{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUKBUDGETTAX-26OCT29","ticker":"KXUKBUDGETTAX-26OCT29","slug":"KXUKBUDGETTAX-26OCT29","title":"Will the UK raise taxes in the October Budget?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-08T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-11-05T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Yes","top_outcome_probability":0.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T22:02:14.641326Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T22:02:14.641326Z","added_at":"2026-09-08T22:02:14.641326Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxukbudgettax/will-the-uk-raise-taxes-in-the-october-budget/kxukbudgettax-26oct29","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUKBUDGETTAX-26OCT29-YES","event_id":"KXUKBUDGETTAX-26OCT29","slug":"KXUKBUDGETTAX-26OCT29-YES","question":"Will the October 28, 2026 UK Budget raise taxes on net?","group_item_title":"Yes","description":"If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces tax-policy measures first officially announced in the Budget presented on October 28, 2026 whose combined effect increases UK tax receipts relative to the pre-Budget baseline across the full forecast period in HM Treasury's final Budget policy-decisions scorecard before Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:\n\nFormal signing of treaties\nParliamentary approval with binding effect\nOfficial ratification\nFormal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority\nOfficial statements by authorized ministers\nOfficial press releases\nFormal declarations during government proceedings\nOfficial statements to international bodies\n\nPhased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.\n\nThe following do NOT qualify:\n\nPreliminary discussions\nConditional agreements contingent on circumstances\nOpposition party statements\nLeaked documents\nThink-tank recommendations\nGeneral aspirations without specific commitment\nDraft legislation without approval\nRegional actions (unless specified)\nRetraction of previously announced commitments\n\nThe net effect on tax receipts is calculated using the tax components of HM Treasury's final Budget policy-decisions scorecard and accompanying policy costings. The calculation sums qualifying tax components across all forecast-year columns, counting each once regardless of the Tax or Spend row label. Tax-receipt increases count positively and tax-receipt reductions negatively; spending components are disregarded. OBR's online scorecard may supply the component breakdown, but HM Treasury's published tax-component costings control any discrepancy.\n\nMeasures first officially announced before the Budget, including before market Issuance, are excluded even if reproduced in its documents or scorecard. Spending changes, forecast revisions and actual tax collections do NOT count. The sum must be strictly positive; zero or a negative sum resolves to NO. Measures need not be legislated or in force. Only the Budget presented on October 28, 2026 qualifies; a postponed Budget does NOT count.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.07999999999999996,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-08T22:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-11-05T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-10-29T03:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-10-03T00:15:21.167167Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-03T00:15:21.167167Z","added_at":"2026-09-08T22:02:14.819640Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxukbudgettax/will-the-uk-raise-taxes-in-the-october-budget/kxukbudgettax-26oct29","event_title":"Will the UK raise taxes in the October Budget?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXUKBUDGETTAX-26OCT29","as_of":"2026-10-03T00:17:36.006567Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will the UK raise taxes in the October Budget?\" — top market at 0% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}