{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18","ticker":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18","slug":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18","title":"Minnesota Republican Governor primary recount: margin shift?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-17T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1609.0,"volume_24hr":1609.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.865413665771484,"normalized_volume":15.036269187927246,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":1599.0,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No change","top_outcome_probability":0.65,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.65,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1609.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-20T00:30:26.353858Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T00:30:26.353858Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T21:16:12.955610Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmnrecountmargin/minnesota-republican-governor-primary-recount-margin-shift/kxmnrecountmargin-26sep18","chart_24h":[0.0,600.0,1199.0,1599.0,1609.0],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-E0","event_id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18","slug":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-E0","question":"Will the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor be exactly 0 at the primary's final certification?","group_item_title":"No change","description":"If the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor is exactly 0 at the primary's final certification, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe change is Demuth's margin over Lindell at the Minnesota State Canvassing Board's final certification of the August 11, 2026 primary, minus her margin at the Board's initial certification on August 18, 2026, in whole votes. A positive value means Demuth gained, a negative value means Lindell gained, and each range includes both of its endpoints. This market refers to raw votes, not percentages.\n\nFinal certification means the Board's post-recount certification, or its August 18, 2026 certification if no recount is conducted, in which case the change is zero and No change resolves YES. The certified figure governs even if the requesting candidate waives the balance of the recount after the first precincts.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.65,0.35],"probability":0.65,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-17T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-18T13:59:00Z","volume":1609.0,"volume_24hr":1609.0,"prob_24h_change":0.65,"volume_24h_change":1609.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.352771759033203,"normalized_volume":16.973114013671875,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T02:32:13.443390Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T02:32:13.443390Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T21:16:13.103868Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmnrecountmargin/minnesota-republican-governor-primary-recount-margin-shift/kxmnrecountmargin-26sep18","event_title":"Minnesota Republican Governor primary recount: margin shift?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.14,0.14,0.29,0.39,0.65,0.65,0.65]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-A40","event_id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18","slug":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-A40","question":"Will the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor be above 40 at the primary's final certification?","group_item_title":"Demuth gains 41 or more","description":"If the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor is above 40 at the primary's final certification, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe change is Demuth's margin over Lindell at the Minnesota State Canvassing Board's final certification of the August 11, 2026 primary, minus her margin at the Board's initial certification on August 18, 2026, in whole votes. A positive value means Demuth gained, a negative value means Lindell gained, and each range includes both of its endpoints. This market refers to raw votes, not percentages.\n\nFinal certification means the Board's post-recount certification, or its August 18, 2026 certification if no recount is conducted, in which case the change is zero and No change resolves YES. The certified figure governs even if the requesting candidate waives the balance of the recount after the first precincts.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.09,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-17T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-18T13:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T01:44:21.936680Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T01:44:21.936680Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T21:16:13.103868Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmnrecountmargin/minnesota-republican-governor-primary-recount-margin-shift/kxmnrecountmargin-26sep18","event_title":"Minnesota Republican Governor primary recount: margin shift?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-B-25","event_id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18","slug":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-B-25","question":"Will the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor be between -40 and -11 at the primary's final certification?","group_item_title":"Lindell gains 11 to 40","description":"If the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor is between -40 and -11 at the primary's final certification, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe change is Demuth's margin over Lindell at the Minnesota State Canvassing Board's final certification of the August 11, 2026 primary, minus her margin at the Board's initial certification on August 18, 2026, in whole votes. A positive value means Demuth gained, a negative value means Lindell gained, and each range includes both of its endpoints. This market refers to raw votes, not percentages.\n\nFinal certification means the Board's post-recount certification, or its August 18, 2026 certification if no recount is conducted, in which case the change is zero and No change resolves YES. The certified figure governs even if the requesting candidate waives the balance of the recount after the first precincts.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.04000000000000001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-17T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-18T13:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T02:32:13.443390Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T02:32:13.443390Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T21:16:13.103868Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmnrecountmargin/minnesota-republican-governor-primary-recount-margin-shift/kxmnrecountmargin-26sep18","event_title":"Minnesota Republican Governor primary recount: margin shift?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-B-5","event_id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18","slug":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-B-5","question":"Will the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor be between -10 and -1 at the primary's final certification?","group_item_title":"Lindell gains 1 to 10","description":"If the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor is between -10 and -1 at the primary's final certification, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe change is Demuth's margin over Lindell at the Minnesota State Canvassing Board's final certification of the August 11, 2026 primary, minus her margin at the Board's initial certification on August 18, 2026, in whole votes. A positive value means Demuth gained, a negative value means Lindell gained, and each range includes both of its endpoints. This market refers to raw votes, not percentages.\n\nFinal certification means the Board's post-recount certification, or its August 18, 2026 certification if no recount is conducted, in which case the change is zero and No change resolves YES. The certified figure governs even if the requesting candidate waives the balance of the recount after the first precincts.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.030000000000000006,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-17T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-18T13:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T02:32:13.443390Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T02:32:13.443390Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T21:16:13.103868Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmnrecountmargin/minnesota-republican-governor-primary-recount-margin-shift/kxmnrecountmargin-26sep18","event_title":"Minnesota Republican Governor primary recount: margin shift?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-B25","event_id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18","slug":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-B25","question":"Will the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor be between 11 and 40 at the primary's final certification?","group_item_title":"Demuth gains 11 to 40","description":"If the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor is between 11 and 40 at the primary's final certification, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe change is Demuth's margin over Lindell at the Minnesota State Canvassing Board's final certification of the August 11, 2026 primary, minus her margin at the Board's initial certification on August 18, 2026, in whole votes. A positive value means Demuth gained, a negative value means Lindell gained, and each range includes both of its endpoints. This market refers to raw votes, not percentages.\n\nFinal certification means the Board's post-recount certification, or its August 18, 2026 certification if no recount is conducted, in which case the change is zero and No change resolves YES. The certified figure governs even if the requesting candidate waives the balance of the recount after the first precincts.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.04000000000000001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-17T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-18T13:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T02:32:13.443390Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T02:32:13.443390Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T21:16:13.103868Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmnrecountmargin/minnesota-republican-governor-primary-recount-margin-shift/kxmnrecountmargin-26sep18","event_title":"Minnesota Republican Governor primary recount: margin shift?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-B5","event_id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18","slug":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-B5","question":"Will the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor be between 1 and 10 at the primary's final certification?","group_item_title":"Demuth gains 1 to 10","description":"If the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor is between 1 and 10 at the primary's final certification, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe change is Demuth's margin over Lindell at the Minnesota State Canvassing Board's final certification of the August 11, 2026 primary, minus her margin at the Board's initial certification on August 18, 2026, in whole votes. A positive value means Demuth gained, a negative value means Lindell gained, and each range includes both of its endpoints. This market refers to raw votes, not percentages.\n\nFinal certification means the Board's post-recount certification, or its August 18, 2026 certification if no recount is conducted, in which case the change is zero and No change resolves YES. The certified figure governs even if the requesting candidate waives the balance of the recount after the first precincts.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.030000000000000006,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-17T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-18T13:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T02:32:13.443390Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T02:32:13.443390Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T21:16:13.103868Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmnrecountmargin/minnesota-republican-governor-primary-recount-margin-shift/kxmnrecountmargin-26sep18","event_title":"Minnesota Republican Governor primary recount: margin shift?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-U-40","event_id":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18","slug":"KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18-U-40","question":"Will the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor be below -40 at the primary's final certification?","group_item_title":"Lindell gains 41 or more","description":"If the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor is below -40 at the primary's final certification, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe change is Demuth's margin over Lindell at the Minnesota State Canvassing Board's final certification of the August 11, 2026 primary, minus her margin at the Board's initial certification on August 18, 2026, in whole votes. A positive value means Demuth gained, a negative value means Lindell gained, and each range includes both of its endpoints. This market refers to raw votes, not percentages.\n\nFinal certification means the Board's post-recount certification, or its August 18, 2026 certification if no recount is conducted, in which case the change is zero and No change resolves YES. The certified figure governs even if the requesting candidate waives the balance of the recount after the first precincts.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.09,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-17T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-18T13:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T02:07:42.584467Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T02:07:42.584467Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T21:16:13.103868Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmnrecountmargin/minnesota-republican-governor-primary-recount-margin-shift/kxmnrecountmargin-26sep18","event_title":"Minnesota Republican Governor primary recount: margin shift?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXMNRECOUNTMARGIN-26SEP18","as_of":"2026-08-20T03:06:53.996866Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Minnesota Republican Governor primary recount: margin shift?\" — top market at 65% probability across 7 outcomes","source_url":null}}