{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","ticker":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","slug":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","title":"Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":35395.12,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.887876510620117,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":24004.75,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Delcy Rodríguez","top_outcome_probability":0.9,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-06T23:46:15.136219Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-06T23:46:15.136219Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T21:05:34.734528Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvenezdefacto/who-will-de-facto-lead-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026/kxvenezdefacto-27jan01","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-DROD","event_id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","slug":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-DROD","question":"Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"Delcy Rodríguez","description":"If Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor the purposes of this Contract, \"Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela\" means that, at the end of 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Delcy Rodríguez's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.\n\nThe Source Agency's determination of whether Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:\n\nControl over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela\nIssuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction\nControl over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\n\nThe following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:\n\nHolding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nServing in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nNomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority\nStatus as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority\nSymbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Delcy Rodríguez performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement\nForeign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction\nLeadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Delcy Rodríguez\nHolding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person.\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.9,0.09999999999999998],"probability":0.9,"spread":0.039999999999999925,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","volume":14567.74,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.16973114013672,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T00:06:23.869936Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T00:06:23.869936Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T21:05:34.827862Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvenezdefacto/who-will-de-facto-lead-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026/kxvenezdefacto-27jan01","event_title":"Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.9,0.9,0.9]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-MMAC","event_id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","slug":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-MMAC","question":"Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"María Corina Machado","description":"If María Corina Machado de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor the purposes of this Contract, \"María Corina Machado de facto holds head of state of Venezuela\" means that, at the end of 2026, María Corina Machado is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of María Corina Machado's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.\n\nThe Source Agency's determination of whether María Corina Machado de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:\n\nControl over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela\nIssuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction\nControl over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\n\nThe following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:\n\nHolding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nServing in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nNomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority\nStatus as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority\nSymbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and María Corina Machado performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement\nForeign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction\nLeadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to María Corina Machado\nHolding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person.\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.05,0.95],"probability":0.05,"spread":0.010000000000000002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","volume":4428.46,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":21.60721206665039,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T12:55:10.632555Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-24T22:42:38.131118Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T21:05:34.827862Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvenezdefacto/who-will-de-facto-lead-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026/kxvenezdefacto-27jan01","event_title":"Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.05,0.05]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-NMAD","event_id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","slug":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-NMAD","question":"Will Nicolás Maduro de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"Nicolás Maduro","description":"If Nicolás Maduro de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor the purposes of this Contract, \"Nicolás Maduro de facto holds head of state of Venezuela\" means that, at the end of 2026, Nicolás Maduro is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Nicolás Maduro's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.\n\nThe Source Agency's determination of whether Nicolás Maduro de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:\n\nControl over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela\nIssuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction\nControl over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\n\nThe following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:\n\nHolding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nServing in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nNomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority\nStatus as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority\nSymbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Nicolás Maduro performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement\nForeign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction\nLeadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Nicolás Maduro\nHolding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person.\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","volume":2874.32,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.440353393554688,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T20:38:50.213962Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-17T23:46:15.060645Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T21:05:34.827862Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvenezdefacto/who-will-de-facto-lead-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026/kxvenezdefacto-27jan01","event_title":"Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.02,0.02]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-VLOP","event_id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","slug":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-VLOP","question":"Will Vladimir Padrino López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"Vladimir Padrino López","description":"If Vladimir Padrino López de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor the purposes of this Contract, \"Vladimir Padrino López de facto holds head of state of Venezuela\" means that, at the end of 2026, Vladimir Padrino López is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Vladimir Padrino López's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.\n\nThe Source Agency's determination of whether Vladimir Padrino López de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:\n\nControl over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela\nIssuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction\nControl over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\n\nThe following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:\n\nHolding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nServing in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nNomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority\nStatus as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority\nSymbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Vladimir Padrino López performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement\nForeign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction\nLeadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Vladimir Padrino López\nHolding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person.\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","volume":2645.32,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.03727912902832,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T20:38:50.213962Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-17T23:46:15.060645Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T21:05:34.827862Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvenezdefacto/who-will-de-facto-lead-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026/kxvenezdefacto-27jan01","event_title":"Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.02,0.02]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-DCAB","event_id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","slug":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-DCAB","question":"Will Diosdado Cabello de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"Diosdado Cabello","description":"If Diosdado Cabello de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor the purposes of this Contract, \"Diosdado Cabello de facto holds head of state of Venezuela\" means that, at the end of 2026, Diosdado Cabello is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Diosdado Cabello's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.\n\nThe Source Agency's determination of whether Diosdado Cabello de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:\n\nControl over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela\nIssuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction\nControl over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\n\nThe following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:\n\nHolding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nServing in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nNomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority\nStatus as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority\nSymbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Diosdado Cabello performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement\nForeign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction\nLeadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Diosdado Cabello\nHolding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person.\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","volume":2692.32,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.122426986694336,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T23:15:59.817942Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-18T04:07:46.167052Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T21:05:34.827862Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvenezdefacto/who-will-de-facto-lead-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026/kxvenezdefacto-27jan01","event_title":"Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-EGON","event_id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","slug":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-EGON","question":"Will Edmundo González Urrutia de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"Edmundo González Urrutia","description":"If Edmundo González Urrutia de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor the purposes of this Contract, \"Edmundo González Urrutia de facto holds head of state of Venezuela\" means that, at the end of 2026, Edmundo González Urrutia is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Edmundo González Urrutia's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.\n\nThe Source Agency's determination of whether Edmundo González Urrutia de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:\n\nControl over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela\nIssuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction\nControl over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\n\nThe following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:\n\nHolding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nServing in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nNomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority\nStatus as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority\nSymbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Edmundo González Urrutia performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement\nForeign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction\nLeadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Edmundo González Urrutia\nHolding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person.\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","volume":2825.32,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.35652732849121,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T15:28:43.962251Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-18T20:04:12.929982Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T21:05:34.827862Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvenezdefacto/who-will-de-facto-lead-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026/kxvenezdefacto-27jan01","event_title":"Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-GLOP","event_id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","slug":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-GLOP","question":"Will Gustavo González López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"Gustavo González López","description":"If Gustavo González López de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor the purposes of this Contract, \"Gustavo González López de facto holds head of state of Venezuela\" means that, at the end of 2026, Gustavo González López is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Gustavo González López's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.\n\nThe Source Agency's determination of whether Gustavo González López de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:\n\nControl over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela\nIssuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction\nControl over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\n\nThe following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:\n\nHolding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nServing in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nNomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority\nStatus as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority\nSymbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Gustavo González López performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement\nForeign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction\nLeadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Gustavo González López\nHolding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person.\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","volume":2650.32,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.04640007019043,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T18:42:18.363732Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-29T21:31:28.838615Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T21:05:34.827862Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvenezdefacto/who-will-de-facto-lead-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026/kxvenezdefacto-27jan01","event_title":"Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-JROD","event_id":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","slug":"KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-JROD","question":"Will Jorge Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"Jorge Rodríguez","description":"If Jorge Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nFor the purposes of this Contract, \"Jorge Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela\" means that, at the end of 2026, Jorge Rodríguez is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Jorge Rodríguez's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.\n\nThe Source Agency's determination of whether Jorge Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:\n\nControl over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela\nIssuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction\nControl over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\nTreatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela\n\nThe following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:\n\nHolding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nServing in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\nNomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority\nStatus as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority\nSymbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Jorge Rodríguez performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement\nForeign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction\nLeadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Jorge Rodríguez\nHolding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person.\n\nIf, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T21:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","volume":2711.32,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.156478881835938,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T15:28:43.962251Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-18T20:04:12.929982Z","added_at":"2026-05-14T21:05:34.827862Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvenezdefacto/who-will-de-facto-lead-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026/kxvenezdefacto-27jan01","event_title":"Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:27:18.455853Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?\" — top market at 90% probability across 8 outcomes","source_url":null}}