{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","ticker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","title":"MI-07 Democratic primary margin of victory?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-03T15:23:00Z","end_date":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":301.0,"volume_24hr":301.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.8731689453125,"normalized_volume":8.803455352783203,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":301.0,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":"MIPRIMARY07D26","parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"William Lawrence, ≥12%","top_outcome_probability":0.57,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-03T21:17:07.614577Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T21:17:07.614577Z","added_at":"2026-08-03T15:32:16.725843Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mi-07-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-miprimary07d26","chart_24h":[300.0,301.0],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P56","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P56","question":"Will the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary be at least 12%?","group_item_title":"William Lawrence, ≥12%","description":"If the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary falls within 12% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by William Lawrence minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind William Lawrence if William Lawrence wins, or the candidate that finishes first if William Lawrence loses. If William Lawrence wins, the margin will be positive; if William Lawrence loses, the margin will be negative; if William Lawrence ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If William Lawrence runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.57,0.43000000000000005],"probability":0.57,"spread":0.04999999999999993,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-03T15:23:00Z","end_date":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","volume":300.0,"volume_24hr":300.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.66297435760498,"normalized_volume":10.139391899108887,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-03T19:49:33.450855Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T19:49:33.450855Z","added_at":"2026-08-03T15:32:16.945242Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mi-07-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-miprimary07d26","event_title":"MI-07 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P62","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P62","question":"Will the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary be at least 24%?","group_item_title":"William Lawrence, ≥24%","description":"If the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary falls within 24% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by William Lawrence minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind William Lawrence if William Lawrence wins, or the candidate that finishes first if William Lawrence loses. If William Lawrence wins, the margin will be positive; if William Lawrence loses, the margin will be negative; if William Lawrence ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If William Lawrence runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.06,0.94],"probability":0.06,"spread":0.009999999999999995,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-03T15:23:00Z","end_date":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","volume":1.0,"volume_24hr":1.0,"prob_24h_change":0.06,"volume_24h_change":1.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.20154111087322235,"normalized_volume":0.14956511557102203,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-03T21:20:27.771602Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T21:17:08.094209Z","added_at":"2026-08-03T15:32:16.945242Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mi-07-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-miprimary07d26","event_title":"MI-07 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.06]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P51","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P51","question":"Will the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary be at least 3%?","group_item_title":"William Lawrence, ≥3%","description":"If the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary falls within 3% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by William Lawrence minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind William Lawrence if William Lawrence wins, or the candidate that finishes first if William Lawrence loses. If William Lawrence wins, the margin will be positive; if William Lawrence loses, the margin will be negative; if William Lawrence ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If William Lawrence runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.039999999999999925,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-03T15:23:00Z","end_date":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-03T19:18:34.326168Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T19:18:34.326168Z","added_at":"2026-08-03T15:32:16.945242Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mi-07-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-miprimary07d26","event_title":"MI-07 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P53","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P53","question":"Will the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary be at least 6%?","group_item_title":"William Lawrence, ≥6%","description":"If the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary falls within 6% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by William Lawrence minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind William Lawrence if William Lawrence wins, or the candidate that finishes first if William Lawrence loses. If William Lawrence wins, the margin will be positive; if William Lawrence loses, the margin will be negative; if William Lawrence ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If William Lawrence runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.06000000000000005,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-03T15:23:00Z","end_date":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-03T19:49:33.450855Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T19:49:33.450855Z","added_at":"2026-08-03T15:32:16.945242Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mi-07-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-miprimary07d26","event_title":"MI-07 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P54","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P54","question":"Will the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary be at least 9%?","group_item_title":"William Lawrence, ≥9%","description":"If the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary falls within 9% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by William Lawrence minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind William Lawrence if William Lawrence wins, or the candidate that finishes first if William Lawrence loses. If William Lawrence wins, the margin will be positive; if William Lawrence loses, the margin will be negative; if William Lawrence ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If William Lawrence runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.06000000000000005,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-03T15:23:00Z","end_date":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-03T19:49:33.450855Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T19:49:33.450855Z","added_at":"2026-08-03T15:32:16.945242Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mi-07-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-miprimary07d26","event_title":"MI-07 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P57","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P57","question":"Will the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary be at least 15%?","group_item_title":"William Lawrence, ≥15%","description":"If the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by William Lawrence minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind William Lawrence if William Lawrence wins, or the candidate that finishes first if William Lawrence loses. If William Lawrence wins, the margin will be positive; if William Lawrence loses, the margin will be negative; if William Lawrence ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If William Lawrence runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.04999999999999999,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-03T15:23:00Z","end_date":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-04T01:25:46.023864Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-04T01:25:46.023864Z","added_at":"2026-08-03T15:32:16.945242Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mi-07-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-miprimary07d26","event_title":"MI-07 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P59","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P59","question":"Will the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary be at least 18%?","group_item_title":"William Lawrence, ≥18%","description":"If the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary falls within 18% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by William Lawrence minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind William Lawrence if William Lawrence wins, or the candidate that finishes first if William Lawrence loses. If William Lawrence wins, the margin will be positive; if William Lawrence loses, the margin will be negative; if William Lawrence ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If William Lawrence runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-03T15:23:00Z","end_date":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-03T20:17:49.834606Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T20:17:49.834606Z","added_at":"2026-08-03T15:32:16.945242Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mi-07-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-miprimary07d26","event_title":"MI-07 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P60","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW-P60","question":"Will the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary be at least 21%?","group_item_title":"William Lawrence, ≥21%","description":"If the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary falls within 21% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by William Lawrence minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind William Lawrence if William Lawrence wins, or the candidate that finishes first if William Lawrence loses. If William Lawrence wins, the margin will be positive; if William Lawrence loses, the margin will be negative; if William Lawrence ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If William Lawrence runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-03T15:23:00Z","end_date":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-03T20:17:49.834606Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T20:17:49.834606Z","added_at":"2026-08-03T15:32:16.945242Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mi-07-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-miprimary07d26","event_title":"MI-07 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXPRIMARYMOV-MIPRIMARY07D26","as_of":"2026-08-04T03:42:58.267020Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"MI-07 Democratic primary margin of victory?\" — top market at 57% probability across 8 outcomes","source_url":null}}