{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29","as_of":"2026-11-11T02:55:06.355152Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Who will leave Trump's Cabinet first: Rubio or Hegseth?\" — \"Pete Hegseth\" leads at 66% across 3 outcomes as of 2026-11-11 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29","source_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrubiohegsethfirst/who-will-leave-trumps-cabinet-first-rubio-or-hegseth/kxrubiohegsethfirst-29"},"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29","ticker":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29","slug":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29","title":"Who will leave Trump's Cabinet first: Rubio or Hegseth?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-27T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2931.79,"volume_24hr":2931.79,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.440114974975586,"normalized_volume":16.8204402923584,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":2490.88,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Pete Hegseth","top_outcome_probability":0.66,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.13,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":445.86,"updated_at":"2026-11-11T02:43:10.003572Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-11T02:43:10.003572Z","added_at":"2026-11-09T21:07:58.113758Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrubiohegsethfirst/who-will-leave-trumps-cabinet-first-rubio-or-hegseth/kxrubiohegsethfirst-29","chart_24h":[45.12,2429.1400000000003,2509.0200000000004,2509.1600000000003,2882.96],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets_total":3,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29-PHEG","event_id":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29","slug":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29-PHEG","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pete Hegseth is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029?","group_item_title":"Pete Hegseth","description":"If Pete Hegseth is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. The first official is the one whose announcement or departure comes first after Issuance. If a single announcement covers both named officials, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of named officials covered by that announcement.\n\nLeaving means ceasing to be Secretary of State, for Marco Rubio, or Secretary of Defense, for Pete Hegseth, by resignation, firing, removal or a move to another post; a change in the name of the office is not leaving. Leaving only another role, such as National Security Advisor, a temporary leave or recusal, being considered for another position, and impeachment without removal do NOT count. A departure that takes effect at the end of the current presidential term on Jan 20, 2029 does NOT count, including a statement that he will not serve in the next administration.\n\nNo officials will be added to this event. None resolves to Yes if neither named official leaves or announces he will leave his position before Jan 20, 2029.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.66,0.33999999999999997],"probability":0.66,"spread":0.050000000000000044,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-27T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2029-01-20T04:59:00Z","result":null,"volume":490.98,"volume_24hr":490.98,"prob_24h_change":-0.13,"volume_24h_change":445.86,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.192168235778809,"normalized_volume":10.779315948486328,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-11T02:43:10.318361Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-11T02:43:10.318361Z","added_at":"2026-11-09T21:07:58.294831Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrubiohegsethfirst/who-will-leave-trumps-cabinet-first-rubio-or-hegseth/kxrubiohegsethfirst-29","event_title":"Who will leave Trump's Cabinet first: Rubio or Hegseth?","chart_24h":[0.79,0.79,0.79,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.66,0.66,0.66]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29-MRUB","event_id":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29","slug":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29-MRUB","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Marco Rubio is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of State before Jan 20, 2029?","group_item_title":"Marco Rubio","description":"If Marco Rubio is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of State after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. The first official is the one whose announcement or departure comes first after Issuance. If a single announcement covers both named officials, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of named officials covered by that announcement.\n\nLeaving means ceasing to be Secretary of State, for Marco Rubio, or Secretary of Defense, for Pete Hegseth, by resignation, firing, removal or a move to another post; a change in the name of the office is not leaving. Leaving only another role, such as National Security Advisor, a temporary leave or recusal, being considered for another position, and impeachment without removal do NOT count. A departure that takes effect at the end of the current presidential term on Jan 20, 2029 does NOT count, including a statement that he will not serve in the next administration.\n\nNo officials will be added to this event. None resolves to Yes if neither named official leaves or announces he will leave his position before Jan 20, 2029.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":0.08999999999999997,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-27T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2029-01-20T04:59:00Z","result":null,"volume":2440.81,"volume_24hr":2440.81,"prob_24h_change":0.26,"volume_24h_change":2440.81,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.89276695251465,"normalized_volume":17.07147216796875,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-11T02:11:09.822265Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-11T02:11:09.822265Z","added_at":"2026-11-09T21:07:58.294831Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrubiohegsethfirst/who-will-leave-trumps-cabinet-first-rubio-or-hegseth/kxrubiohegsethfirst-29","event_title":"Who will leave Trump's Cabinet first: Rubio or Hegseth?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29-NONE","event_id":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29","slug":"KXRUBIOHEGSETHFIRST-29-NONE","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that neither of the two officials named in this event leaves, or announces he will leave, his position before Jan 20, 2029?","group_item_title":"None","description":"If neither of the two officials named in this event leaves, or announces he will leave, his position after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. The first official is the one whose announcement or departure comes first after Issuance. If a single announcement covers both named officials, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of named officials covered by that announcement.\n\nLeaving means ceasing to be Secretary of State, for Marco Rubio, or Secretary of Defense, for Pete Hegseth, by resignation, firing, removal or a move to another post; a change in the name of the office is not leaving. Leaving only another role, such as National Security Advisor, a temporary leave or recusal, being considered for another position, and impeachment without removal do NOT count. A departure that takes effect at the end of the current presidential term on Jan 20, 2029 does NOT count, including a statement that he will not serve in the next administration.\n\nNo officials will be added to this event. None resolves to Yes if neither named official leaves or announces he will leave his position before Jan 20, 2029.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.08000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-27T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2029-01-20T04:59:00Z","result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-11T01:07:43.647397Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-11T01:07:43.647397Z","added_at":"2026-11-09T21:07:58.294831Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrubiohegsethfirst/who-will-leave-trumps-cabinet-first-rubio-or-hegseth/kxrubiohegsethfirst-29","event_title":"Who will leave Trump's Cabinet first: Rubio or Hegseth?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}]}