{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","ticker":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12692845.35,"volume_24hr":466104.57999999996,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.85208511352539,"normalized_volume":69.6235580444336,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":4323095.39,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 20, 2029","top_outcome_probability":0.77,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":416.82,"updated_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.530068Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.530068Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","chart_24h":[495302.2,502405.75,486867.88,480659.92,469894.0,464730.84,402306.35,397441.27999999997,399214.0,394602.96,390585.98000000004,424702.52,425131.52999999997,420467.38,420335.6,457483.21,500615.8,506962.35,508328.02,534616.31,528690.7999999999,533103.6,528738.93,556060.66,548979.07,569887.3,578654.64,582954.5700000001,585958.84,501035.49,423639.52,407614.81,417218.89,440855.49000000005,448905.1],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","group_item_title":"Before Jan 20, 2029","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.\n\nClarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose \"verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.\" A restriction is \"verifiable\" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event. Accordingly, a bare pledge not to develop or pursue nuclear weapons, unaccompanied by any concrete limit on Iran's nuclear materials, activities, or facilities, does not on its own satisfy criterion (1). Conversely, a commitment to completely 'stop' or ‘suspend’ a specific nuclear activity (such as uranium enrichment) establishes a concrete prohibition (an implicit limit of zero) and qualifies as a restriction, whereas a vague promise to 'reduce' activities without a defined metric or monitoring mechanism does not. The enumerated examples (limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations) are illustrative and not exhaustive: a formal, verifiable commitment to remove, transfer, or cap Iran's stock of enriched uranium, confirmable by the receiving state or an oversight body, is a restriction on Iran's nuclear program and satisfies criterion (1). In every case, criterion (2) must independently be met.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.77,0.22999999999999998],"probability":0.77,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-14T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","volume":51567.78,"volume_24hr":191.33,"prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":416.82,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.130906105041504,"normalized_volume":34.281455993652344,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":[0.76,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.77,0.77]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","group_item_title":"Before 2028","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.\n\nClarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose \"verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.\" A restriction is \"verifiable\" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event. Accordingly, a bare pledge not to develop or pursue nuclear weapons, unaccompanied by any concrete limit on Iran's nuclear materials, activities, or facilities, does not on its own satisfy criterion (1). Conversely, a commitment to completely 'stop' or ‘suspend’ a specific nuclear activity (such as uranium enrichment) establishes a concrete prohibition (an implicit limit of zero) and qualifies as a restriction, whereas a vague promise to 'reduce' activities without a defined metric or monitoring mechanism does not. The enumerated examples (limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations) are illustrative and not exhaustive: a formal, verifiable commitment to remove, transfer, or cap Iran's stock of enriched uranium, confirmable by the receiving state or an oversight body, is a restriction on Iran's nuclear program and satisfies criterion (1). In every case, criterion (2) must independently be met.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.69,0.31000000000000005],"probability":0.69,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-14T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","volume":46089.65,"volume_24hr":194.95,"prob_24h_change":-0.030000000000000027,"volume_24h_change":-241.97000000000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.762645721435547,"normalized_volume":33.57548904418945,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-17T01:51:35.874896Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T01:35:05.820276Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":[0.72,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.69]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","group_item_title":"Before 2027","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.\n\nClarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose \"verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.\" A restriction is \"verifiable\" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event. Accordingly, a bare pledge not to develop or pursue nuclear weapons, unaccompanied by any concrete limit on Iran's nuclear materials, activities, or facilities, does not on its own satisfy criterion (1). Conversely, a commitment to completely 'stop' or ‘suspend’ a specific nuclear activity (such as uranium enrichment) establishes a concrete prohibition (an implicit limit of zero) and qualifies as a restriction, whereas a vague promise to 'reduce' activities without a defined metric or monitoring mechanism does not. The enumerated examples (limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations) are illustrative and not exhaustive: a formal, verifiable commitment to remove, transfer, or cap Iran's stock of enriched uranium, confirmable by the receiving state or an oversight body, is a restriction on Iran's nuclear program and satisfies criterion (1). In every case, criterion (2) must independently be met.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.61,0.39],"probability":0.61,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","volume":1065763.96,"volume_24hr":6865.92,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-3149.630000000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.353721618652344,"normalized_volume":56.088661193847656,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":[0.61,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.61]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","group_item_title":"Before December","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.\n\nClarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose \"verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.\" A restriction is \"verifiable\" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event. Accordingly, a bare pledge not to develop or pursue nuclear weapons, unaccompanied by any concrete limit on Iran's nuclear materials, activities, or facilities, does not on its own satisfy criterion (1). Conversely, a commitment to completely 'stop' or ‘suspend’ a specific nuclear activity (such as uranium enrichment) establishes a concrete prohibition (an implicit limit of zero) and qualifies as a restriction, whereas a vague promise to 'reduce' activities without a defined metric or monitoring mechanism does not. The enumerated examples (limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations) are illustrative and not exhaustive: a formal, verifiable commitment to remove, transfer, or cap Iran's stock of enriched uranium, confirmable by the receiving state or an oversight body, is a restriction on Iran's nuclear program and satisfies criterion (1). In every case, criterion (2) must independently be met.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.53,0.47],"probability":0.53,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-21T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-12-01T15:00:00Z","volume":41719.51,"volume_24hr":1877.99,"prob_24h_change":-0.05999999999999994,"volume_24h_change":1160.44,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.621334075927734,"normalized_volume":32.940185546875,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","added_at":"2026-05-21T14:23:08.470210Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":[0.59,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.53]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","group_item_title":"Before November","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.\n\nClarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose \"verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.\" A restriction is \"verifiable\" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event. Accordingly, a bare pledge not to develop or pursue nuclear weapons, unaccompanied by any concrete limit on Iran's nuclear materials, activities, or facilities, does not on its own satisfy criterion (1). Conversely, a commitment to completely 'stop' or ‘suspend’ a specific nuclear activity (such as uranium enrichment) establishes a concrete prohibition (an implicit limit of zero) and qualifies as a restriction, whereas a vague promise to 'reduce' activities without a defined metric or monitoring mechanism does not. The enumerated examples (limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations) are illustrative and not exhaustive: a formal, verifiable commitment to remove, transfer, or cap Iran's stock of enriched uranium, confirmable by the receiving state or an oversight body, is a restriction on Iran's nuclear program and satisfies criterion (1). In every case, criterion (2) must independently be met.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.49,0.51],"probability":0.49,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-21T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-11-01T15:00:00Z","volume":57962.43,"volume_24hr":3673.45,"prob_24h_change":-0.040000000000000036,"volume_24h_change":1250.7000000000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.591150283813477,"normalized_volume":35.019142150878906,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","added_at":"2026-05-21T14:23:08.470210Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":[0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","group_item_title":"Before October","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.\n\nClarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose \"verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.\" A restriction is \"verifiable\" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event. Accordingly, a bare pledge not to develop or pursue nuclear weapons, unaccompanied by any concrete limit on Iran's nuclear materials, activities, or facilities, does not on its own satisfy criterion (1). Conversely, a commitment to completely 'stop' or ‘suspend’ a specific nuclear activity (such as uranium enrichment) establishes a concrete prohibition (an implicit limit of zero) and qualifies as a restriction, whereas a vague promise to 'reduce' activities without a defined metric or monitoring mechanism does not. The enumerated examples (limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations) are illustrative and not exhaustive: a formal, verifiable commitment to remove, transfer, or cap Iran's stock of enriched uranium, confirmable by the receiving state or an oversight body, is a restriction on Iran's nuclear program and satisfies criterion (1). In every case, criterion (2) must independently be met.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.42,0.5800000000000001],"probability":0.42,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-21T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-10-01T14:00:00Z","volume":98550.42,"volume_24hr":6728.99,"prob_24h_change":-0.06,"volume_24h_change":-5915.4800000000005,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.080415725708008,"normalized_volume":38.495243072509766,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","added_at":"2026-05-21T14:23:08.470210Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.41]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","group_item_title":"Before September","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.\n\nClarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose \"verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.\" A restriction is \"verifiable\" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event. Accordingly, a bare pledge not to develop or pursue nuclear weapons, unaccompanied by any concrete limit on Iran's nuclear materials, activities, or facilities, does not on its own satisfy criterion (1). Conversely, a commitment to completely 'stop' or ‘suspend’ a specific nuclear activity (such as uranium enrichment) establishes a concrete prohibition (an implicit limit of zero) and qualifies as a restriction, whereas a vague promise to 'reduce' activities without a defined metric or monitoring mechanism does not. The enumerated examples (limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations) are illustrative and not exhaustive: a formal, verifiable commitment to remove, transfer, or cap Iran's stock of enriched uranium, confirmable by the receiving state or an oversight body, is a restriction on Iran's nuclear program and satisfies criterion (1). In every case, criterion (2) must independently be met.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.27,0.73],"probability":0.27,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-09T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-01T14:00:00Z","volume":567753.87,"volume_24hr":14795.57,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":-19877.879999999997,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.313865661621094,"normalized_volume":51.11417770385742,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-17T02:46:33.593751Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T02:44:35.632587Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":[0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.27]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?","group_item_title":"Before August","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.\n\nClarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose \"verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.\" A restriction is \"verifiable\" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event. Accordingly, a bare pledge not to develop or pursue nuclear weapons, unaccompanied by any concrete limit on Iran's nuclear materials, activities, or facilities, does not on its own satisfy criterion (1). Conversely, a commitment to completely 'stop' or ‘suspend’ a specific nuclear activity (such as uranium enrichment) establishes a concrete prohibition (an implicit limit of zero) and qualifies as a restriction, whereas a vague promise to 'reduce' activities without a defined metric or monitoring mechanism does not. The enumerated examples (limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations) are illustrative and not exhaustive: a formal, verifiable commitment to remove, transfer, or cap Iran's stock of enriched uranium, confirmable by the receiving state or an oversight body, is a restriction on Iran's nuclear program and satisfies criterion (1). In every case, criterion (2) must independently be met.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.88],"probability":0.12,"spread":0.010000000000000009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-05T03:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-08-01T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-01T14:00:00Z","volume":1439028.26,"volume_24hr":60196.97,"prob_24h_change":-0.14,"volume_24h_change":-4043.739999999998,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.44302749633789,"normalized_volume":58.54182815551758,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":[0.27,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.12]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","group_item_title":"Before July","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.\n\nClarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose \"verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.\" A restriction is \"verifiable\" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event. Accordingly, a bare pledge not to develop or pursue nuclear weapons, unaccompanied by any concrete limit on Iran's nuclear materials, activities, or facilities, does not on its own satisfy criterion (1). Conversely, a commitment to completely 'stop' or ‘suspend’ a specific nuclear activity (such as uranium enrichment) establishes a concrete prohibition (an implicit limit of zero) and qualifies as a restriction, whereas a vague promise to 'reduce' activities without a defined metric or monitoring mechanism does not. The enumerated examples (limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations) are illustrative and not exhaustive: a formal, verifiable commitment to remove, transfer, or cap Iran's stock of enriched uranium, confirmable by the receiving state or an oversight body, is a restriction on Iran's nuclear program and satisfies criterion (1). In every case, criterion (2) must independently be met.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.009999999999999995,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-09T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T14:00:00Z","volume":4050341.94,"volume_24hr":371579.41,"prob_24h_change":-0.1,"volume_24h_change":-21173.179999999993,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.321529388427734,"normalized_volume":67.39854431152344,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T02:58:27.775652Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":[0.2,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26APR","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26APR","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before April?","group_item_title":"Before April","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":1.0,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-02-05T03:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-04-01T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-01T14:00:00Z","volume":1773725.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":60.281307220458984,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:42.173535Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:42.173535Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","group_item_title":"Before June","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":1.0,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-03-12T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-06-01T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-01T14:00:00Z","volume":3392806.47,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":65.83822631835938,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-02T14:10:34.441689Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-02T13:56:15.857507Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY","event_id":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","slug":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY","question":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?","group_item_title":"Before May","description":"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. \"A new Iran-US nuclear deal\" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.\n\nClarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments. It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution. Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has \"agreed to, signed, or accepted\" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":1.0,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-03-12T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-05-01T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-05-01T14:00:00Z","volume":1881261.06,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":60.775508880615234,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:42.173535Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:42.173535Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27","event_title":"US-Iran nuclear deal?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27","as_of":"2026-06-17T02:59:52.525876Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"US-Iran nuclear deal?\" — top market at 8% probability across 12 outcomes","source_url":null}}