{"source":"manifold","id":"0A50tdRQ6s","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-us-implement-some-form-of","title":"Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?","description":"Resolution Criteria\n\nThis market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2029, the United States federal government implements any form of capital control that significantly restricts the free flow of capital into or out of the country, with the following specifications:\n\nWhat WOULD count for YES resolution:\n\nBroad-based restrictions on U.S. citizens or residents transferring money abroad (e.g., annual limits on total foreign transfers per person)\n\nGeneral limits on foreign investment in U.S. assets that apply to multiple countries or regions\n\nMandatory approval processes for capital outflows above a certain threshold that apply universally\n\nNew taxes or fees specifically designed to discourage capital movement across borders (e.g., a \"Tobin tax\" on financial transactions)\n\nRestrictions on currency conversion for U.S. citizens or residents\n\nImplementation of a dual exchange rate system\n\nMandatory repatriation of foreign earnings by U.S. corporations\n\nRestrictions on Americans purchasing foreign securities\n\nWhat would NOT count for YES resolution:\n\nTargeted sanctions against specific countries (e.g., restrictions on investment in Russia, Iran, etc.)\n\nSanctions against individual entities or persons\n\nEnhanced reporting requirements that don't actually restrict capital movement\n\nAnti-money laundering or anti-terrorism financing measures\n\nNational security reviews of foreign investment (like CFIUS) unless substantially expanded to cover most capital flows\n\nCountry-specific restrictions affecting fewer than 10 countries, unless those countries collectively represent more than 50% of global GDP\n\nTemporary emergency measures lasting less than 10 days\n\n\nThe capital controls must be implemented by executive order, legislation, or formal regulation by a federal agency with appropriate authority, not merely proposed or under consideration. The market resolves to NO if no qualifying capital controls as described above are implemented by the end of December 31, 2028.\n\nUpdate 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that a 1% remittance tax on cash transfers (as passed by the House) would qualify for YES resolution if it goes into effect, even though the creator considers this a \"really minimal capital control.\"","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-09T23:25:48.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11110.27110182968,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.5779914855957,"liquidity":5000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["politics-default","world-default","technology-default","us-politics","economics-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.496154,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?","top_outcome_probability":0.496154,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-the-us-implement-some-form-of","chart_24h":[0.496154,0.496154],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"0A50tdRQ6s","event_id":"0A50tdRQ6s","slug":"will-the-us-implement-some-form-of","question":"Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolution Criteria\n\nThis market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2029, the United States federal government implements any form of capital control that significantly restricts the free flow of capital into or out of the country, with the following specifications:\n\nWhat WOULD count for YES resolution:\n\nBroad-based restrictions on U.S. citizens or residents transferring money abroad (e.g., annual limits on total foreign transfers per person)\n\nGeneral limits on foreign investment in U.S. assets that apply to multiple countries or regions\n\nMandatory approval processes for capital outflows above a certain threshold that apply universally\n\nNew taxes or fees specifically designed to discourage capital movement across borders (e.g., a \"Tobin tax\" on financial transactions)\n\nRestrictions on currency conversion for U.S. citizens or residents\n\nImplementation of a dual exchange rate system\n\nMandatory repatriation of foreign earnings by U.S. corporations\n\nRestrictions on Americans purchasing foreign securities\n\nWhat would NOT count for YES resolution:\n\nTargeted sanctions against specific countries (e.g., restrictions on investment in Russia, Iran, etc.)\n\nSanctions against individual entities or persons\n\nEnhanced reporting requirements that don't actually restrict capital movement\n\nAnti-money laundering or anti-terrorism financing measures\n\nNational security reviews of foreign investment (like CFIUS) unless substantially expanded to cover most capital flows\n\nCountry-specific restrictions affecting fewer than 10 countries, unless those countries collectively represent more than 50% of global GDP\n\nTemporary emergency measures lasting less than 10 days\n\n\nThe capital controls must be implemented by executive order, legislation, or formal regulation by a federal agency with appropriate authority, not merely proposed or under consideration. The market resolves to NO if no qualifying capital controls as described above are implemented by the end of December 31, 2028.\n\nUpdate 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that a 1% remittance tax on cash transfers (as passed by the House) would qualify for YES resolution if it goes into effect, even though the creator considers this a \"really minimal capital control.\"","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.496154,0.503846],"probability":0.496154,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-09T23:25:48.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11110.27110182968,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.5779914855957,"liquidity":5000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-06T21:09:28.745900Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-the-us-implement-some-form-of","event_title":"Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?","chart_24h":[0.496154,0.496154]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0A50tdRQ6s","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:36:00.312042Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?\" — top market at 50% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}