{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSFALKLANDS-27JAN01","ticker":"KXUSFALKLANDS-27JAN01","slug":"KXUSFALKLANDS-27JAN01","title":"Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T23:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":186.97,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.456293106079102,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":186.97,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Yes","top_outcome_probability":0.13,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-05T21:30:40.027354Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-05T21:30:40.027354Z","added_at":"2026-09-03T23:30:53.803635Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusfalklands/will-the-us-recognize-argentine-sovereignty-over-the-falklands/kxusfalklands-27jan01","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSFALKLANDS-27JAN01","event_id":"KXUSFALKLANDS-27JAN01","slug":"KXUSFALKLANDS-27JAN01","question":"Will the US agree to or announce recognition of Argentina's sovereignty over the Falkland Islands before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Yes","description":"If the US agrees to or announces recognition of Argentina's sovereignty over the Falkland Islands before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nA definitive official announcement made before the deadline qualifies even if recognition takes effect later. A statement that only acknowledges Argentina's claim, reviews U.S. policy, supports negotiations, recognizes de facto U.K. administration, opposes the U.K. without recognizing Argentina, or concerns practical cooperation or resources does NOT qualify.\n\nAn agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:\n\nFormal signing of treaties\nParliamentary approval with binding effect\nOfficial ratification\nFormal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority\nOfficial statements by authorized ministers\nOfficial press releases\nFormal declarations during government proceedings\nOfficial statements to international bodies\n\nPhased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.\n\nThe following do NOT qualify:\n\nPreliminary discussions\nConditional agreements contingent on circumstances\nOpposition party statements\nLeaked documents\nThink-tank recommendations\nGeneral aspirations without specific commitment\nDraft legislation without approval\nRegional actions (unless specified)\nRetraction of previously announced commitments","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.009999999999999995,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T23:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":186.97,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.535431861877441,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Argentina","United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T00:55:03.334541Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T00:55:03.334541Z","added_at":"2026-09-03T23:30:53.876273Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusfalklands/will-the-us-recognize-argentine-sovereignty-over-the-falklands/kxusfalklands-27jan01","event_title":"Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXUSFALKLANDS-27JAN01","as_of":"2026-09-08T22:58:39.836667Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?\" — top market at 13% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}