This market resolves \"YES\" if the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA APHIS) has confirmed a cumulative total of New World screwworm (NWS) animal cases in the United States equal to or greater than the number specified in the title, counting all cases with a Confirmed Date on or before August 31, 2026.
\"Animal cases\" means the cumulative \"Total Animal Cases\" figure reported on the USDA APHIS confirmed-detections dashboard (domestic plus wildlife/feral), counted since the first U.S. case on June 3, 2026, regardless of whether a case is later marked active or inactive. Fly-trap detections and human cases are excluded.
The resolution source is the official USDA APHIS confirmed-detections dashboard: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/current-status/us-confirmed-cases-new-world — read as of its 6:00 p.m. ET update on September 3, 2026, to allow for confirmation lag on late-August cases.
If the dashboard page is unavailable at the time of resolution, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
As of the July 5, 2026 update, 32 cases had been confirmed.
","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.622,0.378],"probability":0.622,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-07T16:28:27.327000Z","end_date":"2026-09-04T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":105.485,"volume_24hr":52.766,"prob_24h_change":0.181,"volume_24h_change":35.038999999999994,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.568982124328613,"normalized_volume":10.659141540527344,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-16T03:23:49.455827Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-16T03:23:46.899355Z","added_at":"2026-07-07T16:45:56.070662Z","url":"https://limitless.exchange/markets/50-1783441575162","event_title":"US New World screwworm above __ animal cases by end of August 2026","chart_24h":[0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.441,0.622,0.622,0.622,0.622,0.622,0.622,0.622,0.622]},{"source":"limitless","id":"315175","event_id":"10012513","slug":"75-1783441575168","question":"75","group_item_title":"75","description":"This market resolves \"YES\" if the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA APHIS) has confirmed a cumulative total of New World screwworm (NWS) animal cases in the United States equal to or greater than the number specified in the title, counting all cases with a Confirmed Date on or before August 31, 2026.
\"Animal cases\" means the cumulative \"Total Animal Cases\" figure reported on the USDA APHIS confirmed-detections dashboard (domestic plus wildlife/feral), counted since the first U.S. case on June 3, 2026, regardless of whether a case is later marked active or inactive. Fly-trap detections and human cases are excluded.
The resolution source is the official USDA APHIS confirmed-detections dashboard: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/current-status/us-confirmed-cases-new-world — read as of its 6:00 p.m. ET update on September 3, 2026, to allow for confirmation lag on late-August cases.
If the dashboard page is unavailable at the time of resolution, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
As of the July 5, 2026 update, 32 cases had been confirmed.
","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.129,0.871],"probability":0.129,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-07T16:28:28.461000Z","end_date":"2026-09-04T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":65.742,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-23.566000000000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.632386207580566,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-16T03:23:49.455827Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-16T03:23:46.899355Z","added_at":"2026-07-07T16:45:56.070662Z","url":"https://limitless.exchange/markets/75-1783441575168","event_title":"US New World screwworm above __ animal cases by end of August 2026","chart_24h":[0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129,0.129]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/limitless/10012513","as_of":"2026-07-16T03:25:24.645260Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Limitless): \"US New World screwworm above __ animal cases by end of August 2026\" — top market at 62% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}