{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXNIREFCALL-30JAN01","ticker":"KXNIREFCALL-30JAN01","slug":"KXNIREFCALL-30JAN01","title":"Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-13T20:00:00Z","end_date":"2030-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2716.41,"volume_24hr":2716.41,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.670127868652344,"normalized_volume":16.970203399658203,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":1521.52,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Yes","top_outcome_probability":0.24,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.24,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2716.41,"updated_at":"2026-09-14T04:15:08.829791Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-14T04:15:08.829791Z","added_at":"2026-09-13T20:05:04.722360Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnirefcall/will-northern-ireland-announce-a-reunification-referendum/kxnirefcall-30jan01","chart_24h":[0.0,40.0,891.51,903.18,2676.85,2676.85,2716.41],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXNIREFCALL-30JAN01-YES","event_id":"KXNIREFCALL-30JAN01","slug":"KXNIREFCALL-30JAN01-YES","question":"Will Northern Ireland confirm a reunification referendum before 2030?","group_item_title":"Yes","description":"If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:\n\nFormal signing of treaties\nParliamentary approval with binding effect\nOfficial ratification\nFormal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority\nOfficial statements by authorized ministers\nOfficial press releases\nFormal declarations during government proceedings\nOfficial statements to international bodies\n\nPhased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.\n\nThe following do NOT qualify:\n\nPreliminary discussions\nConditional agreements contingent on circumstances\nOpposition party statements\nLeaked documents\nThink-tank recommendations\nGeneral aspirations without specific commitment\nDraft legislation without approval\nRegional actions (unless specified)\nRetraction of previously announced commitments\n\nA border poll is a referendum on whether Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland. A formal order directing the poll or an unequivocal official announcement recording the Secretary of State's decision to hold it qualifies. A polling date is not required, and voting may occur after January 1, 2030. Party pledges, requests, consultations, preparations, and general statements of intent do not qualify. Statements by the Northern Ireland Executive, Irish Government, or another official do not qualify unless they officially record the Secretary of State's decision.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.24,0.76],"probability":0.24,"spread":0.009999999999999981,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-13T20:00:00Z","end_date":"2030-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":2716.41,"volume_24hr":2716.41,"prob_24h_change":0.24,"volume_24h_change":2716.41,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.656036376953125,"normalized_volume":19.464828491210938,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-14T04:15:08.929519Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-14T04:15:08.929519Z","added_at":"2026-09-13T20:05:04.853246Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnirefcall/will-northern-ireland-announce-a-reunification-referendum/kxnirefcall-30jan01","event_title":"Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.54,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXNIREFCALL-30JAN01","as_of":"2026-09-14T07:15:06.578996Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum?\" — top market at 24% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}