{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXNEWDEAL-JUL01","ticker":"KXNEWDEAL-JUL01","slug":"KXNEWDEAL-JUL01","title":"Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":75.88,"volume_24hr":50.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.7362446784973145,"normalized_volume":4.96466064453125,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":75.88,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jul 1, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.2,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.16999999999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":50.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T06:54:28.000031Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T06:54:28.000031Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T14:14:22.313295Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewdeal/will-trump-announce-a-new-trade-deal-in-jun-2026/kxnewdeal-jul01","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXNEWDEAL-JUL01","event_id":"KXNEWDEAL-JUL01","slug":"KXNEWDEAL-JUL01","question":"When will Trump announce a new trade deal?","group_item_title":"Before Jul 1, 2026","description":"If the President announces a new trade deal before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:\n\nMade through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances\nExplicitly describes the arrangement as a \"trade deal,\" \"trade agreement,\" \"trade memorandum,\" \"trade pact,\" or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement\nInvolves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc\n\nPreliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement. It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements. New arrangements include, but are not limited to:\n\nAgreements with a country, territory, or trade bloc with which the United States does not currently have a comprehensive trade agreement\nAgreements that cover trade sectors, industries, or product categories not previously covered by existing U.S. trade agreements with the same partner(s)\nAn agreement that establishes fundamentally different trade mechanisms, dispute resolution procedures, or regulatory frameworks compared to existing agreements with the same partner(s)\n\nThe following qualify as announcements that trigger the Payout Criterion:\n\nA new bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and another country\nA new multilateral trade agreement involving the U.S. and multiple countries\nTrade memoranda of understanding that establish new trade frameworks\nSector-specific trade deals (e.g., agricultural, technology, energy trade agreements)\nTrade arrangements that are announced as \"agreements in principle\" or \"framework agreements\"\n\nThe following do NOT trigger the Payout Criterion:\n\nInformal statements, leaks, or \"sources say\" reports without official presidential announcement\nAnnouncements of trade negotiations beginning, trade talks being scheduled, or intentions to pursue trade deals\nTariff announcements, trade sanctions, or trade enforcement actions that do not establish new bilateral or multilateral trade frameworks\nCongressional approval or ratification of previously announced deals\nAnnouncements of trade visits, delegations, or diplomatic meetings without announcing an actual deal\nAnnouncements regarding domestic trade policy changes that do not involve foreign partners","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.2,0.8],"probability":0.2,"spread":0.09000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","volume":75.88,"volume_24hr":50.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.16999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":50.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.094668388366699,"normalized_volume":5.779353618621826,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T06:55:16.374895Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T06:54:28.211088Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T14:14:22.420372Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewdeal/will-trump-announce-a-new-trade-deal-in-jun-2026/kxnewdeal-jul01","event_title":"Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?","chart_24h":[0.37,0.2]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXNEWDEAL-JUL01","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:42:29.496121Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?\" — top market at 20% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}