{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXNBERRECESSQ","as_of":"2026-10-24T03:25:15.997126Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"When will the next US recession start?\" — \"Q1 2026\" leads at 3% across 6 outcomes as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXNBERRECESSQ","source_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnberrecessq/when-will-the-next-us-recession-start/kxnberrecessq"},"source":"kalshi","id":"KXNBERRECESSQ","ticker":"KXNBERRECESSQ","slug":"KXNBERRECESSQ","title":"When will the next US recession start?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-19T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":520868.93,"volume_24hr":31.21,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.105142116546631,"normalized_volume":46.41205978393555,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":178772.26,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Q1 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.031,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T01:46:49.543235Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T01:46:49.543235Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnberrecessq/when-will-the-next-us-recession-start/kxnberrecessq","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets_total":6,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q3-2025","event_id":"KXNBERRECESSQ","slug":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q3-2025","question":"When will the next U.S. recession start?","group_item_title":"Q3 2025","description":"If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q3 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nClarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as \"February 2020 (2019Q4)\" would resolve YES for the market called \"Q4 2019\" (if this was listed).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":0.024999999999999998,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-19T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":83689.63,"volume_24hr":31.21,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":31.21,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.7371907234191895,"normalized_volume":39.99571228027344,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T03:03:20.513025Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T03:03:20.513025Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnberrecessq/when-will-the-next-us-recession-start/kxnberrecessq","event_title":"When will the next US recession start?","chart_24h":[0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q1-2026","event_id":"KXNBERRECESSQ","slug":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q1-2026","question":"When will the next U.S. recession start?","group_item_title":"Q1 2026","description":"If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nClarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as \"February 2020 (2019Q4)\" would resolve YES for the market called \"Q4 2019\" (if this was listed).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.031,0.969],"probability":0.031,"spread":0.055999999999999994,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-16T17:30:45Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":86115.93,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.19765090942383,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-22T14:58:49.478391Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T14:58:49.478391Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnberrecessq/when-will-the-next-us-recession-start/kxnberrecessq","event_title":"When will the next US recession start?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q4-2025","event_id":"KXNBERRECESSQ","slug":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q4-2025","question":"When will the next U.S. recession start?","group_item_title":"Q4 2025","description":"If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nClarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as \"February 2020 (2019Q4)\" would resolve YES for the market called \"Q4 2019\" (if this was listed).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.006,0.994],"probability":0.006,"spread":0.056,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-16T17:30:38Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":97437.57,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.076263427734375,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-22T14:58:49.478391Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T14:58:49.478391Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnberrecessq/when-will-the-next-us-recession-start/kxnberrecessq","event_title":"When will the next US recession start?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q4-2024","event_id":"KXNBERRECESSQ","slug":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q4-2024","question":"When will the next U.S. recession start?","group_item_title":"Q4 2024","description":"If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nClarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as \"February 2020 (2019Q4)\" would resolve YES for the market called \"Q4 2019\" (if this was listed).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.002,0.998],"probability":0.002,"spread":0.027999999999999997,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-19T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":46247.24,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.91962432861328,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-22T20:45:00.433958Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T20:45:00.433958Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnberrecessq/when-will-the-next-us-recession-start/kxnberrecessq","event_title":"When will the next US recession start?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q1-2025","event_id":"KXNBERRECESSQ","slug":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q1-2025","question":"When will the next U.S. recession start?","group_item_title":"Q1 2025","description":"If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nClarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as \"February 2020 (2019Q4)\" would resolve YES for the market called \"Q4 2019\" (if this was listed).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":0.009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-19T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":75998.87,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.31833267211914,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-22T14:58:49.478391Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T14:58:49.478391Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnberrecessq/when-will-the-next-us-recession-start/kxnberrecessq","event_title":"When will the next US recession start?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q2-2025","event_id":"KXNBERRECESSQ","slug":"KXNBERRECESSQ-Q2-2025","question":"When will the next U.S. recession start?","group_item_title":"Q2 2025","description":"If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q2 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nClarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as \"February 2020 (2019Q4)\" would resolve YES for the market called \"Q4 2019\" (if this was listed).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-19T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":131379.69,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.2415771484375,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-22T20:45:00.433958Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T20:45:00.433958Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnberrecessq/when-will-the-next-us-recession-start/kxnberrecessq","event_title":"When will the next US recession start?","chart_24h":null}]}