{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXWALESREFCALL-30JAN01","ticker":"KXWALESREFCALL-30JAN01","slug":"KXWALESREFCALL-30JAN01","title":"Will Wales announce an independence referendum?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-13T20:00:00Z","end_date":"2030-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Yes","top_outcome_probability":0.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-13T20:05:04.722360Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-13T20:05:04.722360Z","added_at":"2026-09-13T20:05:04.722360Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwalesrefcall/will-wales-announce-an-independence-referendum/kxwalesrefcall-30jan01","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXWALESREFCALL-30JAN01-YES","event_id":"KXWALESREFCALL-30JAN01","slug":"KXWALESREFCALL-30JAN01-YES","question":"Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?","group_item_title":"Yes","description":"If Wales agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a legally authorized Welsh authority to hold a referendum on Welsh independence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n---\n\nAn agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:\n\nFormal signing of treaties\nParliamentary approval with binding effect\nOfficial ratification\nFormal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority\nOfficial statements by authorized ministers\nOfficial press releases\nFormal declarations during government proceedings\nOfficial statements to international bodies\n\nPhased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.\n\nThe following do NOT qualify:\n\nPreliminary discussions\nConditional agreements contingent on circumstances\nOpposition party statements\nLeaked documents\nThink-tank recommendations\nGeneral aspirations without specific commitment\nDraft legislation without approval\nRegional actions (unless specified)\nRetraction of previously announced commitments\n\nConfirmation must come from the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a Welsh authority legally empowered to commit to holding the referendum. A binding legal instrument qualifies only if it commits to the poll; merely granting a power to call one does not qualify. A polling date is not required, and voting may occur after January 1, 2030. Party pledges, non-binding Senedd motions, consultations, requests for permission, preparations, and general statements of intent do not qualify. Announcements made before issuance do not qualify.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.009999999999999981,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-13T20:00:00Z","end_date":"2030-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-13T23:18:24.804041Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-13T23:18:24.804041Z","added_at":"2026-09-13T20:05:04.853246Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwalesrefcall/will-wales-announce-an-independence-referendum/kxwalesrefcall-30jan01","event_title":"Will Wales announce an independence referendum?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/kalshi/KXWALESREFCALL-30JAN01","as_of":"2026-09-14T07:59:11.752462Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Kalshi): \"Will Wales announce an independence referendum?\" — top market at 0% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}