{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26","ticker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26","title":"CA-32 Primary margin of victory?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14893.02,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.310211181640625,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":7262.9,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":"CAPRIMARY32FIRST26","parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Brad Sherman, 5-10%","top_outcome_probability":0.19,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-24.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T07:31:17.532935Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T07:31:17.532935Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:00:42.255672Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/ca-32-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-caprimary32first26","chart_24h":[13.62,0.0],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-BSHE-P7","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-BSHE-P7","question":"Will the margin of victory for Brad Sherman in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary be between 5% and 10%?","group_item_title":"Brad Sherman, 5-10%","description":"If the margin of victory for Brad Sherman in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Brad Sherman minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Sherman if Brad Sherman wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Brad Sherman loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Brad Sherman minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Sherman if Brad Sherman wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Brad Sherman loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Brad Sherman minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Brad Sherman wins, or the electoral votes received by Brad Sherman minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Brad Sherman does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Brad Sherman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Brad Sherman will be summed.\n\nIf Brad Sherman wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Brad Sherman loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Brad Sherman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Brad Sherman is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.81],"probability":0.19,"spread":0.77,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":981.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-24.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.549141883850098,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T22:35:29.032361Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T22:35:29.032361Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:00:42.611014Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/ca-32-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-caprimary32first26","event_title":"CA-32 Primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-BSHE-P12","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-BSHE-P12","question":"Will the margin of victory for Brad Sherman in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary be between 10% and 15%?","group_item_title":"Brad Sherman, 10-15%","description":"If the margin of victory for Brad Sherman in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary falls within 10% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Brad Sherman minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Sherman if Brad Sherman wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Brad Sherman loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Brad Sherman minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Sherman if Brad Sherman wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Brad Sherman loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Brad Sherman minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Brad Sherman wins, or the electoral votes received by Brad Sherman minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Brad Sherman does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Brad Sherman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Brad Sherman will be summed.\n\nIf Brad Sherman wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Brad Sherman loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Brad Sherman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Brad Sherman is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.97],"probability":0.03,"spread":0.77,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":2136.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-24.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.01852798461914,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:01:51.276940Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:01:51.276940Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:00:42.611014Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/ca-32-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-caprimary32first26","event_title":"CA-32 Primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-LTHO-P50","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-LTHO-P50","question":"Will the margin of victory for Larry Thompson in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary be above 0%?","group_item_title":"Larry Thompson wins","description":"If the margin of victory for Larry Thompson in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary falls within 0% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Larry Thompson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Larry Thompson if Larry Thompson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Larry Thompson loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Larry Thompson minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Larry Thompson if Larry Thompson wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Larry Thompson loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Larry Thompson minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Larry Thompson wins, or the electoral votes received by Larry Thompson minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Larry Thompson does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Larry Thompson runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Larry Thompson will be summed.\n\nIf Larry Thompson wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Larry Thompson loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Larry Thompson ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Larry Thompson is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":1708.24,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.9840145111084,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T05:26:49.549368Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-08T17:06:26.895183Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:00:42.611014Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/ca-32-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-caprimary32first26","event_title":"CA-32 Primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.02,0.02]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-BSHE-P17","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-BSHE-P17","question":"Will the margin of victory for Brad Sherman in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary be between 15% and 20%?","group_item_title":"Brad Sherman, 15-20%","description":"If the margin of victory for Brad Sherman in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary falls within 15% to 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Brad Sherman minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Sherman if Brad Sherman wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Brad Sherman loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Brad Sherman minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Sherman if Brad Sherman wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Brad Sherman loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Brad Sherman minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Brad Sherman wins, or the electoral votes received by Brad Sherman minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Brad Sherman does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Brad Sherman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Brad Sherman will be summed.\n\nIf Brad Sherman wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Brad Sherman loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Brad Sherman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Brad Sherman is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.3,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":1634.38,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-10.62,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.783035278320312,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:26:41.733628Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:26:41.733628Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:00:42.611014Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/ca-32-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-caprimary32first26","event_title":"CA-32 Primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-BSHE-P2","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-BSHE-P2","question":"Will the margin of victory for Brad Sherman in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary be between 0% and 5%?","group_item_title":"Brad Sherman, 0-5%","description":"If the margin of victory for Brad Sherman in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Brad Sherman minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Sherman if Brad Sherman wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Brad Sherman loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Brad Sherman minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Sherman if Brad Sherman wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Brad Sherman loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Brad Sherman minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Brad Sherman wins, or the electoral votes received by Brad Sherman minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Brad Sherman does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Brad Sherman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Brad Sherman will be summed.\n\nIf Brad Sherman wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Brad Sherman loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Brad Sherman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Brad Sherman is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.37,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":2494.4,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.754642486572266,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T10:50:40.866842Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T23:14:20.442738Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:00:42.611014Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/ca-32-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-caprimary32first26","event_title":"CA-32 Primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-BSHE-P60","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26-BSHE-P60","question":"Will the margin of victory for Brad Sherman in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary be above 20%?","group_item_title":"Brad Sherman, ≥20%","description":"If the margin of victory for Brad Sherman in the 2026 California 32nd Congressional District primary falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Brad Sherman minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Sherman if Brad Sherman wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Brad Sherman loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Brad Sherman minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Sherman if Brad Sherman wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Brad Sherman loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Brad Sherman minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Brad Sherman wins, or the electoral votes received by Brad Sherman minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Brad Sherman does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Brad Sherman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Brad Sherman will be summed.\n\nIf Brad Sherman wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Brad Sherman loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Brad Sherman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Brad Sherman is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":5939.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-3.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.143896102905273,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T07:32:22.830853Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T07:31:17.661372Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:00:42.611014Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/ca-32-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-caprimary32first26","event_title":"CA-32 Primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXPRIMARYMOV-CAPRIMARY32FIRST26","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:35:20.143469Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"CA-32 Primary margin of victory?\" — top market at 19% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}