:00.012274Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T14:44:00.012274Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:09:16.872969Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kentuckys-4th-district-primary-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ky04ptmass","event_title":"Kentucky's 4th District Primary  margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.009,0.009,0.009]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS-P10","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS-P10","question":"Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the Kentucky's 4th District House Primary  election be at least 10 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Thomas Massie, 10+ pts","description":"If Thomas Massie wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives Primary  election in Kentucky's 4th District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Thomas Massie minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Thomas Massie if Thomas Massie wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Thomas Massie loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Thomas Massie runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Thomas Massie will be summed.\n\nIf Thomas Massie wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Thomas Massie loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Thomas Massie ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Thomas Massie is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":19074.53,"volume_24hr":312.16,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":312.13000000000005,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.843491554260254,"normalized_volume":31.520374298095703,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T07:20:57.046677Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-25T22:47:11.599592Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:09:16.872969Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kentuckys-4th-district-primary-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ky04ptmass","event_title":"Kentucky's 4th District Primary  margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS-P2","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS-P2","question":"Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the Kentucky's 4th District House Primary  election be at least 2 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Thomas Massie, 2+ pts","description":"If Thomas Massie wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives Primary  election in Kentucky's 4th District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Thomas Massie minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Thomas Massie if Thomas Massie wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Thomas Massie loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Thomas Massie runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Thomas Massie will be summed.\n\nIf Thomas Massie wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Thomas Massie loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Thomas Massie ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Thomas Massie is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":0.006,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":25110.53,"volume_24hr":30.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":17.45,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.229001998901367,"normalized_volume":33.303314208984375,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T07:20:57.046677Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-25T22:07:37.736084Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:09:16.872969Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kentuckys-4th-district-primary-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ky04ptmass","event_title":"Kentucky's 4th District Primary  margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS-P4","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS-P4","question":"Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the Kentucky's 4th District House Primary  election be at least 4 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Thomas Massie, 4+ pts","description":"If Thomas Massie wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives Primary  election in Kentucky's 4th District by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Thomas Massie minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Thomas Massie if Thomas Massie wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Thomas Massie loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Thomas Massie runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Thomas Massie will be summed.\n\nIf Thomas Massie wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Thomas Massie loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Thomas Massie ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Thomas Massie is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":0.002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":36987.34,"volume_24hr":2467.65,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":2467.65,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.882719039916992,"normalized_volume":35.89811325073242,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:38:35.458636Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:37:36.036273Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:09:16.872969Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kentuckys-4th-district-primary-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ky04ptmass","event_title":"Kentucky's 4th District Primary  margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.001]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS-P6","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS-P6","question":"Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the Kentucky's 4th District House Primary  election be at least 6 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Thomas Massie, 6+ pts","description":"If Thomas Massie wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives Primary  election in Kentucky's 4th District by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Thomas Massie minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Thomas Massie if Thomas Massie wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Thomas Massie loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Thomas Massie runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Thomas Massie will be summed.\n\nIf Thomas Massie wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Thomas Massie loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Thomas Massie ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Thomas Massie is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":0.004,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":25850.86,"volume_24hr":3739.2,"prob_24h_change":-0.003,"volume_24h_change":3736.7999999999997,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.272382736206055,"normalized_volume":33.49460983276367,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:38:35.458636Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:37:36.036273Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:09:16.872969Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kentuckys-4th-district-primary-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ky04ptmass","event_title":"Kentucky's 4th District Primary  margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.004,0.004,0.004,0.004,0.005,0.005,0.001]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXMIDTERMMOV-KY04PTMASS","as_of":"2026-05-26T16:08:04.454960Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Kentucky's 4th District Primary  margin of victory\" — top market at 0% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}