{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXRECOGROC-29","as_of":"2026-11-04T01:19:54.622133Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?\" — 2 markets; highest \"Before Jan 20, 2029\" at 8% as of 2026-11-04 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXRECOGROC-29","source_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogroc/will-trump-recognize-taiwan/kxrecogroc-29"},"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRECOGROC-29","ticker":"KXRECOGROC-29","slug":"KXRECOGROC-29","title":"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-12-18T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":39222.590000000004,"volume_24hr":312.26,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.813579559326172,"normalized_volume":29.810997009277344,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":12082.58,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 20, 2029","top_outcome_probability":0.079,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.040999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":267.54,"updated_at":"2026-11-04T00:11:54.289239Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T00:11:54.289239Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogroc/will-trump-recognize-taiwan/kxrecogroc-29","chart_24h":[40.72,65.26,75.26,318.26,312.26],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":2,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRECOGROC-29","event_id":"KXRECOGROC-29","slug":"KXRECOGROC-29","question":"Will Trump recognize Somaliland?","group_item_title":"Before Jan 20, 2029","description":"If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.\n\nMerely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.079,0.921],"probability":0.079,"spread":0.021000000000000005,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-12-18T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":29960.31,"volume_24hr":268.62,"prob_24h_change":-0.040999999999999995,"volume_24h_change":267.54,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.729477882385254,"normalized_volume":31.266489028930664,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Somalia"],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T18:24:30.844764Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T18:24:30.844764Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogroc/will-trump-recognize-taiwan/kxrecogroc-29","event_title":"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?","chart_24h":[0.12,0.12,0.11,0.079,0.079,0.079,0.079]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRECOGROC-29-27","event_id":"KXRECOGROC-29","slug":"KXRECOGROC-29-27","question":"Will Trump recognize the Republic of China?","group_item_title":"Before 2027","description":"If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.\n\nMerely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":0.049999999999999996,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-11T16:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","result":null,"volume":9262.28,"volume_24hr":43.64,"prob_24h_change":-0.039999999999999994,"volume_24h_change":4.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.942195415496826,"normalized_volume":24.55065155029297,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T00:11:54.746910Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T00:11:54.746910Z","added_at":"2026-05-11T15:49:22.781416Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogroc/will-trump-recognize-taiwan/kxrecogroc-29","event_title":"Will Trump recognize Taiwan?","chart_24h":[0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02]}]}