{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26","ticker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26","title":"MT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:45:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":26748.28,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.363554000854492,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":17557.33,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Sam Forstag wins","top_outcome_probability":0.99,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-05T19:46:01.987900Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T19:46:01.987900Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:56:49.410855Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mt-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-mt01d26","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-SFOR-P50","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-SFOR-P50","question":"Will the margin of victory for Sam Forstag in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary be above 0%?","group_item_title":"Sam Forstag wins","description":"If the margin of victory for Sam Forstag in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary falls within 0% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Sam Forstag minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Sam Forstag if Sam Forstag wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Sam Forstag loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Sam Forstag minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Sam Forstag if Sam Forstag wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Sam Forstag loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Sam Forstag minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Sam Forstag wins, or the electoral votes received by Sam Forstag minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Sam Forstag does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Sam Forstag runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Sam Forstag will be summed.\n\nIf Sam Forstag wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Sam Forstag loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Sam Forstag ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Sam Forstag is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.99,0.010000000000000009],"probability":0.99,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:45:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":8857.29,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.321712493896484,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T20:38:50.213962Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T19:46:02.230375Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:56:49.701043Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mt-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-mt01d26","event_title":"MT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.99,0.99]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-RBUS-P12","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-RBUS-P12","question":"Will the margin of victory for Ryan Busse in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary be between 10% and 15%?","group_item_title":"Ryan Busse, 10-15%","description":"If the margin of victory for Ryan Busse in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary falls within 10% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ryan Busse minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ryan Busse if Ryan Busse wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ryan Busse loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Ryan Busse minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ryan Busse if Ryan Busse wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ryan Busse loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ryan Busse minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ryan Busse wins, or the electoral votes received by Ryan Busse minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ryan Busse does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ryan Busse runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ryan Busse will be summed.\n\nIf Ryan Busse wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ryan Busse loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ryan Busse ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ryan Busse is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:45:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":3663.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.641742706298828,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T07:57:05.743940Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T05:23:45.917862Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:56:49.701043Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mt-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-mt01d26","event_title":"MT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-RBUS-P17","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-RBUS-P17","question":"Will the margin of victory for Ryan Busse in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary be between 15% and 20%?","group_item_title":"Ryan Busse, 15-20%","description":"If the margin of victory for Ryan Busse in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary falls within 15% to 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ryan Busse minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ryan Busse if Ryan Busse wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ryan Busse loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Ryan Busse minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ryan Busse if Ryan Busse wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ryan Busse loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ryan Busse minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ryan Busse wins, or the electoral votes received by Ryan Busse minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ryan Busse does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ryan Busse runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ryan Busse will be summed.\n\nIf Ryan Busse wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ryan Busse loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ryan Busse ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ryan Busse is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:45:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":4672.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":21.883575439453125,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T18:03:35.145799Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-04T17:03:58.813414Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:56:49.701043Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mt-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-mt01d26","event_title":"MT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-RBUS-P2","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-RBUS-P2","question":"Will the margin of victory for Ryan Busse in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary be between 0% and 5%?","group_item_title":"Ryan Busse, 0-5%","description":"If the margin of victory for Ryan Busse in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ryan Busse minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ryan Busse if Ryan Busse wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ryan Busse loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Ryan Busse minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ryan Busse if Ryan Busse wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ryan Busse loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ryan Busse minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ryan Busse wins, or the electoral votes received by Ryan Busse minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ryan Busse does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ryan Busse runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ryan Busse will be summed.\n\nIf Ryan Busse wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ryan Busse loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ryan Busse ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ryan Busse is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:45:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":2556.99,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.873620986938477,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T17:24:30.175370Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T19:46:02.230375Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:56:49.701043Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mt-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-mt01d26","event_title":"MT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-RBUS-P60","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-RBUS-P60","question":"Will the margin of victory for Ryan Busse in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary be above 20%?","group_item_title":"Ryan Busse, ≥20%","description":"If the margin of victory for Ryan Busse in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ryan Busse minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ryan Busse if Ryan Busse wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ryan Busse loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Ryan Busse minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ryan Busse if Ryan Busse wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ryan Busse loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ryan Busse minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ryan Busse wins, or the electoral votes received by Ryan Busse minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ryan Busse does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ryan Busse runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ryan Busse will be summed.\n\nIf Ryan Busse wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ryan Busse loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ryan Busse ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ryan Busse is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:45:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":3507.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.42344093322754,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:33:52.905385Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T05:23:45.917862Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:56:49.701043Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mt-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-mt01d26","event_title":"MT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-RBUS-P7","event_id":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26","slug":"KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26-RBUS-P7","question":"Will the margin of victory for Ryan Busse in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary be between 5% and 10%?","group_item_title":"Ryan Busse, 5-10%","description":"If the margin of victory for Ryan Busse in the 2026 MT-01 Democratic primary falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ryan Busse minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ryan Busse if Ryan Busse wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ryan Busse loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Ryan Busse minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ryan Busse if Ryan Busse wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ryan Busse loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ryan Busse minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ryan Busse wins, or the electoral votes received by Ryan Busse minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ryan Busse does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ryan Busse runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ryan Busse will be summed.\n\nIf Ryan Busse wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ryan Busse loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ryan Busse ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ryan Busse is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T19:45:00Z","end_date":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","volume":3492.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.40200424194336,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T21:18:57.968345Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-04T18:11:15.011069Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T19:56:49.701043Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxprimarymov/mt-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory/kxprimarymov-mt01d26","event_title":"MT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXPRIMARYMOV-MT01D26","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:38:25.971581Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"MT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?\" — top market at 99% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}