{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRECOGROC-29","ticker":"KXRECOGROC-29","slug":"KXRECOGROC-29","title":"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-12-18T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":28913.53,"volume_24hr":138.97,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.055091857910156,"normalized_volume":27.78229331970215,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":10114.970000000001,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 20, 2029","top_outcome_probability":0.18,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999981,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":80.26,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T00:06:07.048935Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T00:06:07.048935Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogroc/will-trump-recognize-taiwan/kxrecogroc-29","chart_24h":[0.0,54.0,80.26,138.97],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRECOGROC-29","event_id":"KXRECOGROC-29","slug":"KXRECOGROC-29","question":"Will Trump recognize Somaliland?","group_item_title":"Before Jan 20, 2029","description":"If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.\n\nMerely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.18,0.8200000000000001],"probability":0.18,"spread":0.04000000000000001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-12-18T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","volume":27037.14,"volume_24hr":80.26,"prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999981,"volume_24h_change":80.26,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.627410888671875,"normalized_volume":31.921022415161133,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Somalia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:11:40.419753Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T02:04:17.023130Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogroc/will-trump-recognize-taiwan/kxrecogroc-29","event_title":"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?","chart_24h":[0.17,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRECOGROC-29-27","event_id":"KXRECOGROC-29","slug":"KXRECOGROC-29-27","question":"Will Trump recognize the Republic of China?","group_item_title":"Before 2027","description":"If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.\n\nMerely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.06999999999999999,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-11T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","volume":1876.39,"volume_24hr":58.71,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":58.71,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.595919609069824,"normalized_volume":17.414899826049805,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T00:08:20.214705Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T00:06:07.398288Z","added_at":"2026-05-11T15:49:22.781416Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogroc/will-trump-recognize-taiwan/kxrecogroc-29","event_title":"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?","chart_24h":[0.08,0.08,0.08]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXRECOGROC-29","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:31:37.619388Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?\" — top market at 18% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}