{"source":"manifold","id":"0GxQX0cM0yzVTzFmo70A","ticker":null,"slug":"will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-b-f14ba63daa47","title":"Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-22T10:38:16.719000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T21:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8305.538501960506,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.162731170654297,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["politics-default","nato","ukrainerussia-war","wars","russia"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.161168,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.161168,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-04T18:03:33.167796Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-04T18:03:33.167796Z","added_at":"2026-09-02T10:39:15.856295Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/htee/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-b-f14ba63daa47","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"0GxQX0cM0yzVTzFmo70A","event_id":"0GxQX0cM0yzVTzFmo70A","slug":"will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-b-f14ba63daa47","question":"Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.161168,0.838832],"probability":0.161168,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-22T10:38:16.719000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T21:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8305.538501960506,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.162731170654297,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-04T18:03:22.540217Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-04T18:03:22.540217Z","added_at":"2026-09-02T10:39:15.856295Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/htee/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-b-f14ba63daa47","event_title":"Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0GxQX0cM0yzVTzFmo70A","as_of":"2026-09-08T22:59:00.582362Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?\" — top market at 16% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}