{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01","ticker":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01","slug":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01","title":"What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-04T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96147.44,"volume_24hr":498.93,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.793829917907715,"normalized_volume":34.18089294433594,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":29426.27,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Between 10% and 19.99%","top_outcome_probability":0.57,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.039999999999999925,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3.579999999999984,"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:11:09.044512Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:11:09.044512Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffrateprc/what-will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-on-july-1/kxtariffrateprc-26jul01","chart_24h":[1679.05,1630.4499999999998,1721.76,1947.4899999999998,1948.4899999999998,1492.09,1315.69,1282.69,1280.8899999999999,1280.8899999999999,1284.69,1284.58,1265.25,1276.45,1293.77,498.93],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-14","event_id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01","slug":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-14","question":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"Between 10% and 19.99%","description":"If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 10 to 19.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.57,0.43000000000000005],"probability":0.57,"spread":0.04999999999999993,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-04T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","volume":31344.35,"volume_24hr":243.38,"prob_24h_change":0.039999999999999925,"volume_24h_change":3.579999999999984,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.843374252319336,"normalized_volume":34.77708435058594,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T16:03:57.366853Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T16:03:57.366853Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffrateprc/what-will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-on-july-1/kxtariffrateprc-26jul01","event_title":"What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?","chart_24h":[0.53,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.57]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-5","event_id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01","slug":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-5","question":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"Below 10%","description":"If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is below 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":0.04000000000000001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-04T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","volume":14571.13,"volume_24hr":94.49,"prob_24h_change":0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":94.49,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.453904628753662,"normalized_volume":29.821470260620117,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T13:52:29.285630Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T13:51:45.463691Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffrateprc/what-will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-on-july-1/kxtariffrateprc-26jul01","event_title":"What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?","chart_24h":[0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-24","event_id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01","slug":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-24","question":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"Between 20% and 29.99%","description":"If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 20 to 29.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.18,0.8200000000000001],"probability":0.18,"spread":0.04000000000000001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-04T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","volume":29453.06,"volume_24hr":161.06,"prob_24h_change":-0.03,"volume_24h_change":-840.5,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.283870697021484,"normalized_volume":34.3602294921875,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:37:52.030668Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:37:52.030668Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffrateprc/what-will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-on-july-1/kxtariffrateprc-26jul01","event_title":"What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?","chart_24h":[0.21,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-34","event_id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01","slug":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-34","question":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"Between 30% and 39.99%","description":"If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 30 to 39.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.048,0.952],"probability":0.048,"spread":0.030000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-04T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","volume":11811.98,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-437.69,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.52983856201172,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T11:54:14.050903Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T11:53:30.351149Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffrateprc/what-will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-on-july-1/kxtariffrateprc-26jul01","event_title":"What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?","chart_24h":[0.048,0.048,0.048,0.048,0.048,0.048,0.048,0.048,0.048,0.048,0.048,0.048]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-30","event_id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01","slug":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-30","question":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"Above 60%","description":"If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is above 60%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.97],"probability":0.03,"spread":0.045,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-04T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","volume":1778.51,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.174150466918945,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T14:31:16.763576Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T14:31:16.763576Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffrateprc/what-will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-on-july-1/kxtariffrateprc-26jul01","event_title":"What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?","chart_24h":[0.03,0.03,0.03]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-55","event_id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01","slug":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-55","question":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 50% and 60% on Jul 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"Between 50% and 60%","description":"If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 50 to 60%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.97],"probability":0.03,"spread":0.045,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-04T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","volume":2362.35,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.57833480834961,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-25T23:28:00.568063Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-25T00:30:05.376415Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffrateprc/what-will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-on-july-1/kxtariffrateprc-26jul01","event_title":"What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-44","event_id":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01","slug":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-44","question":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"Between 40% and 49.99%","description":"If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 40 to 49.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-04T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","volume":4826.06,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.343799591064453,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T09:44:01.343713Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-25T00:30:05.376415Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffrateprc/what-will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-on-july-1/kxtariffrateprc-26jul01","event_title":"What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01","as_of":"2026-05-26T16:09:42.218578Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?\" — top market at 57% probability across 7 outcomes","source_url":null}}