{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRECOGROC-29","ticker":"KXRECOGROC-29","slug":"KXRECOGROC-29","title":"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-12-18T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":35301.57,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.604063034057617,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":12880.85,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 20, 2029","top_outcome_probability":0.085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-04T23:36:08.861841Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-04T23:36:08.861841Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogroc/will-trump-recognize-taiwan/kxrecogroc-29","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRECOGROC-29","event_id":"KXRECOGROC-29","slug":"KXRECOGROC-29","question":"Will Trump recognize Somaliland?","group_item_title":"Before Jan 20, 2029","description":"If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.\n\nMerely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.05500000000000001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-12-18T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","volume":28976.47,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.86106872558594,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Somalia"],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T13:13:02.406165Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-04T23:36:09.000067Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogroc/will-trump-recognize-taiwan/kxrecogroc-29","event_title":"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?","chart_24h":[0.085,0.085]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRECOGROC-29-27","event_id":"KXRECOGROC-29","slug":"KXRECOGROC-29-27","question":"Will Trump recognize the Republic of China?","group_item_title":"Before 2027","description":"If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.\n\nMerely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.96],"probability":0.04,"spread":0.010000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-11T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","volume":6325.1,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.847209930419922,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-08-04T20:39:44.364378Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-04T20:39:44.364378Z","added_at":"2026-05-11T15:49:22.781416Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogroc/will-trump-recognize-taiwan/kxrecogroc-29","event_title":"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXRECOGROC-29","as_of":"2026-08-05T17:59:42.600185Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?\" — top market at 8% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}