{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR","ticker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR","title":"Texas Senate margin of victory","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-28T01:03:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11336.199999999999,"volume_24hr":1361.94,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.48499870300293,"normalized_volume":22.630155563354492,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":3500.25,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Republicans, 13+ pts","top_outcome_probability":0.84,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.73,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":422.28,"updated_at":"2026-05-27T10:24:41.336852Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T10:24:41.336852Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/texas-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-txsenr","chart_24h":[20.0,47.230000000000004,62.67,176.10999999999999,212.19,544.93,593.95,893.95,1351.64,1360.94,1361.94],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P13","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P13","question":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 13 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Republicans, 13+ pts","description":"If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.84,0.16000000000000003],"probability":0.84,"spread":0.06999999999999999,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-28T01:03:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":424.28,"volume_24hr":422.28,"prob_24h_change":0.73,"volume_24h_change":422.28,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.207219123840332,"normalized_volume":11.887236595153809,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T05:04:24.540807Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T05:04:24.540807Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/texas-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-txsenr","event_title":"Texas Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.012,0.014,0.84]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P1","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P1","question":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Republicans, 1+ pts","description":"If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.52,0.48],"probability":0.52,"spread":0.030000000000000027,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-28T01:03:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":901.26,"volume_24hr":158.88,"prob_24h_change":0.030000000000000027,"volume_24h_change":158.88,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.593335151672363,"normalized_volume":15.025176048278809,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T10:25:57.846969Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T10:24:41.401201Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/texas-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-txsenr","event_title":"Texas Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.49,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P3","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P3","question":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Republicans, 3+ pts","description":"If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.45,0.55],"probability":0.45,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-28T01:03:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":3676.66,"volume_24hr":20.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.0933330059051514,"normalized_volume":21.870838165283203,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T05:46:16.942428Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T04:51:08.344444Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/texas-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-txsenr","event_title":"Texas Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P5","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P5","question":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Republicans, 5+ pts","description":"If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.3,0.7],"probability":0.3,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-28T01:03:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":3898.77,"volume_24hr":375.23,"prob_24h_change":-0.040000000000000036,"volume_24h_change":375.23,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.736188888549805,"normalized_volume":22.184383392333984,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T04:39:03.559955Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T04:37:46.365827Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/texas-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-txsenr","event_title":"Texas Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.3]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P7","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P7","question":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 7 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Republicans, 7+ pts","description":"If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.17,0.83],"probability":0.17,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-28T01:03:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":1948.33,"volume_24hr":359.57,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":359.57,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.568514823913574,"normalized_volume":18.61952781677246,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T05:04:24.540807Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T05:04:24.540807Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/texas-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-txsenr","event_title":"Texas Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P9","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P9","question":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 9 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Republicans, 9+ pts","description":"If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.041,0.959],"probability":0.041,"spread":0.07999999999999999,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-28T01:03:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":269.3,"volume_24hr":25.98,"prob_24h_change":-0.07899999999999999,"volume_24h_change":25.98,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.6234679222106934,"normalized_volume":10.173707962036133,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T04:51:08.344444Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T04:51:08.344444Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/texas-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-txsenr","event_title":"Texas Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.12,0.12,0.041,0.041,0.041,0.041]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P11","event_id":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR","slug":"KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P11","question":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 11 percentage points?","group_item_title":"Republicans, 11+ pts","description":"If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.\n\nIf the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.093,0.907],"probability":0.093,"spread":0.061,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-28T01:03:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","volume":217.6,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.416921615600586,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T04:51:08.344444Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T04:51:08.344444Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/texas-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-txsenr","event_title":"Texas Senate margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.093,0.093,0.093,0.093,0.093,0.093,0.093,0.093]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR","as_of":"2026-05-27T11:39:02.324370Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Texas Senate margin of victory\" — top market at 84% probability across 7 outcomes","source_url":null}}