{"source":"limitless","id":"10013820","ticker":"10013820","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-1787664485687","title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","description":null,"image":"https://cdn.limitless.exchange/groups-logo/10013820/2646bf35-c8ab-45d0-8c5a-11ea84a85a7e.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-25T13:29:53.173000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Limitless","Politics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-27T07:55:17.871576Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T07:55:05.775969Z","added_at":"2026-08-26T20:05:40.096598Z","url":"https://limitless.exchange/markets/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-1787664485687","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"markets":[{"source":"limitless","id":"373926","event_id":"10013820","slug":"august-31-1787664485713","question":"August 31","group_item_title":"August 31","description":"<p>This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.</p><p><br></p><p>This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.</p><p><br></p><p>If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.</p><p><br></p><p>Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.</p><p><br></p><p>The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at <a href=\"https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c</a>.</p>","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-25T13:29:53.135000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen"],"updated_at":"2026-08-27T07:55:10.870464Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T07:55:07.575271Z","added_at":"2026-08-26T20:05:40.172468Z","url":"https://limitless.exchange/markets/august-31-1787664485713","event_title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5]},{"source":"limitless","id":"373923","event_id":"10013820","slug":"december-31-1787664485694","question":"December 31","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"<p>This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.</p><p><br></p><p>This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.</p><p><br></p><p>If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.</p><p><br></p><p>Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.</p><p><br></p><p>The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at <a href=\"https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c</a>.</p>","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.175,0.825],"probability":0.175,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-25T13:29:45.407000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen"],"updated_at":"2026-08-27T07:55:10.870464Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T07:55:07.575271Z","added_at":"2026-08-26T20:05:40.172468Z","url":"https://limitless.exchange/markets/december-31-1787664485694","event_title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175]},{"source":"limitless","id":"373924","event_id":"10013820","slug":"october-31-1787664485705","question":"October 31","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"<p>This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.</p><p><br></p><p>This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.</p><p><br></p><p>If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.</p><p><br></p><p>Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.</p><p><br></p><p>The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at <a href=\"https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c</a>.</p>","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1075,0.8925],"probability":0.1075,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-25T13:29:46.574000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen"],"updated_at":"2026-08-27T07:55:10.870464Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T07:55:07.575271Z","added_at":"2026-08-26T20:05:40.172468Z","url":"https://limitless.exchange/markets/october-31-1787664485705","event_title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.109,0.109,0.109,0.109,0.1075,0.1075,0.1075,0.1075,0.1075,0.1075,0.1075,0.1075,0.1075,0.1075,0.1075,0.1075,0.1075]},{"source":"limitless","id":"373925","event_id":"10013820","slug":"september-30-1787664485709","question":"September 30","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"<p>This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.</p><p><br></p><p>This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.</p><p><br></p><p>If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.</p><p><br></p><p>Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.</p><p><br></p><p>The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at <a href=\"https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c</a>.</p>","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.055,0.945],"probability":0.055,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-25T13:29:47.909000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen"],"updated_at":"2026-08-27T07:55:10.870464Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T07:55:07.575271Z","added_at":"2026-08-26T20:05:40.172468Z","url":"https://limitless.exchange/markets/september-30-1787664485709","event_title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/limitless/10013820","as_of":"2026-08-27T08:09:40.534821Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Limitless): \"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?\" — top market at 50% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}