{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29","ticker":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29","slug":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29","title":"Spanish general election: margin of victory","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":528.0,"volume_24hr":528.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.969196319580078,"normalized_volume":10.599666595458984,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":462.0,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"People's Party, 3-6%","top_outcome_probability":0.3,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.3,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":66.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-06T02:09:03.365580Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T02:09:03.365580Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T21:05:39.480573Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspainmov/spanish-general-election-margin-of-victory/kxspainmov-26nov29","chart_24h":[0.0,462.0,528.0],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PP-P4","event_id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29","slug":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PP-P4","question":"Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 3% and 6%?","group_item_title":"People's Party, 3-6%","description":"If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 3% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the share of valid votes received by the party named in the market minus the share received by the party that finishes second if the named party finishes first, or minus the share of the party that finishes first if the named party does not. If the named party finishes first, the margin will be positive; if it does not, the margin will be negative; if it ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote shares are the nationwide percentages of valid votes (which in Spain include blank ballots) in the official Congress of Deputies results published by the Ministerio del Interior, under which votes for a party's regional affiliate lists (for example, PSC-PSOE for PSOE) count toward that party.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 3-6% and 6-9%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 3-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-9% range.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.3,0.7],"probability":0.3,"spread":0.04999999999999999,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","volume":66.0,"volume_24hr":66.0,"prob_24h_change":0.3,"volume_24h_change":66.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.268703460693359,"normalized_volume":5.503612995147705,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Spain"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T01:20:44.475496Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T01:20:44.475496Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T21:05:39.647953Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspainmov/spanish-general-election-margin-of-victory/kxspainmov-26nov29","event_title":"Spanish general election: margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.3]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PP-P7","event_id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29","slug":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PP-P7","question":"Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 6% and 9%?","group_item_title":"People's Party, 6-9%","description":"If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 6% to 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the share of valid votes received by the party named in the market minus the share received by the party that finishes second if the named party finishes first, or minus the share of the party that finishes first if the named party does not. If the named party finishes first, the margin will be positive; if it does not, the margin will be negative; if it ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote shares are the nationwide percentages of valid votes (which in Spain include blank ballots) in the official Congress of Deputies results published by the Ministerio del Interior, under which votes for a party's regional affiliate lists (for example, PSC-PSOE for PSOE) count toward that party.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 3-6% and 6-9%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 3-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-9% range.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.23,0.77],"probability":0.23,"spread":0.05000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","volume":132.0,"volume_24hr":132.0,"prob_24h_change":0.23,"volume_24h_change":132.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.479865074157715,"normalized_volume":7.444904327392578,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Spain"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T02:09:03.735571Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T02:09:03.735571Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T21:05:39.647953Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspainmov/spanish-general-election-margin-of-victory/kxspainmov-26nov29","event_title":"Spanish general election: margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.24,0.24,0.23]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PP-P1","event_id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29","slug":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PP-P1","question":"Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 0% and 3%?","group_item_title":"People's Party, 0-3%","description":"If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the share of valid votes received by the party named in the market minus the share received by the party that finishes second if the named party finishes first, or minus the share of the party that finishes first if the named party does not. If the named party finishes first, the margin will be positive; if it does not, the margin will be negative; if it ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote shares are the nationwide percentages of valid votes (which in Spain include blank ballots) in the official Congress of Deputies results published by the Ministerio del Interior, under which votes for a party's regional affiliate lists (for example, PSC-PSOE for PSOE) count toward that party.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 3-6% and 6-9%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 3-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-9% range.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.2,0.8],"probability":0.2,"spread":0.04000000000000001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","volume":66.0,"volume_24hr":66.0,"prob_24h_change":0.2,"volume_24h_change":66.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.268703460693359,"normalized_volume":5.503612995147705,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Spain"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T02:37:26.589067Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T02:37:26.589067Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T21:05:39.647953Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspainmov/spanish-general-election-margin-of-victory/kxspainmov-26nov29","event_title":"Spanish general election: margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.2,0.2,0.2]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PP-P10","event_id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29","slug":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PP-P10","question":"Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 9% and 12%?","group_item_title":"People's Party, 9-12%","description":"If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 9% to 12%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the share of valid votes received by the party named in the market minus the share received by the party that finishes second if the named party finishes first, or minus the share of the party that finishes first if the named party does not. If the named party finishes first, the margin will be positive; if it does not, the margin will be negative; if it ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote shares are the nationwide percentages of valid votes (which in Spain include blank ballots) in the official Congress of Deputies results published by the Ministerio del Interior, under which votes for a party's regional affiliate lists (for example, PSC-PSOE for PSOE) count toward that party.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 3-6% and 6-9%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 3-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-9% range.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.88],"probability":0.12,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","volume":66.0,"volume_24hr":66.0,"prob_24h_change":0.12,"volume_24h_change":66.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.268703460693359,"normalized_volume":5.503612995147705,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Spain"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T02:37:26.589067Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T02:37:26.589067Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T21:05:39.647953Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspainmov/spanish-general-election-margin-of-victory/kxspainmov-26nov29","event_title":"Spanish general election: margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.12,0.12,0.12]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PSOE-P1","event_id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29","slug":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PSOE-P1","question":"Will the margin of victory for PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 0% and 3%?","group_item_title":"PSOE, 0-3%","description":"If the margin of victory for PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the share of valid votes received by the party named in the market minus the share received by the party that finishes second if the named party finishes first, or minus the share of the party that finishes first if the named party does not. If the named party finishes first, the margin will be positive; if it does not, the margin will be negative; if it ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote shares are the nationwide percentages of valid votes (which in Spain include blank ballots) in the official Congress of Deputies results published by the Ministerio del Interior, under which votes for a party's regional affiliate lists (for example, PSC-PSOE for PSOE) count toward that party.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 3-6% and 6-9%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 3-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-9% range.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1,0.9],"probability":0.1,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","volume":66.0,"volume_24hr":66.0,"prob_24h_change":0.1,"volume_24h_change":66.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.268703460693359,"normalized_volume":5.503612995147705,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Spain"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T01:20:44.475496Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T01:20:44.475496Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T21:05:39.647953Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspainmov/spanish-general-election-margin-of-victory/kxspainmov-26nov29","event_title":"Spanish general election: margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.1]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PP-P12","event_id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29","slug":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PP-P12","question":"Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be at least 12%?","group_item_title":"People's Party, ≥12%","description":"If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is at or above 12%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the share of valid votes received by the party named in the market minus the share received by the party that finishes second if the named party finishes first, or minus the share of the party that finishes first if the named party does not. If the named party finishes first, the margin will be positive; if it does not, the margin will be negative; if it ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote shares are the nationwide percentages of valid votes (which in Spain include blank ballots) in the official Congress of Deputies results published by the Ministerio del Interior, under which votes for a party's regional affiliate lists (for example, PSC-PSOE for PSOE) count toward that party.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 3-6% and 6-9%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 3-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-9% range.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.06,0.94],"probability":0.06,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","volume":66.0,"volume_24hr":66.0,"prob_24h_change":0.06,"volume_24h_change":66.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.268703460693359,"normalized_volume":5.503612995147705,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Spain"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T01:20:44.475496Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T01:20:44.475496Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T21:05:39.647953Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspainmov/spanish-general-election-margin-of-victory/kxspainmov-26nov29","event_title":"Spanish general election: margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.06]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PSOE-P3","event_id":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29","slug":"KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29-PSOE-P3","question":"Will the margin of victory for PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election be at least 3%?","group_item_title":"PSOE, ≥3%","description":"If the margin of victory for PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe margin of victory is the share of valid votes received by the party named in the market minus the share received by the party that finishes second if the named party finishes first, or minus the share of the party that finishes first if the named party does not. If the named party finishes first, the margin will be positive; if it does not, the margin will be negative; if it ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote shares are the nationwide percentages of valid votes (which in Spain include blank ballots) in the official Congress of Deputies results published by the Ministerio del Interior, under which votes for a party's regional affiliate lists (for example, PSC-PSOE for PSOE) count toward that party.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 3-6% and 6-9%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 3-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-9% range.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.96],"probability":0.04,"spread":0.010000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-11-29T15:00:00Z","volume":66.0,"volume_24hr":66.0,"prob_24h_change":0.04,"volume_24h_change":66.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.268703460693359,"normalized_volume":5.503612995147705,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Spain"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T01:20:44.475496Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T01:20:44.475496Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T21:05:39.647953Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspainmov/spanish-general-election-margin-of-victory/kxspainmov-26nov29","event_title":"Spanish general election: margin of victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.04]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXSPAINMOV-26NOV29","as_of":"2026-10-06T02:57:27.363821Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Spanish general election: margin of victory\" — top market at 23% probability across 7 outcomes","source_url":null}}