{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","ticker":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","slug":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","title":"Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":517.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.728562355041504,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":517.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Formal 16-year extension","top_outcome_probability":0.62,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-517.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T02:17:44.933212Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T02:17:44.933212Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T16:37:30.868743Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusmcaoutcomes/which-usmca-outcomes-will-occur-in-2026/kxusmcaoutcomes-27","chart_24h":[467.0,67.0,0.0],"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-16Y","event_id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","slug":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-16Y","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Formal 16-year extension","description":"If the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term  after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.62,0.38],"probability":0.62,"spread":0.07000000000000006,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":517.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-517.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.16580867767334,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Mexico","Canada"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T16:37:31.005928Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusmcaoutcomes/which-usmca-outcomes-will-occur-in-2026/kxusmcaoutcomes-27","event_title":"Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-AMEND","event_id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","slug":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-AMEND","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3 before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Formal USMCA amendment","description":"If an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3  after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.08000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Canada","Mexico","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T16:37:31.005928Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusmcaoutcomes/which-usmca-outcomes-will-occur-in-2026/kxusmcaoutcomes-27","event_title":"Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-CANW","event_id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","slug":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-CANW","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Canadian withdrawal notice","description":"If Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6  after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.07999999999999999,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Canada","Mexico","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T16:37:31.005928Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusmcaoutcomes/which-usmca-outcomes-will-occur-in-2026/kxusmcaoutcomes-27","event_title":"Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-MEXW","event_id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","slug":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-MEXW","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Mexico provides the United States and Canada written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Mexican withdrawal notice","description":"If Mexico provides the United States and Canada written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6  after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.07999999999999999,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Mexico","United States","Canada"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T16:37:31.005928Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusmcaoutcomes/which-usmca-outcomes-will-occur-in-2026/kxusmcaoutcomes-27","event_title":"Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-TRI","event_id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","slug":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-TRI","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Trilateral revised deal","description":"If the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures  after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.08000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Mexico","Canada"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T16:37:31.005928Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusmcaoutcomes/which-usmca-outcomes-will-occur-in-2026/kxusmcaoutcomes-27","event_title":"Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-USCAN","event_id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","slug":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-USCAN","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"U.S.–Canada interim agreement","description":"If the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures  after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.08000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Canada","Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T16:37:31.005928Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusmcaoutcomes/which-usmca-outcomes-will-occur-in-2026/kxusmcaoutcomes-27","event_title":"Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-USMEX","event_id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","slug":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-USMEX","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"U.S.–Mexico interim agreement","description":"If the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures  after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.08000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Mexico","Canada"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T16:37:31.005928Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusmcaoutcomes/which-usmca-outcomes-will-occur-in-2026/kxusmcaoutcomes-27","event_title":"Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-USW","event_id":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","slug":"KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-USW","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"U.S. withdrawal notice","description":"If the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6  after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nThis event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.\n\nOnly reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.07999999999999999,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T16:30:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Canada","Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T16:07:19.939098Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T16:37:31.005928Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusmcaoutcomes/which-usmca-outcomes-will-occur-in-2026/kxusmcaoutcomes-27","event_title":"Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27","as_of":"2026-07-25T17:54:51.540100Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?\" — top market at 62% probability across 8 outcomes","source_url":null}}